Market Guides

EUR/USD: What Moves the Pair

EUR/USD: What Moves the Pair - MarketsAll Market Guides cover

EUR/USD is the price of one euro in US dollars. It is the most traded currency pair in the world, accounting for roughly a fifth of all foreign exchange turnover, and it moves mainly on the gap between European Central Bank and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations.

Key takeaways

  • EUR/USD traded about $2.03 trillion a day in April 2025, 21% of global FX turnover, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
  • The main driver is the interest rate outlook for the euro area against the United States. Inflation, jobs data and risk sentiment matter because they change that outlook.
  • The pair is most active between 12:00 and 16:00 UTC, when London and New York are both open.
  • One pip is 0.0001. On a standard lot of 100,000 euros, one pip is worth $10.
  • Tight spreads do not make the pair low risk. With leverage, a move of half a per cent can remove most of the margin on a position.
EUR/USD at a glance
What the quote meansUS dollars needed to buy one euro
Base / quote currencyEuro (EUR) / US dollar (USD)
Share of global FX turnover21%, about $2.03 trillion a day (BIS, April 2025)
Pip0.0001, the fourth decimal place
Pip value, 1.00 lot$10
Contract size, 1.00 lot100,000 EUR
Most active window12:00–16:00 UTC (London–New York overlap)
Central banks to watchEuropean Central Bank, Federal Reserve
Symbol at MarketsallEURUSD on MetaTrader 5 and Web Trader
Commission at MarketsallNone on currency trades; the cost is in the spread and any swap

What is EUR/USD and how is it quoted?

Every currency pair names two currencies. The first is the base, the second is the quote. In EUR/USD the euro is the base, so a price of 1.1000 means one euro costs 1.10 US dollars. If the price rises to 1.1100, the euro has strengthened or the dollar has weakened. From the chart alone you cannot tell which, and often it is both.

Your platform shows two prices. The lower one, the bid, is where you can sell. The higher one, the ask, is where you can buy. The difference is the spread, which is the main cost of a trade. EUR/USD usually has the tightest spread of any pair because so many banks and funds quote it at once. For a fuller introduction to pairs and quoting, start with what forex trading is and the guide to major, minor and exotic pairs.

The US dollar sits on one side of 89% of all currency trades and the euro is the second most traded currency. EUR/USD is where the two meet, which is why it is often treated as the reference price for the dollar itself. The US Dollar Index gives the euro a weight of more than half.

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Original illustration. EUR/USD compares the value of two currencies.

What moves EUR/USD?

An exchange rate is a comparison. EUR/USD rises when investors want euros more than dollars, and the biggest reason they switch is the return available on each. That puts central banks at the centre of the story.

The six drivers of EUR/USD
DriverHow it tends to workWhat to watch
Interest rate expectationsIf markets expect US rates to stay higher than euro area rates for longer, the dollar tends to gain and EUR/USD tends to fall. The reverse also holds.FOMC meetings, ECB decisions, two-year bond yields
InflationHigher than expected inflation raises the odds of tighter policy, which usually supports that currency.US CPI, euro area HICP flash estimate
Growth and jobsStrong data supports the currency through the same rate channel. The surprise against forecasts matters more than the number.Non-Farm Payrolls, PMI surveys, GDP
Risk sentimentIn market stress, money often moves into dollars, pushing EUR/USD lower even when the news is not about Europe.Equity indices, credit spreads, risk-on vs risk-off
Energy pricesThe euro area imports most of its energy. A sharp rise in oil or gas prices worsens its trade balance and tends to weigh on the euro.Brent crude, European gas prices
Politics and fiscal policyElections, budget disputes and trade policy can move the pair abruptly and with little warning.Election calendars, tariff announcements

Why the pair often moves before the announcement

Markets trade expectations. If a quarter-point cut from the ECB is fully expected, the cut itself may barely move the price. What moves it is the statement, the forecasts and the tone of the press conference. This is why markets often move before data is released, and why it helps to know what hawkish and dovish language sounds like. The cross-asset view is in how interest rates affect currencies, stocks, gold and bonds.

Tends to push EUR/USD upECB tighter than expectedWeak US data, Fed cuts pricedCalm markets, weaker dollarFalling energy pricesTends to push EUR/USD downFed tighter than expectedStrong US jobs or inflationMarket stress, dollar demandEnergy price spikes
Tendencies, not rules.

When is EUR/USD most active?

EUR/USD trades around the clock from Sunday evening to Friday evening, but activity is uneven. Most of the volume passes through London and New York, and the four hours when both are open carry the tightest spreads and the largest moves.

Overlap 12–16 0006121824 UTC Sydney 21–06 Tokyo 00–09 London 07–16 New York 12–21
Approximate session hours in UTC. Boundaries shift by an hour when Europe and the United States change their clocks, which happens on different dates.
Scheduled events that regularly move EUR/USD
EventLocal timeUTC (summer / winter)Frequency
ECB rate decision14:15 CET, press conference 14:4512:15 / 13:15Eight times a year
US CPI08:30 ET12:30 / 13:30Monthly
US Non-Farm Payrolls08:30 ET12:30 / 13:30Monthly, usually the first Friday
FOMC statement14:00 ET, press conference 14:3018:00 / 19:00Eight times a year

Spreads widen in the minutes around these releases and orders can fill away from the requested price. That is slippage, and it affects stop-loss orders as well. Session behaviour is covered in London vs New York sessions, when the forex market is most active and the full table of global market trading hours. You can track every release in the economic calendar.

EUR/USD pip value and position size

A pip in EUR/USD is 0.0001. Because the quote currency is the dollar, pip value in dollars is simple: multiply the position size in euros by 0.0001.

What one pip is worth in EUR/USD
Lot sizeUnits of EURValue of 1 pipValue of a 50-pip move
1.00 (standard)100,000$10.00$500
0.10 (mini)10,000$1.00$50
0.01 (micro)1,000$0.10$5

A worked example with leverage

Suppose EUR/USD is at 1.1000 (an illustrative price) and you open 0.10 lots. The position is worth 10,000 euros, or $11,000. At 1:200 leverage, the margin required is $55.

A 50-pip move against you, which is less than half a per cent of the price and well within a normal day, is a $50 loss. That is 91% of the margin posted. The market did not do anything unusual. The position was simply large relative to the money behind it. Position sizing starts from how much you are prepared to lose and works back to the lot size, and how leverage increases trading risk explains the mechanics in full.

How EUR/USD compares with other major pairs

EUR/USD vs USD/JPY vs GBP/USD
FeatureEUR/USDUSD/JPYGBP/USD
Turnover rank (BIS 2025)1st2nd3rd
Pip location4th decimal (0.0001)2nd decimal (0.01)4th decimal (0.0001)
Pip value per 1.00 lot$10, fixed1,000 yen, varies in dollars$10, fixed
Central banksECB, FedFed, Bank of JapanBank of England, Fed
Most activeLondon–New York overlapTokyo open and New YorkLondon morning and overlap
Typical characterDeep liquidity, tightest spreadsSensitive to US yields and intervention riskWider daily ranges, reacts strongly to UK data
Read moreThis guideUSD/JPY guideGBP/USD guide

Holding EUR/USD and GBP/USD in the same direction is not two independent trades. Both are largely a view on the dollar, so they tend to win or lose together. See correlated positions and the pair that isolates Europe from the dollar, EUR/GBP.

What it costs to trade EUR/USD as a CFD

At Marketsall you trade EUR/USD as a CFD. No euros or dollars are delivered; your account is credited or debited with the difference between your entry and exit price. The difference from the interbank market is explained in spot FX vs CFDs, and the instrument itself in what a CFD is.

Cost components
CostWhen it appliesNotes
SpreadEvery trade, at entryTightest during the overlap, wider late in the New York evening and around news
CommissionNot charged on currency trades at MarketsallCost is built into the spread
SwapPositions held past the daily rolloverA credit or debit based on the rate gap between the euro and the dollar. Applied three times on one day of the week to cover the weekend, see triple swap Wednesday
SlippageFast markets, gaps, newsNot a fee, but a real cost when fills differ from the requested price

Key risks

Leverage. The example above is the central risk. Liquidity makes EUR/USD cheap to trade, not safe to trade large.

Event risk. ECB and Fed decisions, CPI and payrolls can move the pair through a stop level before the order fills.

Weekend gaps. The market closes on Friday evening and reopens on Sunday evening. News in between can open the price well away from the close. See gap risk.

Concentrated dollar exposure. Several dollar pairs held together behave like one larger position.

Financing drag. A negative swap on a position held for weeks accumulates quietly.

Risk warning. Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk since leverage can work both to your advantage and disadvantage. As a result, the products offered on this website may not be suitable for all investors because of the risk of losing all of your invested capital. You should never invest money that you cannot afford to lose, and never trade with borrowed money.

How to trade EUR/USD at Marketsall

EUR/USD is listed as EURUSD under Currencies on MetaTrader 5 and Web Trader. Before a first trade, read the symbol's specification for contract size, margin and swap rates; how to read contract specifications on MT5 shows where to find them. Practise order entry on a demo account first, keeping in mind the differences described in demo vs live accounts. Decide the position size before you open the ticket, not after.

Frequently asked questions

What does EUR/USD mean?

EUR/USD is the exchange rate between the euro and the US dollar. The number shows how many US dollars one euro buys. A quote of 1.1000 means one euro costs $1.10. Buying the pair is a view that the euro will rise against the dollar; selling is the opposite view.

How much is one pip worth in EUR/USD?

One pip is 0.0001. On a standard lot of 100,000 euros a pip is worth $10, on a mini lot of 10,000 euros it is worth $1, and on a micro lot of 1,000 euros it is worth $0.10. The value is fixed in dollars because the dollar is the quote currency.

What time is EUR/USD most volatile?

The pair is most active between 12:00 and 16:00 UTC, when London and New York are both open. The sharpest moves usually follow scheduled releases inside or near that window: US CPI and Non-Farm Payrolls at 08:30 New York time, ECB decisions at 14:15 Central European Time and FOMC statements at 14:00 New York time.

Why does EUR/USD fall when US interest rates are expected to rise?

Higher expected US rates raise the return on dollar assets relative to euro assets. Investors shift towards dollars, demand for the dollar increases and EUR/USD falls. The move happens when expectations change, which is often before the central bank acts.

Is EUR/USD suitable for beginners?

EUR/USD has the tightest spreads and the most predictable execution of any pair, which makes it a common place to learn. It is not low risk. With leverage, ordinary daily moves can produce large losses relative to margin, so position size matters more than the choice of pair.

Gauge what EURUSD has priced in

Write down the outcome the market expects from the next ECB or Fed decision and how confident it looks. The odds can be read from rate futures and bond yields, as how markets price in expectations sets out.

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