🗓️ Daily Macro Recap – June 3, 2025
Markets hold steady as the week begins, with global investors turning cautious ahead of key economic data and central bank meetings. Equities remain broadly range-bound, bond markets show signs of stabilization after last week’s volatility, and the dollar holds firm—supported by hawkish Fed rhetoric and anticipation of Friday’s U.S. payrolls data.
🇺🇸 U.S. Markets Hold Steady Before Jobs Data
Previous Day Highlights:
- Equities: S&P 500 closed marginally lower (-0.1%) as investors awaited JOLTS data and Friday’s NFP report.
- Treasuries: 10-year yield was stable around 4.41%, pausing after last week’s surge.
- Dollar: DXY held above 104.0, supported by firm services PMI expectations and rate cut doubts.
- Key News:
- Fed’s Kashkari reiterated only one cut this year, possibly in December.
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in stronger than expected at 52.3 (vs 50.2 prior), reinforcing the narrative of economic resilience.
🇪🇺 Eurozone Awaits ECB Rate Decision
Previous Day Highlights:
- Equities: Euro Stoxx 50 ended flat as focus shifted to Thursday’s ECB rate decision.
- Bonds: German 10Y yields ticked down to 2.62% as dovish bets ahead of ECB mount.
- Currency: EUR/USD traded slightly weaker near 1.0880.
- Key News:
- Final eurozone manufacturing PMI revised higher to 47.3 from 47.0.
- ECB expected to cut rates by 25 bps this Thursday—first major central bank to ease.
🇬🇧 U.K. Markets Hold Steady Despite Housing Sector Weakness
Previous Day Highlights:
- Equities: FTSE 100 underperformed (-0.3%) due to weakness in commodity-linked stocks.
- Bonds: 10Y gilt yield fell to 4.18% amid softening inflation expectations.
- Currency: GBP/USD held around 1.2740.
- Key News:
- Nationwide House Price Index declined MoM, highlighting housing market fragility.
- Market expects BoE’s first cut around Q4 2025, lagging ECB.
🇯🇵 Japanese Equities Advance; BOJ Maintains Policy Caution
Previous Day Highlights:
- Equities: Nikkei 225 rose 0.8% on tech-led gains.
- Bonds: 10Y JGB yield remained firm near 1.03%.
- Currency: USD/JPY traded above 157.0, testing MoF’s FX tolerance.
- Key News:
- BOJ Governor Ueda stated no imminent rate hike, citing fragile consumption.
🇨🇳 Chinese Market Sentiment Improves on PMI and Stimulus Hints
Previous Day Highlights:
- Equities: Shanghai Composite gained 0.6% as sentiment improved after strong May holiday tourism data.
- Currency: USDCNY fixed at 7.2454, marginally stronger.
- Key News:
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI: 51.7 vs 51.5 expected – third straight expansion.
- Beijing reportedly mulling more targeted stimulus for real estate and manufacturing.
🌍 EMEA Markets Hold Steady Ahead of Key Inflation Releases
Türkiye:
- BIST 100: Closed flat, weighed by banking sector.
- USD/TRY: Hovered around 32.20.
- 10Y Bond Yield: 25.30% as inflation expectations remain high.
- Key News:
- May CPI is expected this week. Forecasts suggest annual inflation could hit 75%, marking a possible peak.
South Africa: ZAR strengthened slightly as post-election coalition talks continued.
Commodity Markets Mixed as Oil Rises, Gold Steadies
- Oil: Brent up 1.2% to $78.10 amid speculation of OPEC+ flexibility on production cuts after Sunday’s meeting.
- Gold: Steady at $2,338/oz as yields stabilize.
- Copper: +0.8% on strong China PMI data.