Trading Signals - 17 September 2026

26 trade ideas for 17 September 2026: 17 long and 9 short. Entry, stop and two targets are given for each, with the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.

Today's framework

The Fed raised rates yesterday and signalled that more is to come: the dollar is at a seven-week high, so most of the ideas that ran against the dollar have been closed or reversed. The Bank of England decides today, and the Bank of Japan tomorrow.

Core ideas

The core list is 13 positions: cryptocurrencies 5, indices 4, stocks 1, currencies 3. “Layer” is how firmly the idea is held — Core is a standing position, Tactical is held for the current setup only, and Trigger means nothing is done until the stated condition is met.

• 1. BTC — long. At 76,450 and it has absorbed three shocks in a row: the Clarity bill failing, $600 million of fund outflows in two days and the start of a new rate-hiking cycle. Even so, it held support at 75,000 and rose 0.76% yesterday. The options market is still supportive, so dips are being absorbed; traders who opened shorts after the decision could be squeezed on a return to 80,000. Action: long while it stays above 75,000, target 80,000. Invalidation: a close below 74,970.
• 2. ETH — long. At 2,442, up 1.56% yesterday and 10% ahead of Bitcoin over the past month. Support at 2,400 was tested on Fed night and held. Resistance is 2,666. Action: long in small size, target 2,600. Invalidation: a close below 2,356.
• 3. SOL — long. At 99.79 and the strongest name in the crypto core yesterday with a 2.73% gain; it is testing $100 again. Price turned up from the one-month low at 95.82, a level that has been tested twice and held. Action: long, target 110. Invalidation: a close below 95.82.
• 4. XRP — short. At 1.2979 and the weakest of the majors with a 7% weekly loss; it stayed flat yesterday while every other crypto rose. It is paying for having been the name most heavily positioned for Clarity, and it is 6% behind Bitcoin over the past month. Action: short, target 1.10. Invalidation: above 1.4961.
• 5. ADA — short. At 0.1967 and the strongest short setup on the list: the trend is down on every timeframe, price is well below its long-term average and it is 16% behind Bitcoin over the past month. The failure of Clarity hit second-tier coins hardest, because their institutional-demand stories depended on regulation. Action: short, target 0.1495. Invalidation: above 0.2282.
• 6. S&P 500 — long. At 7,552, having reversed after the Fed; the Dow fell 1.2% while the Nasdaq closed flat, so the selling was concentrated in energy and industrials, not in technology. Market breadth is still poor: 76 new highs against 430 new lows. US futures are up 0.5% today. Action: long in small size, target 7,700. Invalidation: a close below 7,508.
• 7. Nasdaq 100 — long. At 28,945 and the only US index to close flat yesterday; the chip index rose 0.6%, the first sign that the AI selling that began on Monday has stopped. Futures are up 0.6–0.7% today. Action: long, target 29,750. Invalidation: below 28,753.
• 8. DAX — long. At 25,538 and up 0.53% yesterday; European markets are expected to open 0.5% higher today. It is the first sign of a recovery after two weeks of selling, but it needs confirmation. Action: long on a daily close above 25,700. Invalidation: below 25,173.
• 9. FTSE 100 — long. At 10,688 after a 0.29% rise yesterday that turned it positive on the week; it remains Europe's most resilient index. The Bank of England decides today and rates are expected to be held. Action: long on a daily close above 10,750. Invalidation: below 10,586.
• 10. NVDA — long. At $213.90, up 0.82% yesterday. The recovery in the chip index supports Nvidia as well; price is 8% above its long-term average and, with a 4.3% weekly loss, the pullback looks complete. Action: long, built in stages, target 234.50. Invalidation: below 207.
• 11. EURUSD — short. At a seven-week low of 1.1468 and in a downtrend. The Fed raised rates yesterday and signalled that more is to come, and of its 18 members 16 expect at least one more hike by the end of the year; the dollar is at a seven-week high. We are closing the long idea and the direction is down. Action: short, target 1.1355. Invalidation: above 1.1680.
• 12. GBPUSD — long. At 1.3383 with a weekly loss of 1.2%. The Bank of England holds rates today; if the vote is split and there is a hint of a November hike, sterling recovers, while a fully dovish statement opens the way below 1.33. We are closing the long idea and hold no position before the decision. Action: long above 1.3446 if the tone after the decision is hawkish.
• 13. AUDUSD — long. At 0.7114, with price close to the one-month low; the trend is still up and the risk is small because the stop is very close — it is the tightest stop on the list today. Copper recovered 1.5% yesterday. Action: long in small size, target 0.7193. Invalidation: below 0.7061.

Additional ideas

13 ideas outside the core list, taken on their own setups. They carry no layer marking.

• 14. AMD — long. At $512.50 and today's strongest setup: two signals are positive at once, it is 34% ahead of the index over the past month and it rose 1.65% yesterday. The chip index gained 0.6% yesterday, its first clear recovery since the AI slowdown debate began; the selling is stopping. Action: long, target 600. Invalidation: below 454.
• 15. CVX — long. At $211.54 after a 2.9% fall yesterday, which made it one of the strongest setups on the list: two signals are positive at the same time, the stock is 5.6% ahead of the index over the past month and price has pulled back to its average. Energy was the weakest sector yesterday with a 3% loss, which opened up an entry. Action: long, target 229. Invalidation: below 200.
• 16. XOM — long. Down to $163.32 after a 3.5% fall yesterday, because oil fell sharply for a second day running on alternative cargoes from Oman. But the stock is still in an uptrend on every timeframe and price has settled on its one-month average; this is the pullback we have been waiting for over two weeks. Two of the pipeline's pumping stations are damaged and the repair timetable is uncertain. Action: long, target 177. Invalidation: below 154.
• 17. AAPL — long. At $332.41 and 3.5% from its one-year high; it is 9% ahead of the index over the past month. Apple stayed positive while the market fell for two days, because it sits outside the AI spending debate, and that gives it a defensive quality. Action: long, target 360. Invalidation: below 314.
• 18. Copper — long. At $6.527 after a 1.5% recovery yesterday; copper rising while precious metals fell shows it is decoupling, because its industrial demand depends more on AI infrastructure than on rates. The trend is up on every timeframe and price is only 4% below its one-year high. Action: long, target 6.80. Invalidation: below 6.28.
• 19. Wheat — long. At 731.75 cents and in an uptrend; it has gained 8.5% over the past month and price is above its one-month average. High energy costs are feeding through to agriculture as well. Action: long, target 805. Invalidation: below 683.
• 20. USDCHF — long. At 0.8255 after breaking its 60-day high; the weekly gain is 2% and the trend is up on every timeframe. The Swiss National Bank is holding its rate at zero while the Fed starts a hiking cycle, and the franc is seeing no safe-haven demand this month. Action: long, target 0.8398. Invalidation: below 0.8160.
• 21. EURAUD — short. At 1.6122 and in a downtrend; the euro is at a seven-week low after the Fed, while the Australian dollar is supported by the recovery in copper. Price is clearly below its one-month average. Action: short, target 1.5848. Invalidation: above 1.6305.
• 22. TSLA — short. At $358.08 and in a downtrend on every timeframe; price is 6% below its long-term average. The Fed has started a hiking cycle, and the stock valued on the longest-dated profit expectations comes under the most pressure. Action: short, target 313. Invalidation: above 388; the stock jumps quickly on headlines, so the size is small.
• 23. Palladium — short. At $1,302 and in a downtrend on every timeframe; the weekly loss is 4.8%, the weakest in the metals group. There is no industrial demand and pressure from the strong dollar continues. Action: short, target 1,179. Invalidation: above 1,384.
• 24. ASML — short. At $1,602 and 9.5% behind the index over the past month; chip equipment remains the weakest link in the group. But it rose 0.67% yesterday and the chip index recovered, so the selling momentum is slowing. Action: we are reducing the short idea, target 1,500. Invalidation: above 1,804.
• 25. CAC 40 — short. At 8,140 and Europe's weakest index: down 4.3% over the past month and close to its lowest zone of the past year. France's debt burden and two consecutive ECB rate hikes are stacking up. It recovered 0.62% yesterday, but that is a relief bounce. Action: short, target 7,900. Invalidation: above 8,225; the size is small, as the indicators are close to oversold.
• 26. Natural Gas — short. At $2.91, with price 63% below its one-year high; natural gas stayed flat while oil fell for two days, so the divergence continues. Action: short, target 2.76. Invalidation: above 3.03; the heating season is approaching, so the size is small.

No position today

Instruments from the list that carry no trade today, with the reason.

• USDJPY — No position. At 155.95, with the yen at its weakest in two weeks, having moved away from last week's peak at 152.89. Tomorrow the Bank of Japan raises its rate to a 31-year high, which is priced in; what matters is the signal Ueda gives on the pace after that. Today's pullback looks like positions being lightened ahead of the decision. Action: no position before the decision; a message of fast normalisation would mean a short, while a cautious tone brings 157–158.
• Gold — No position. At $4,325 and in its most fragile technical position of the year: price is only 0.2% above its long-term average and the weekly loss is 3%. The reason is clear: the Fed has started a hiking cycle, short-term rates are rising and the dollar is at a seven-week high. Action: we are closing the long idea; if it holds above 4,273, a small-size rebound long could be considered, otherwise no position.
• Silver — No position. At 63.99, just above the one-month low at 63.02; the weekly loss is 5.8%. The strong dollar and rising short-term rates are weighing on all precious metals. Action: we are closing the long idea; if 63.02 breaks, the direction turns down.

What happened yesterday

The Fed made its first rate hike in more than three years, and the decision was unanimous. Warsh said inflation is still too high and that this hike only removes one dose of accommodation; of the 18 members, 16 expect at least one more hike by the end of the year. Goldman went back to calling for an October hike.

The result: the dollar is at a seven-week high, short-term yields jumped and long-term yields fell — the market endorsed the hike as inflation control.

Today and tomorrow

The Bank of England decides today: rates are expected to be held, but the vote may be split. A hint of a November hike would lift sterling, while a fully dovish statement opens the way below 1.33; that is why there is no position in sterling before the decision.

Tomorrow the Bank of Japan raises its rate to a 31-year high, which is priced in; what decides it is Ueda's signal on the pace. The yen idea has also been left until after the decision.

What changed

• Anti-dollar ideas were dropped: the euro long was turned into a short, the sterling long was postponed until after the decision and the yen idea was suspended.
• Gold and silver ideas were closed: with the Fed starting a hiking cycle and the dollar at a seven-week high, assets that pay no return are hard to defend.
• New: two ideas in the dollar's favour take their place — a USDCHF long and a EURAUD short.
• XRP was turned from long to short in crypto.

Where the weight is

17 long, 8 short, 4 ideas closed. The centre of the long side is now equities: AMD, Chevron, Exxon, Apple, Nvidia. The reasoning runs two ways — the chip index recovered yesterday and the AI selling is stopping, while energy shares have pulled back to their averages with the two-day fall in oil, so the entry level has improved.

The crypto side has turned slightly negative, with two longs and three shorts.

Three levels

• Bitcoin 75,000: the zone that absorbed three shocks; if it holds, leveraged sellers get squeezed.
• Dollar index 100.33: the seven-week high; staying above it means constant pressure on gold and crypto.
• Brent 105: support reached with the Oman cargoes; until the pipeline repair becomes clear, the risk runs both ways, and this directly shapes the Exxon and Chevron ideas.

Balance

Eight short ideas balance the list: XRP and ADA in crypto, Tesla and ASML against the equity longs, palladium on the metals side, France against the European trigger longs, natural gas against the energy longs, and EURAUD on the dollar side. If the Fed keeps its hawkish stance, this group gains.

Considered, not taken

Every idea that reached the shortlist and was left out, with the reason.

This page is for general information only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, and it does not take account of any recipient's objectives, financial situation or needs. Levels and commentary reflect a view at a point in time and may change without notice. Past performance does not indicate future results. Trading in leveraged products including Forex, CFDs and cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors; you may lose more than your initial investment.