25 trade ideas for 18 September 2026: 20 long and 5 short. Entry, stop and two targets are given for each, with the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.
Today's framework
Oil has fallen for three days and that has changed the picture this week: as inflation pressure eased, bonds and equities rose together for the first time.
The AI sell-off is over, and the chip index gained 3% yesterday. The Bank of Japan governor speaks today at 09:30.
Core ideas
The core list is 13 positions: cryptocurrencies 3, indices 4, stocks 1, currencies 3, commodities 2. “Layer” is how firmly the idea is held — Core is a standing position, Tactical is held for the current setup only, and Trigger means nothing is done until the stated condition is met.
| No | Layer | Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Entry condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptocurrencies | ||||||||
| 1 | Tactical | BTCBTCUSDx | Long | 77,480 | 74,970 | 80,500 | 83,010 | Market |
| 2 | Tactical | ETHETHUSDx | Long | 2,480.41 | 2,356 | 2,667 | 2,791 | Market, small size |
| 3 | Tactical | SOLSOLx | Long | 105.49 | 95.82 | 119.99 | 129.66 | Market |
| Indices | ||||||||
| 4 | Core | S&P 500USSP_CFDx | Long | 7,638 | 7,508 | 7,833 | 7,963 | Market |
| 5 | Core | Nasdaq 100USTech_CFDx | Long | 29,447 | 28,753 | 30,488 | 31,182 | Market |
| 6 | Core | DAXEU_CFDx | Long | 25,717 | 25,173 | 26,533 | 27,077 | Market |
| 7 | Core | FTSE 100UK1x | Long | 10,816 | 10,586 | 11,161 | 11,391 | Market |
| Stocks | ||||||||
| 8 | Core | NVDANVDx | Long | 219.34 | 207.02 | 237.82 | 250.14 | Market |
| Currencies | ||||||||
| 9 | Tactical | EURUSDEURUSDx | Short | 1.1484 | 1.162 | 1.128 | 1.1144 | Market, small size |
| 10 | Trigger | USDJPYUSDJPYx | Long | 157.5 | 155 | 161.25 | 163.75 | If Ueda is not hawkish, above 157.50 |
| 11 | Tactical | AUDUSDAUDUSDx | Long | 0.7126 | 0.7087 | 0.7185 | 0.7224 | Market, small size |
| Commodities | ||||||||
| 12 | Tactical | GoldXAUUSDx | Long | 4,414.8 | 4,273 | 4,627 | 4,769 | Market, small size |
| 13 | Tactical | SilverXAGUSDx | Long | 67.1 | 63.02 | 73.22 | 77.3 | Market |
- 1. BTC — long. At 77,500 after recovering from the overnight low of 76,200, and up 1.2% on the week. Crypto moved together with equities this week, so oil and rates set the direction; both turned favourable yesterday. Funds took in $159m. Overhead, 80,500 matters: it is the average purchase cost of the corporate buyers, the group is currently at a loss, and there is selling pressure up to that level. Action: long, target 80,500. Invalidation: below 74,970.
- 2. ETH — long. At 2,480 and up 1.6% yesterday, but money left its funds for a third day running ($39m yesterday, $224m on Wednesday). Money is leaving while the price rises: that divergence makes ether the most fragile name among the majors. Action: long with small size, target 2,600. Invalidation: below 2,356.
- 3. SOL — long. Up to 105.49; it was the strongest of the majors yesterday at 5.9%, and the weekly gain is 6.9%. The $100 level has been reclaimed, and it has outperformed Bitcoin by 16% over the past month. Resistance is 107.48. Action: long, target 110.60. Invalidation: below 95.82.
- 4. S&P 500 — long. Up to 7,638; yesterday's 1.14% gain was the strongest day in six weeks and the index is back in an uptrend. The volatility index fell 12.8% to 15.44. The reason is oil: cheaper oil takes the edge off the inflation problem, which is why bonds and equities rose together for the first time. Action: long, target 7,771. Invalidation: below 7,508.
- 5. Nasdaq 100 — long. Up to 29,447; yesterday's 1.73% gain was the strongest among the indices, and the chip index gained 3%. The AI sell-off is fully over: AMD rose 6.4%, TSMC 3% and Nvidia 2.5%. Action: long, target 29,753. Invalidation: below 28,753.
- 6. DAX — long. Up to 25,717, closing just above yesterday's trigger at 25,700, so the idea worked; the index has turned to an uptrend. But European futures are down 0.35% today. Action: long, target 26,490. Invalidation: below 25,173.
- 7. FTSE 100 — long. Up to 10,816 after a 1.19% gain yesterday, clearing our trigger at 10,750; the weekly gain of 1.95% is the strongest in Europe. The Bank of England held rates and paused its bond sales for six months, a surprise step that supported bonds. Action: long, target 10,920. Invalidation: below 10,586.
- 8. NVDA — long. Recovered to $219.34 after a 2.54% gain yesterday and is back in an uptrend; price is 10% above its long-term average. The 3% jump in the chip index shows that the AI debate has closed. Action: long, target 234.50. Invalidation: below 207.
- 9. EURUSD — short. At 1.1484 and heading for a 1% weekly loss, its sharpest weekly fall since June; the downtrend continues but indicators are nearing oversold. Yesterday's short idea is working. Action: short maintained, target 1.1355. Invalidation: above 1.1680; size has been reduced because of the oversold reading.
- 10. USDJPY — long. Up to 157.18; the yen weakened 0.8% and is at its weakest since 3 September. The Bank of Japan raised rates to a 31-year high, but the decision came on a 7–2 vote and the statement was measured; the market was disappointed. Ueda speaks today at 09:30. Action: long if he is not hawkish enough, target 160. Invalidation: a return below 155 if the door is left open to a December hike.
- 11. AUDUSD — long. At 0.7126 and up 0.53% yesterday; Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock said the upside risks to inflation have materialised, and the market is pricing two more hikes. Copper is also in an uptrend. But indicators are weak and price is close to the one-month low. Action: long with small size, target 0.7239. Invalidation: below 0.7087.
- 12. Gold — long. Recovered to $4,415 and heading for a flat week; easing oil and the end of an eight-day rising streak in bond yields have given gold room to breathe. We are reopening the idea we closed yesterday because the condition has changed: rate pressure is easing. Action: long with small size, target 4,550. Invalidation: below 4,273.
- 13. Silver — long. Jumped to $67.10 after a 2.49% rise yesterday, with a weekly gain of 4.4%; it has recovered more strongly than gold because both the precious-metal and the industrial legs worked, and copper is rising too. Action: long, target 71.16. Invalidation: below 63.02.
Additional ideas
12 ideas outside the core list, taken on their own setups. They carry no layer marking.
| No | Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Entry condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | TSMTSMx | Long | 430.26 | 402.15 | 472.43 | 500.55 | Market |
| 15 | AMDAMDx | Long | 545.09 | 484 | 636.73 | 697.82 | Market, on a pullback |
| 16 | AAPLAPLx | Long | 337 | 314 | 371.5 | 394.5 | Market |
| 17 | CVXCHVx | Long | 211.57 | 200.34 | 228.42 | 239.65 | Market |
| 18 | XOMXOMx | Long | 163.27 | 154.18 | 176.91 | 186 | Market |
| 19 | CopperCOPPERx | Long | 6.6435 | 6.3493 | 7.0849 | 7.3791 | Market |
| 20 | WheatWHTx | Long | 722.5 | 673.53 | 795.95 | 844.92 | Market |
| 21 | IBEX 35SA_CFDx | Long | 19,832 | 19,326 | 20,591 | 21,097 | Market |
| 22 | EURAUDEURAUDx | Short | 1.6115 | 1.6305 | 1.583 | 1.564 | Market |
| 23 | PalladiumXPDx | Short | 1,325 | 1,402.62 | 1,208.57 | 1,130.96 | Market, small size |
| 24 | Natural GasNGASx | Short | 2.864 | 3.03 | 2.615 | 2.449 | Market, small size |
| 25 | CAC 40FR_CFDx | Short | 8,187 | 8,300 | 8,018 | 7,905 | Market, small size |
- 14. TSM — long. Up to $430.26 after a 3% gain yesterday, and today's strongest setup: two signals are positive at the same time, the stock has outperformed the index by 14% over the past month and it has turned to an uptrend. The Taiwan stock market is 2% from its high. Action: long, target 472. Invalidation: below 402.
- 15. AMD — long. Surged to $545.09; at 6.36% it was the market's strongest stock yesterday, and the weekly gain is 8.2%. It has outperformed the index by 42% over the past month and is 6% from its one-year high. Yesterday's long idea worked. Action: long maintained, target 584. Invalidation: below 484; the stock has risen 8% in two days, so a new entry can wait for a pullback.
- 16. AAPL — long. At $337 and 2% below its one-year high; it has outperformed the index by 16% over the past month and rose 1.38% yesterday. It remains the most resilient large technology name, whether the market is recovering or falling. Action: long, target 360. Invalidation: below 314.
- 17. CVX — long. At $211.57 and flat despite the fall in oil; the stock has outperformed the index by 16% over the past month and price has settled on its one-month average. As long as oil stays above $100, earnings expectations stay strong. Action: long, target 228. Invalidation: below 200.
- 18. XOM — long. At $163.27 and down 1.2% on the week; oil has fallen for three days and energy shares have erased their weekly gains. Even so, the trend is up on every timeframe and price is at its one-month average. Action: long, target 177. Invalidation: below 154; the thesis weakens if oil drops below 100.
- 19. Copper — long. Up to $6.6435, with a weekly gain of 2.7% and the trend up on every timeframe; price is only 2.4% below its one-year high. Precious metals and copper recovered together this week, and industrial demand is being fed by AI infrastructure. Action: long, target 7.08. Invalidation: below 6.35.
- 20. Wheat — long. At 722.50 cents and flat on the week, but a monthly gain of 8.7% keeps the uptrend intact; price is just above its one-month average. Action: long, target 796. Invalidation: below 674.
- 21. IBEX 35 — long. At 19,832, with price settled on its one-month average; the trend is up and the Spanish index continues to hold firm in Europe, unlike France. Action: long, target 20,591. Invalidation: below 19,326.
- 22. EURAUD — short. At 1.6115 after a 0.41% fall yesterday; the trend is down on every timeframe, the euro is weak and the Australian dollar is supported by Bullock's hawkish warning. Yesterday's short idea is working. Action: short maintained, target 1.5848. Invalidation: above 1.6305.
- 23. Palladium — short. At $1,325 after a 2.7% rise yesterday, but the trend is still down on every timeframe; price is 4% below its long-term average and it is the only name in the metals group in a downtrend. It is the counterweight to our gold and silver longs. Action: short, target 1,209. Invalidation: above 1,403; size is small because of yesterday's rebound.
- 24. Natural Gas — short. At $2.864 and moved into a downtrend with a 1.28% fall yesterday; price is 63% below its one-year high. Natural gas is falling as oil drops for a third day, but it is structurally separate: US gas depends on domestic production. Action: short, target 2.73. Invalidation: above 3.03; the heating season is approaching, so size is small.
- 25. CAC 40 — short. At 8,187 and still Europe's weakest index: down 3.7% over the past month and the trend is still mixed, while other European indices turn to uptrends. Action: short, target 8,000. Invalidation: above 8,300; if the broad recovery continues this idea closes too, so size is small.
The real story of the week
Oil. It has fallen for three days, and Brent is heading for its first weekly loss in three weeks. Two concrete steps are behind it: Saudi Arabia is working to restore half of the attacked pipeline's capacity within days, and China, at the Saudis' request, asked Iran to rein in the Houthis.
Cheaper oil takes the edge off the inflation problem the Fed is trying to solve by raising rates; that is why bonds and equities rose together for the first time yesterday. This week the direction of oil mattered more than the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan decisions.
What is on today
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda speaks at 09:30. The bank raised rates to a 31-year high, but the decision came on a 7–2 vote and the statement was measured; the yen weakened 0.8%. If Ueda is not hawkish enough, the yen heads toward 160; if he leaves the door open to a December hike, it returns below 155. That is why the yen idea is a trigger idea.
What we closed
Five ideas were closed. The ASML and Tesla shorts went against us and the thesis no longer holds: the chip index jumped 3% and the AI slowdown debate has closed.
The ADA short was broken by yesterday's 8.15% rise. On XRP we gave a short yesterday and the price rose; the trend is mixed and we are not taking a position. The sterling trigger did not come. The USDCHF long was closed in profit territory as indicators moved into overbought.
What we brought back
Gold. Yesterday we closed it on the grounds that 'a non-yielding asset is hard to defend as the Fed starts a hiking cycle'. Today the condition has changed: oil has eased, bond yields have broken an eight-day rising streak and gold has recovered to 4,415. We are reopening it with small size. This is a change in the condition, not in the thesis.
Where the weight is
20 long, 4 short, 5 ideas closed. For the first time this week the list is clearly weighted to the long side, and its centre is in equities: TSM is today's strongest setup, AMD led the market yesterday with 6.4%, and Apple is 2% from its high. All four indices are on the long side and three have turned to uptrends. The short side is down to four because the theses of the others broke.
Three levels
- Brent $100: the psychological threshold of the week; a move below it would change the inflation narrative completely and accelerate the equity rally.
- Bitcoin 80,500: the average purchase cost of the corporate buyers; reclaiming it would remove a ceiling on supply.
- S&P 500 7,817: the one-month high, which could be tested this week if oil keeps easing.
Considered, not taken
Every idea that reached the shortlist and was left out, with the reason.
| Instrument | Side | Why it was not taken |
|---|---|---|
| AAVE | Long | Has outperformed Bitcoin by 7% over the past month, but the crypto side is already three positions; a fourth coin would enlarge the cluster. |
| DASH | Long | Outperformed Bitcoin by 62% over the past month, but price is 45% below its high and it was our short idea for two weeks; for consistency we did not turn long. |
| XMR | Long | Two signals are positive at once, but it is an open idea from last week; it was not renewed. |
| TRX | Long | The crypto side was kept to three positions. |
| USDNOK | Short | With oil falling, a short on the Norwegian krone pair would run the wrong way; the energy thesis is carried through Exxon and Chevron. |
| META | Long | Has outperformed the index by 26% over the past month and momentum is overbought; entering now would be chasing. |
| GOOGL | Long | Rose 1.3% yesterday, but the equity side is already five positions. |
| Brent, WTI | Long | Oil has fallen for three days and the $100 threshold is being tested; no direct position until the direction is clear. |
| Cocoa | Long | Down 5.7% on the week and close to giving back all of the August rally; wheat represents the agricultural side. |
| USDTRY | Long | The rate is at a new high at 48.76 and indicators are at extremes; technical breakouts do not work in a managed currency. |
This page is for general information only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, and it does not take account of any recipient's objectives, financial situation or needs. Levels and commentary reflect a view at a point in time and may change without notice. Past performance does not indicate future results. Trading in leveraged products including Forex, CFDs and cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors; you may lose more than your initial investment.