Trading Signals - 6 October 2026

24 trade ideas for 6 October 2026: 21 long and 3 short. Entry, stop and two targets are given for each, with the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.

Today's framework

Tuesday 6 October 2026. The week's contradiction: the 10-year yield rose to a 24-year high while the Nasdaq made a record close. That divergence lasts as long as the artificial intelligence earnings expectation holds, but it raises the fragility. The real test is tomorrow's 10-year bond auction: absorbing this week's 119 billion dollars of supply would slow the yields and remove the macro obstacle in front of bitcoin's 87,000 resistance. In Europe, Spain has joined France.

Eight of the ideas are conditional: four wait for a pullback into the band, three for a daily close above a stated level and one for the open. Nvidia is the only intraday idea on the list, and the only one the workbook gives a single target for.

Trade ideas

The line under each name is the instrument symbol. Entry is given as a band, or as the single level a conditional idea needs; the note under the table opens with the kind of setup the idea is, and says when it is an intraday idea rather than a medium-term one.

• 1. ASML — long. Relative strength. At 1,859.86 dollars and the cleanest entry on the chip side: a 5% gain on the week, 7.7% ahead of the index over the past month, and momentum at 64 is not yet overbought. It carries the same theme as TSM but the price is just below the past month's high, so the entry point is much better. It pulled back slightly yesterday. Action: buy in the 1,845-1,865 band, target 2,045. Invalidated if: A close below 1,736.
• 2. Brent Crude — long. Pullback within trend. At 100.70 dollars and it has pulled back to the psychological threshold of 100; the price is just below the past month's average, a clean pullback within the trend. The fall came from two pieces of news: Middle East exports exceeded the pre-war level on four days in the last week of September, and the G7 decided on a release of 100 million barrels. On the other side an Aramco executive says refilling stocks can take two years, the US strategic reserve is at its lowest since 1982 and the Houthi conflict continues. Action: buy in the 99.80-101.20 band, target 109.86. Invalidated if: A close below 94.60.
• 3. TSM — long. Relative strength. At 485.80 dollars and it rose 2.75% yesterday to a one-year high; it is 14.5% ahead of the index over the past month and the weekly gain is 7.3%. Foxconn reporting revenue of 1 trillion New Taiwan dollars for the first time in September confirmed the demand in the chip supply chain, and the Taiwanese market is close to a record too. But momentum is overbought at 76 and chasing it from this level is expensive. Action: buy on a pullback into the 476-481 band, target 521. Invalidated if: A close below 452.
• 4. CAC 40 — short. Relative strength. At 7,834 and it remains Europe's weak link; it is 6% behind the S&P over the past month and the price sits below the 200-day average by 4.6%. Political risk doubled today: Spain's early election in November has been added to the budget deadlock in France, so two of the euro area's four largest economies face uncertainty at the same time. Momentum is oversold at 29, so the entry should be kept small and there is a risk of a bounce. Action: sell in the 7,830-7,880 band, target 7,496. Invalidated if: A close above 8,060.
• 5. NVDA — long. Breakout · intraday. It made a record close at 238.90, rose 2.12% yesterday and its market value reached 5.76 trillion dollars; the intraday range was 235.15-240.10. Because this is an intraday idea the level is not fixed in the morning: holding above yesterday's high at the open would carry the record breakout further. If it does not hold, the same level turns into a selling area. Action: buy if it holds above 240.10 at the open, target 246. Invalidated if: Below 234.
• 6. XLM — long. Pullback within trend and relative strength. At 0.2141 and it pulled back with a 4.4% fall yesterday, but it is still 7.9% ahead of bitcoin over the past month and the trend is up in every time frame. It is the only crypto on the candidate list with two positive signals at once: a pullback within the trend and relative strength. The price has settled on the past month's average. If a correction comes across crypto this name falls too, so the entry should be kept small. Action: buy in the 0.2120-0.2180 band, target 0.2640. Invalidated if: A close below 0.1810.
• 7. BTC — long. Breakout. At 85,314 and it has turned back from the 87,000 resistance for the third time since 23 September; that level caps every rally. The technical picture shows rising lows but buyers cannot gain momentum, and the price has come close to the top of the triangle. The decisive factor is macro: tomorrow's 10-year bond auction and whether this week's 119 billion dollars of supply is absorbed. Action: the direction is up while it stays above 84,000, and buy if a close above 87,200 arrives. Invalidated if: A daily close below 84,000, with 79,700 after that.
• 8. SOL — long. Relative strength. At 119.37 and 10% ahead of bitcoin over the past month; it remains the relative strength leader in crypto and the trend is up in every time frame. The institutional settlement programme the foundation presented yesterday was developed with JPMorgan's contribution and cuts settlement time from days to seconds; it is the most concrete development on the network's institutional side. Action: buy in the 118-120 band, target 137. Invalidated if: A close below 107.60.
• 9. AVAX — long. Relative strength. At 11.20 and the strongest in crypto with 47.6% on the month; it rose 2.12% yesterday and is 35% ahead of bitcoin over the past month. But the trend is mixed, momentum at 65 is approaching overbought, and the price has been in a narrow band for three days. Action: buy on a pullback into the 10.80-11.00 band, target 13.70. Invalidated if: A close below 9.54.
• 10. ADA — long. Relative strength. At 0.2670 and after an 11% jump the day before it gave back 1.5% yesterday; futures open interest, at 2.46 billion tokens, is at its highest since 22 August. Open interest rising together with the price is a signal that confirms the uptrend, but momentum at 69 is approaching overbought. Action: buy on a pullback into the 0.2570-0.2620 band, target 0.3274. Invalidated if: A close below 0.2268.
• 11. S&P 500 — long. Pullback within trend. At 7,774 and 0.5% below its record; it rose 0.66% yesterday and the information technology sector made a record close. But a few large names are carrying the rise: the equal-weighted index fell 3.6% over the past month while the index itself gained 0.7%. Third-quarter earnings growth is expected at 27% and more than half of that comes from artificial intelligence infrastructure; the results season starts on 13 October. Action: buy in the 7,730-7,775 band, target 8,029. Invalidated if: A close below 7,604.
• 12. Nasdaq 100 — long. Pullback within trend. At a record 31,076 and up 0.87% yesterday; rising despite the selling in bonds is the week's most striking fact. The logic is this: a measured reduction in rate uncertainty and a slight easing in geopolitical risk let investors focus on the earnings growth of the artificial intelligence names. That divergence lasts as long as the expectation holds, but it raises the fragility. Action: buy in the 30,800-31,100 band, target 31,970. Invalidated if: A close below 30,737.
• 13. DAX — long. Breakout. At 25,254 and it closed flat yesterday; the trend is mixed and the price is 3% lower over the past month. What weighs on Europe is the bond side, not the equity side: the French-German spread is at 137 basis points against 85 a month ago, and the Italian spread made its largest weekly increase since Covid. European futures are 0.4-0.5% higher this morning. Action: buy if a daily close above 25,400 arrives. Invalidated if: A close below 24,970.
• 14. AMD — long. Breakout. At 631.75 dollars and the strongest relative performance in the market with 38.5% on the month; it is 31% ahead of the index over the past month. It eased slightly yesterday and the price stayed below the past month's high of 645.46. Momentum at 69 is at the edge of overbought, so waiting for a breakout is the better course. Action: buy if a close above 645.46 arrives, target 711. Invalidated if: A close below 605.
• 15. META — long. Relative strength. At 741.90 dollars and up 1.9% yesterday; it is 19.5% ahead of the index over the past month and the monthly gain is 21.6%. The trend is up in every time frame and momentum is 64. The setup is clean but it does not stand out enough to take first place today; the chip side is stronger. Action: buy in the 727-742 band, target 835. Invalidated if: A close below 679.
• 16. AAPL — long. Pullback within trend. At 332.89 dollars and it eased slightly yesterday; the price is just above the past month's average and the trend is up. As a cash-generating company in a high-rate environment it carries a defensive quality, but it has lagged the index over the past month. Action: buy in the 331-334 band, target 358.60. Invalidated if: A close below 315.75.
• 17. GOOGL — long. Pullback within trend. At 346.47 dollars and up 0.86% yesterday; the trend is up and the price is above the past month's average. It is level with the index over the past month, so neither leading nor lagging. Action: buy in the 342-347 band, target 378.50. Invalidated if: A close below 325.
• 18. XOM — long. Pullback within trend. At 164.00 dollars and flat; the trend is up and the price is above the past month's average. Energy stocks stayed flat yesterday because oil eased to 100 dollars; this stock stays supported as long as Brent holds 100. Action: buy in the 161.50-164.50 band, target 177. Invalidated if: A close below 155.
• 19. CVX — long. Pullback within trend. At 206.47 dollars and the risk is small because the stop is very close; the trend is up and the price is on the past month's average. The same thesis as Exxon and tied to the same oil risk. Action: buy in the 202-207 band, target 216.88. Invalidated if: A close below 199.50.
• 20. USDCHF — long. Pullback within trend. At 0.8317 and the trend is up in every time frame; the Fed is tightening while the Swiss rate is at zero, and the rate gap is widening in one direction only. Momentum is healthy at 60. The franc saw safe-haven demand last week and that pressure has eased. Action: buy in the 0.8280-0.8320 band, target 0.8420. Invalidated if: A close below 0.8232.
• 21. USDCAD — long. Pullback within trend. At 1.4274 and momentum at 77 is deep in overbought; the trend is up and the price is at a 60-day high. Dollar strength and the easing in oil both work against the Canadian dollar, but an entry from this level is expensive. Action: buy on a pullback into the 1.4210-1.4250 band, target 1.4390. Invalidated if: A close below 1.4150.
• 22. Copper — long. Pullback within trend. At 6.6445 dollars and up 0.9% yesterday; the trend is up in every time frame and the price is 2.7% below its one-year high. Copper rising while precious metals fall shows that industrial demand works independently of rates. China is still on holiday today and opens tomorrow, when the demand side becomes clearer. Action: buy in the 6.54-6.65 band, target 7.01. Invalidated if: A close below 6.40.
• 23. Palladium — short. Relative strength. At 1,165.50 dollars and the weakest of the metals group with an 18.3% loss on the month; the trend is down in every time frame and the price sits below the 200-day average by 14.6%. There is no industrial demand, and the rate pressure on the precious metals side sits on top of that. Action: sell in the 1,165-1,180 band, target 1,100. Invalidated if: A close above 1,240.
• 24. Coffee — short. Pullback within trend. At 293.35 cents and the trend is down in every time frame; the price sits below the 200-day average by 7.6% and momentum is 43. There is a 1.6% recovery on the week but the structure has not changed. Action: sell in the 291-296 band, target 257. Invalidated if: A close above 317.40.

Clustering and balance

Clustering. The centre of the buy side is the chip supply chain — ASML, TSM, AMD and NVDA are four legs of the same bet. If the artificial intelligence earnings expectation breaks down, or the 10-year yield settles above 5.35%, all four lose together.

The balancing side. The CAC 40, palladium and coffee shorts. If European political risk grows or a general reduction in risk arrives, these three gain; but they do not offset the whole chip cluster.

Energy. Brent, Exxon and Chevron are tied to the same oil risk; if Brent loses 100 dollars, all three break down together.

This page is for general information only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, and it does not take account of any recipient's objectives, financial situation or needs. Levels and commentary reflect a view at a point in time and may change without notice. Past performance does not indicate future results. Trading in leveraged products including Forex, CFDs and cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors; you may lose more than your initial investment.