Trading Signals - 7 October 2026

31 trade ideas for 7 October 2026: 27 long and 4 short. Entry, stop and two targets are given for each, with the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.

Today's framework

Wednesday 7 October 2026. Two events will set the direction today: the Fed minutes at 21:00 and the 39 billion dollar 10-year bond auction. If the minutes frame September's rise as the start of a multi-step adjustment, yields turn back up. In oil, the storm approaching the Gulf of Mexico and the Houthi attacks threaten supply from two directions. Bitcoin has tested below the 84,000 support, and the crypto side is held defensively.

Thirteen of the ideas are positions already open and carried over from the previous list; the entry condition says which of those are no longer taken as new entries. Two more are conditional: bitcoin on a confirmed close and Avalanche on a pullback into the band.

Trade ideas

The line under each name is the instrument symbol. Entry is given as a band, or as the single level a conditional idea needs; the note under the table opens with the kind of setup the idea is, and says when it is an intraday idea rather than a medium-term one.

• 1. BTC — long. Breakout. At 84,294 dollars and it fell to 83,840 overnight, seeing below the 84,000 support for the first time; the next threshold is 83,000 and if that breaks there is no serious support until 80,000. The cause of the fall is not on the crypto side but in macro: Iran accelerating its tanker attacks pushed oil, bond yields and the dollar up together. Against that the price sits above the 200-day average by 13.6% and the monthly gain is 4.9%, so the long-term structure is intact. The Fed minutes at 21:00 today will set the direction. Action: the direction is up but the entry depends on confirmation, so buy if a close above 84,600 arrives; target 88,500. Invalidated if: A close below 83,000.
• 2. ETH — long. Pullback within trend. At 2,619 dollars and with a 2.68% fall yesterday it was among the worst of the majors; the weekly loss is 2.19%. Against that the trend is up in every time frame, and the price slipping a little below the past month's average has formed a pullback-within-trend setup. Two negative pieces of news came from the ecosystem: two Ethereum second-layer networks shut down within a week, both saying operating cost had exceeded revenue. That shows the economics of these networks are not sustainable. Action: small buy in the 2,600-2,640 band, target 2,922. Invalidated if: A close below 2,417.
• 3. Brent Crude — long. Pullback within trend. At 101.53 dollars and up 0.94% yesterday; two new threats appeared at the same time. The first is the storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico: within two days it will become the year's first Atlantic hurricane and it is heading for the region that holds 15% of US crude production, and it can affect six refineries. The second is the Houthi attacks on the Jizan and Najran airports. On the other side the Saudi pipeline has reached 5.8 million barrels a day and 12 million barrels a day are leaving the Middle East. Action: the buy continues, target 111. Invalidated if: A close below 95.19.
• 4. CHFJPY — short. Pullback within trend. At 190.03 and the cleanest currency setup on today's candidate list: the price is a little below the past month's average, the trend is down and momentum is mid-range at 42. The Bank of Japan may signal this month that the inflation target has been reached while the Swiss rate is at zero; the rate gap is closing in the yen's favour. Action: sell in the 189.80-190.30 band, target 185.64. Invalidated if: A close above 192.96.
• 5. META — long. Relative strength. At 738.88 dollars and down 0.41% yesterday; the monthly gain is 19.9% and it is 18% ahead of the index over the past month. The recovery on the software and services side supports this stock directly: the sector's 2026 earnings growth expectation has risen from 13.8% at the end of March to 20.6%. Yesterday's band filled. Action: the buy continues, target 828.89. Invalidated if: A close below 678.88.
• 6. AAPL — long. Pullback within trend. At 333.63 dollars and up 0.22% yesterday; the price is just above the past month's average and the trend is up in every time frame. Momentum is mid-range at 55, so there is neither overbought nor oversold; that means a clean entry within the trend. Yesterday's band filled. Action: the buy continues, target 358.51. Invalidated if: A close below 317.04.
• 7. MSFT — long. Relative strength. At 529.30 dollars and up 0.78% yesterday; the weekly gain is 4% and the price is at the past month's high. It is the largest beneficiary of the software leadership and momentum at 68 is not yet overbought. Action: buy in the 525-531 band, target 567. Invalidated if: A close below 498.
• 8. SOL — long. Relative strength. At 118.66 dollars and down only 0.58% yesterday; it was the most resilient major in the selling across crypto and it is 9% ahead of bitcoin over the past month. The monthly gain is 11.4% and the trend is up in every time frame. The 118-120 band given yesterday filled. Action: the buy continues, target 135.88. Invalidated if: A close below 107.18.
• 9. ADA — long. Relative strength. At 0.2572 dollars and with a 3.81% fall yesterday it was the worst of the majors; it was sold despite the news of the Cardano Foundation's new token standard, so the news found no buyers. The price has come down to yesterday's entry band and the weekly gain is still 5.19%. Momentum is high at 67 but has eased back from overbought. Action: small buy in the 0.2550-0.2600 band, target 0.2950. Invalidated if: A close below 0.2420.
• 10. AVAX — long. Relative strength. At 11.26 dollars and up 0.36% yesterday, the only major to stay higher in a falling crypto market; the monthly gain is 42.4% and it is 38% ahead of bitcoin over the past month. But momentum at 69 has approached overbought and the trend is mixed. Yesterday's 10.80-11.00 band did not come; the price turned up before reaching it. Action: buy on a pullback into the 10.80-11.00 band, target 13.75. Invalidated if: A close below 9.60.
• 11. XLM — long. Pullback within trend. At 0.2066 dollars and down 3.55% yesterday; with a 7.06% weekly loss it was the weakest on the crypto side and it has fallen below yesterday's entry band. Even so the trend is up in every time frame and the price sits above the 200-day average by 9.5%. It still gives a pullback-within-trend setup on the candidate list, but two consecutive days of selling weaken the thesis. Action: it is held in small size, no new buy. Invalidated if: A close below 0.1771.
• 12. S&P 500 — long. Pullback within trend. At 7,819 and it closed above 7,800 for the first time; it has risen for four sessions and gained 0.58% yesterday. The fear index has come down to 15.01. The source of the rise has changed: chip stocks are still leading, but the software index rose 1.3% yesterday to its highest level since November 2025. The 7,730-7,775 band given yesterday did not come; the price ran away upward. Action: buy in the 7,780-7,820 band, target 8,030. Invalidated if: A close below 7,728.
• 13. Nasdaq 100 — long. Pullback within trend. It set a fresh record at 31,224 and rose 0.48% yesterday; the weekly gain is 2.92%. But momentum has reached the edge of overbought at 70 and Asia decoupled this morning: Korea fell 1.6% and Japan 0.59%. The Fed minutes and the 39 billion dollar bond auction come today; both will test the record run. Action: small buy in the 31,100-31,250 band, target 32,050. Invalidated if: A close below 30,798.
• 14. DAX — long. Breakout. At 25,449 and up 0.77% yesterday, which triggered yesterday's level; Le Pen's pledge of spending cuts eased French bonds and that spread across Europe. The France-Germany spread came down from 160 basis points to 132. But European futures are 0.55% lower this morning and the trend is still mixed. Action: the buy continues, target 26,255. Invalidated if: A close below 25,143.
• 15. FTSE 100 — long. Pullback within trend. At 10,542 and up 0.42% yesterday; momentum has recovered to 41 but the trend is still mixed and the price is 2.59% lower over the past month. The index's weighting in energy and mining supports it while oil is at 101 dollars. Action: small buy in the 10,500-10,560 band, target 10,780. Invalidated if: A close below 10,452.
• 16. CAC 40 — short. Relative strength. At 7,865 and up 0.4% yesterday; Le Pen's pledge of spending cuts eased French bonds and the index took a share of that. But it is still Europe's weakest large index: momentum 32, a 5.31% loss over the past month and the price sitting below the 200-day average by 4.2%. Yesterday's band filled. Action: the sell continues, target 7,496. Invalidated if: A close above 7,917.
• 17. NVDA — long. Pullback within trend. At 239.24 dollars and flat yesterday, but the weekly gain is 5.29%; the price is only 1.7% below its one-year high. Yesterday's intraday idea saw the 240.10 trigger and ran to 243.37, but it came back to 239.24 without reaching the target. A divergence has started on the chip side: Marvell rose 5.8% and AMD 2.8% while ASML and TSM fell. Action: buy in the 237-240 band, target 258. Invalidated if: A close below 228.
• 18. AMD — long. Breakout. At 649.42 dollars and up 2.8% yesterday, which triggered yesterday's level; Citi raised its price target, citing the increase in central processing unit demand. The monthly gain is 36% and it is 34% ahead of the index over the past month. But momentum is overbought at 72 and the price is 1.4% below its one-year high. Action: the buy continues; wait for a pullback for a new entry; target 711. Invalidated if: A close below 606.
• 19. TSM — long. Relative strength. At 482.30 dollars and down 0.72% yesterday; the weekly gain is still 5.55% and it is 12.8% ahead of the index over the past month. Yesterday's 476-481 band was touched intraday at 481.48, so the entry was filled. But momentum is overbought at 73 and the price is 1% below its one-year high. Action: the buy continues, no new entry; target 521. Invalidated if: A close below 452.
• 20. ASML — long. Relative strength. At 1,834.10 dollars and with a 1.39% fall yesterday it was the weak leg of the chip side; it fell alongside TSM while Marvell and AMD rose. This divergence calls for attention: equipment makers depend on the longest-dated investment decisions, and with yields staying high the question marks on this side are growing. The price stayed inside yesterday's entry band. Action: it is held in small size, no new buy. Invalidated if: A close below 1,736.
• 21. GOOGL — long. Pullback within trend. At 347.68 dollars and up 0.35% yesterday; the trend is up and the price is above the past month's average. It is one of the names benefiting from the leadership change on the software side, but it is level with the index over the past month. Action: the buy continues, target 378.50. Invalidated if: A close below 325.
• 22. AMZN — long. Pullback within trend. At 256.29 dollars and up 1.95% yesterday; the weekly gain is 3.9% and the trend is up in every time frame. It is the laggard of the recovery on the software and cloud side, with the price 10.8% below its one-year high. Momentum is mid-range at 55. Action: buy in the 253-257 band, target 278. Invalidated if: A close below 240.
• 23. XOM — long. Pullback within trend. At 164.48 dollars and up 0.29% yesterday; the trend is up and energy stocks are supported while oil is at 101 dollars. Yesterday's band filled. Action: the buy continues, target 177. Invalidated if: A close below 155.
• 24. CVX — long. Pullback within trend. At 207.58 dollars and up 0.54% yesterday; the same thesis as Exxon and tied to the same oil risk. The price has moved above the past month's average. Action: the buy continues, target 217. Invalidated if: A close below 200.
• 25. USDCHF — long. Pullback within trend. At 0.8334 and up 0.27% yesterday; the trend is up in every time frame and the price is 0.6% below its one-year high. The Fed is tightening while the Swiss rate is at zero, and the rate gap is widening in one direction only. Yesterday's band filled. Action: the buy continues, target 0.8420. Invalidated if: A close below 0.8278.
• 26. USDCAD — long. Pullback within trend. At 1.4223 and down 0.28% yesterday; the trend is up but momentum at 78 is deep in overbought. The rise in oil works in the Canadian dollar's favour and that weakens the idea. Yesterday's band filled. Action: it is held in small size, no new buy. Invalidated if: A close below 1.4213.
• 27. WTI — long. Pullback within trend. At 90.25 dollars and up 0.91% yesterday; the same thesis as Brent but the storm risk is more direct here, because the production that would be affected is in the United States. The spread to Brent is 11.28 dollars. Action: buy in the 89-91 band, target 98. Invalidated if: A close below 84.50.
• 28. Copper — long. Pullback within trend. At 6.6295 dollars and up 0.53% yesterday; the trend is up in every time frame and the price is only 2.9% below its one-year high. Copper rising while precious metals fall shows that industrial demand works independently of rates. China is on its Golden Week holiday and the demand side becomes clearer next week. Yesterday's band filled. Action: the buy continues, target 7.01. Invalidated if: A close below 6.40.
• 29. Natural Gas — long. Breakout. At 3.143 dollars and up 0.93% yesterday; the weekly gain is 4.38%. The storm is heading for the region that holds 5% of natural gas production, which means short-term upside risk. But the trend is still mixed and momentum is neutral at 58. Action: small buy in the 3.10-3.16 band, target 3.40. Invalidated if: A close below 2.99.
• 30. Palladium — short. Relative strength. At 1,158.50 dollars and the weakest of the metals group with a 16.66% loss on the month; the trend is down in every time frame and the price sits below the 200-day average by 15%. There is no industrial demand, and the rate pressure on the precious metals side sits on top of that. Yesterday's band filled and the idea is in profit. Action: the sell continues, target 1,100. Invalidated if: A close above 1,240.
• 31. Coffee — short. Pullback within trend. At 303.20 cents and down 0.41% yesterday but 4.75% higher on the week; yesterday's sell idea is in loss. The trend is still down and the price sits below the 200-day average by 4.5%, with momentum mid-range at 52. The structure is intact but the recovery is stronger than expected. Action: it is held in small size, no new sell. Invalidated if: A close above 322.20.

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