Brent closed above $100 for the first time since July, the front end of the curve led for a third week, and the FOMC meets on Wednesday with a 25bp hike roughly 60% priced. This is the week's read on rates, currencies, equities, commodities and crypto, with the levels we are watching into it.
1. Oil Through $100, Yields Toward 5%
Brent closed above $100 for the first time since July, ending the week at 104.61 after an 8.65% gain. WTI added 9.37% to 100.05. The driver was the largest wave of attacks on Middle East shipping of the conflict so far — Iran-backed Houthi militants claimed strikes on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, on top of renewed action around the Strait of Hormuz.
Bond markets took it badly. The 10-year yield rose 19bp on the week to 4.975% and the 30-year reached 5.354%, levels Reuters described as the highest since before the global financial crisis. Equities fell across the board, with the S&P 500 down 0.80% and the Russell 2000 off 2.41%.
Friday brought relief rather than resolution. Crude gave back 2.4%, and equities rallied hard — the S&P rose 0.86%, the Dow 0.98%, and the VIX fell 11.21% in a single session. That was a positioning unwind on a softer oil print, not a change in the underlying picture.
August CPI was genuinely mixed. Headline rose 0.4% month-on-month, exactly as forecast and up from 0.1% in July, holding 3.4% year-on-year. But core came in at 0.3% against a 0.2% consensus — hotter than expected on the month — even as the annual core rate eased to 2.4%, its lowest since March 2021. Hot on the month, cooling on the year. It did not settle the argument.
The ECB did settle its own. It raised the deposit rate 25bp to 2.50% in Berlin on Thursday, unanimously, with Lagarde calling the move “a no brainer” and describing it as robust against all three scenarios the bank has mapped. It was the second hike since the Iran conflict pushed energy prices up, and investors immediately began pricing more.
That leaves Wednesday's FOMC as the week's single event. Odds of a 25bp hike to 3.75–4.00% had risen to about 61% on the CME FedWatch tool by 8 September, from 44% a month earlier, and firmed further after CPI. Prediction markets are close to evenly split. The probability of at least one hike before year-end sits above 85%.
2. Rates: The Front End Leads for a Third Week
| Tenor | Close | Friday | Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13-week bill | 3.913% | +6.8bp | +15.6bp |
| 5-year | 4.791% | +5.8bp | +24.1bp |
| 10-year | 4.975% | +3.1bp | +19.1bp |
| 30-year | 5.354% | −0.7bp | +10.8bp |
The 5-year added 24bp against the 30-year's 11bp — the third consecutive week the front end has led. Across those three weeks the 5s30s spread has compressed roughly 29bp. The 30-year actually fell slightly on Friday while the front end kept rising.
That is a market pricing a higher near-term policy rate without marking up its long-run inflation expectations. It is also the shape that historically precedes the end of a tightening cycle rather than the middle of one — worth watching if the Fed hikes on Wednesday and the long end does not follow.
| Policy | Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Fed funds | 3.50%–3.75% | Decision Wednesday 16th; ~61% priced for 25bp to 3.75–4.00% |
| ECB deposit rate | 2.50% | Raised 25bp on 10 Sept, unanimous; further hikes being priced |
| BoJ | Decision 18 Sept | Yen up three straight weeks on hike expectations |
3. Currencies
The Franc Is the Story, Not the Dollar
The dollar index barely moved, closing at 99.120 for a 0.04% weekly loss, still marginally below its 200-day average at 99.144. The interesting move was underneath.
USD/CHF rose 0.95% to 0.8176 and now sits 0.35% from its 52-week high — the closest any pair we track is to a one-year extreme. The franc has weakened for three consecutive weeks, against an oil shock, falling equities and a 19bp rise in the 10-year yield. A textbook haven currency at its weakest in a year during exactly the conditions that normally support it is the clearest signal in the FX table: this market is trading interest-rate differentials, not risk.
| Pair | Close | Week | YTD | RSI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1573 | −0.36% | −1.51% | 46.3 |
| USD/JPY | 154.002 | −1.41% | −1.74% | 30.6 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3506 | −0.08% | +0.24% | 47.3 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7151 | −0.78% | +7.07% | 51.8 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3869 | +0.26% | +1.12% | 49.2 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8176 | +0.95% | +3.23% | 62.5 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5790 | −1.58% | +0.56% | 34.9 |
Yen: Three Weeks of Gains Into the BoJ
USD/JPY fell another 1.41% to 154.002, a third consecutive weekly decline and 3.60% lower in September alone. The yen is now up 1.74% against the dollar for the year, having been down 2.16% a fortnight ago. RSI at 30.6 sits at the edge of the lower band, and the pair remains well below its 200-day average at 158.408.
The BoJ decides on Friday 18 September, two days after the Fed. Hike expectations have built steadily, and the Ministry of Finance has already demonstrated it will act — a record ¥15.4 trillion was spent supporting the currency between late July and late August. The risk into this week is two-sided and unusually large: a Fed hike on Wednesday widens the differential again, while a BoJ move on Friday narrows it.
Euro: Hiked, and Still Lower
EUR/USD fell 0.36% to 1.1573 in the week the ECB raised rates — a reminder that a fully priced hike delivers nothing on the day. The pair is down 1.51% for the year and remains below its 200-day average at 1.1633, where it has now spent three weeks.
The euro's problem is the same one driving the hike. The eurozone imports its energy, and Brent at 104.61 is a direct terms-of-trade cost. Lagarde has tied the bank's reaction function explicitly to oil and gas, with staff running scenario analysis on both. European equities reflected it, with the DAX down 1.83% and the CAC 1.20%.
Sterling, Pacific and Canada
GBP/USD was the week's most stable major at −0.08%, closing at 1.3506 and still above its 200-day at 1.3451.
The Pacific pair split sharply. AUD/USD fell 0.78% to 0.7151 but holds +7.07% year-to-date, still the strongest G10 performance against the dollar. NZD/USD dropped 1.58% to 0.5790 with RSI at 34.9, and has fallen below its 200-day average — its year-to-date gain has narrowed to just 0.56% from 2.81% two weeks ago. The kiwi is now the weakest commodity currency in the set.
USD/CAD rose 0.26% to 1.3869 despite crude gaining 9%, which is unusual and reflects broad dollar-differential pressure outweighing the terms-of-trade benefit.
Emerging Markets: Energy Importers Under Pressure Again
| Pair | Level | Week | YTD | Local currency vs USD, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL | 5.126 | +0.0% | −7.08% | Real stronger |
| USD/ZAR | 16.18 | +1.4% | −2.27% | Rand stronger |
| USD/INR | 95.54 | +1.2% | +6.20% | Rupee weaker |
| USD/IDR | 17,595 | −0.2% | +5.56% | Rupiah weaker |
| USD/TRY | 48.62 | +0.4% | +13.08% | Lira weaker |
The rupee was the week's worst performer in the group at 1.2%, which is what a 9% weekly rise in crude does to a large net energy importer. The rand lost 1.4% despite South Africa's commodity exposure.
The annual split we have tracked since late August is intact and widening at the edges: Brazil at −7.08% and South Africa at −2.27% — both currencies stronger against a rising dollar — against India at +6.20%, Indonesia +5.56% and Turkey +13.08%. Oil up 74% year-to-date is the single variable separating them.
4. Equities: Everything Down, Then Friday
| Index | Close | Friday | Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,656.98 | +0.86% | −0.80% | +11.85% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,333.04 | +0.96% | −0.66% | +13.30% |
| Dow Jones | 52,573.29 | +0.98% | −1.57% | +9.38% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,903.94 | +0.45% | −2.41% | +17.00% |
| VIX | 15.84 | −11.21% | +9.02% | +5.95% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,650.40 | +0.39% | −1.67% | +7.24% |
| DAX | 25,568.56 | +0.82% | −1.83% | +4.40% |
| CAC 40 | 8,179.77 | +0.78% | −1.20% | +0.37% |
| Nikkei 225 | 64,011.34 | −1.93% | −1.55% | +27.16% |
| Hang Seng | 24,805.63 | −0.60% | −3.30% | −3.22% |
| Shanghai Composite | 3,888.11 | −1.18% | −1.07% | −2.03% |
Every index we track fell on the week. Hong Kong was worst at −3.30%, pushing the Hang Seng to −3.22% for the year, and the Russell 2000 lost 2.41% — small caps remain the cleanest read on rate expectations.
Friday reversed a good deal of it in the West but not in Asia, which closed before the US CPI print and the oil pullback. The Nikkei fell 1.93% on the day, Shanghai 1.18%.
The Nasdaq is now the only index we track still above its stacked moving averages, and even that is marginal at 26,333 against a 20-day of 26,316. The S&P's RSI closed at exactly 50.0 — the market is at its own equilibrium going into the Fed. Europe continues to lag: the CAC at +0.37% year-to-date is close to flat, and the DAX has fallen from 0.18% off its 52-week high three weeks ago to 3.95% below it now.
5. Commodities
Exchange futures settlements, not spot.
| Instrument | Close | Friday | Week | MTD | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 100.05 | −2.37% | +9.37% | +16.66% | +74.24% |
| Brent Crude | 104.61 | −2.81% | +8.65% | +15.60% | +71.91% |
| Natural Gas | 2.831 | −0.11% | −4.84% | −3.54% | −23.20% |
| Gold (COMEX) | 4,366.20 | +0.04% | −1.44% | −1.46% | +0.94% |
| Silver (COMEX) | 64.554 | +0.42% | −2.26% | −2.52% | −7.96% |
| Palladium (NYMEX) | 1,310.90 | +2.31% | −5.70% | −3.82% | −19.54% |
| Copper ($/lb) | 6.4695 | +0.04% | −1.93% | −1.88% | +14.91% |
| Wheat (¢/bu) | 707.00 | −2.25% | −1.26% | −6.54% | +39.45% |
| Corn (¢/bu) | 510.25 | −0.73% | −0.34% | −0.92% | +15.90% |
| Soybeans (¢/bu) | 1,280.25 | −2.72% | −1.04% | +0.39% | +24.24% |
Energy. Crude is up 16.66% in September alone and 74.24% for the year. WTI's RSI at 71.5 is in the upper band, the only instrument we track in that condition, and Brent's at 68.4 is close behind. Both are in confirmed uptrends above stacked moving averages, and both are now within 17% of their 52-week highs having been 30% below six weeks ago. Friday's 2.4% pullback is small relative to the move.
Gold is the anomaly of 2026 and it is getting starker. It fell 1.44% to 4,366.20 and is now up just 0.94% for the year — essentially flat — in a year featuring an accelerating inflation rate, a shooting war affecting the world's most important energy corridor, and crude up 74%. It sits 21.84% below its 52-week high and below its 200-day average at 4,526.81. Silver is worse at −7.96% year-to-date. Whatever is driving the precious complex, it is not the macro backdrop, and we do not have a satisfactory explanation.
Elsewhere. Palladium fell 5.70% and is down 19.54% for the year, the weakest major commodity. Copper lost 1.93%. Natural gas fell 4.84% despite the energy shock, a divergence from crude worth watching given European inventories heading into winter. Wheat eased 1.26% but holds +39.45% for the year.
6. Crypto: Bitcoin's Golden Cross Arrives
| Asset | Close | Friday | Week | YTD | From 52w high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 77,173.80 | +0.79% | −3.14% | −11.81% | −38.85% |
| Ethereum | 2,514.73 | +3.19% | +2.39% | −15.24% | −47.21% |
| Solana | 102.40 | +3.76% | +0.44% | −17.74% | −59.56% |
| XRP | 1.3562 | +1.56% | −3.06% | −26.29% | −57.40% |
We noted last week that Bitcoin's 50-day average sat 846 points below its 200-day and would cross within days on the prevailing trajectory. It crossed. The 50-day now stands at 70,645 against a 200-day of 70,025 — a golden cross, and the first time the structure has been right-way-up in this recovery.
It happened while price fell 3.14%, which is the honest version of the story: moving-average crossovers describe where price has been, not where it is going, and Bitcoin closed the week below its own 20-day at 78,612.
The divergence inside the complex widened for a second week. Ethereum gained 2.39% and Solana 0.44% while Bitcoin lost 3.14% and XRP 3.06%. Ethereum and Solana are both in confirmed uptrends above stacked averages; Bitcoin and XRP are not. Friday was strong across the board — Ethereum +3.19%, Solana +3.76% — on the same risk-on impulse that lifted equities.
The annual picture is unchanged and remains the context for everything above: all four are down between 11.81% and 26.29% for 2026, and between 38.85% and 59.56% below their own 52-week highs.
7. Levels to Watch
Computed from daily bars at the 11 September close. Levels are drawn from moving averages, weekly pivots, the prior week's range, recent swing extremes and Fibonacci retracements — the derivation is shown beside each. ATR and RSI use Wilder smoothing, matching MT5 and TradingView. Weekly range is 14-day ATR scaled to five sessions — how far this market moves in a normal week, not a projection.
| Instrument | Close | Nearest resistance | Nearest support | Wk range | RSI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,656.98 | 7,685.1920-day MA | 7,642.84weekly pivot | ±1.8% | 50.0 |
| Nasdaq | 26,333.04 | 26,491.01weekly R1 | 26,297.283m Fib 23.6% | ±2.6% | 51.8 |
| Russell 2000 | 2,903.94 | 2,918.19weekly pivot | 2,888.87Fib 23.6% | ±2.4% | 38.8 |
| DAX | 25,568.56 | 25,630.08weekly pivot | 25,496.58Fib 23.6% | ±2.2% | 41.4 |
| Nikkei 225 | 64,011.34 | 64,186.68prior wk low | 63,208.631m low | ±4.9% | 41.5 |
| Hang Seng | 24,805.63 | 24,889.64prior wk low | 24,633.55Fib 61.8% | ±3.1% | 38.6 |
| Shanghai | 3,888.11 | 3,934.8020-day MA | 3,850.861m low | ±2.6% | 42.9 |
| Dollar Index | 99.120 | 99.413Fib 38.2% | 98.675Fib 50% | ±1.0% | 44.5 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1573 | 1.1592Fib 61.8% | 1.153050-day MA | ±0.9% | 46.3 |
| USD/JPY | 154.002 | 154.542weekly pivot | 153.002Fib 61.8% | ±2.2% | 30.6 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3506 | 1.3522weekly pivot | 1.3485prior wk low | ±1.0% | 47.3 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7151 | 0.716620-day MA | 0.7125weekly S1 | ±1.4% | 51.8 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8176 | 0.81841m high | 0.81443m Fib 23.6% | ±1.5% | 62.5 |
| Gold | 4,366.20 | 4,400.293m Fib 38.2% | 4,330.70prior wk low | ±3.7% | 47.9 |
| Silver | 64.554 | 64.9933m Fib 38.2% | 64.145prior wk low | ±6.8% | 47.8 |
| WTI Crude | 100.05 | 104.04prior wk high | 98.41weekly pivot | ±9.3% | 71.5 |
| Brent Crude | 104.61 | 109.05prior wk high | 103.28weekly pivot | ±9.1% | 68.4 |
| Bitcoin | 77,173.80 | 77,856.47weekly pivot | 76,470.64prior wk low | ±6.6% | 54.8 |
| Ethereum | 2,514.73 | 2,534.86prior wk high | 2,467.6920-day MA | ±8.6% | 63.2 |
| Solana | 102.40 | 104.31weekly R1 | 101.50weekly pivot | ±9.7% | 58.5 |
Trend. Above stacked moving averages: Nasdaq, WTI, Brent, Ethereum, Solana. Above the 200-day but mixed: S&P 500, Russell 2000, DAX, Nikkei, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, Bitcoin, XRP. Below the 200-day: Gold, Silver, Hang Seng, Shanghai, Dollar Index, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NZD/USD.
Last Week's Levels, Reviewed
- Gold — support broke. We gave support at 4,400.29 and resistance at 4,467.15. Gold traded down through the support and closed at 4,366.20, never testing the upside. Direction correct, and the level marked the break.
- WTI — resistance blown through. Resistance at 93.14 was cleared within two sessions and crude finished at 100.05. The level was correct but far too close; a 9.4% week overwhelmed a 1.8% band.
- Bitcoin — support broke, marginally. Support at 77,592 gave way, with Bitcoin closing at 77,174. Resistance at 82,262 was never approached.
- USD/JPY — support broke. Support at 155.345 gave way on a third consecutive weekly decline to 154.002.
- Bitcoin's moving averages — crossed as expected. We said the 50-day and 200-day would cross within days. They did, on 11 September.
- Risks — two of six materialised. Hormuz escalation and energy feeding into inflation both played out directly. The CPI surprise was partial: core came in above consensus on the month while the annual rate fell.
8. Week Ahead
| Day | Event | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Tue 15 | FOMC meeting begins (two days) | |
| Wed 16 | FOMC decision, 2:00pm ET | ~61% priced for 25bp to 3.75–4.00% |
| Wed 16 | Updated projections and dot plot | First full set since June |
| Wed 16 | Chair Warsh press conference, 2:30pm ET | |
| Wed 16 | EIA crude inventories | Hormuz keeps stockpiles in focus |
| Thu 17 | US jobless claims | |
| Fri 18 | Bank of Japan decision | Yen up three straight weeks into it |
Wednesday is the week. The decision matters less than the projections: with a hike roughly 60% priced, the dot plot and Warsh's guidance on the October and December meetings will drive the reaction. A hike that comes with a dovish dot plot and a hold that comes with a hawkish one produce opposite market outcomes to the headline.
Friday's BoJ decision is the second event and is being underpriced relative to its potential. A Fed hike on Wednesday followed by a BoJ hike on Friday would be the largest two-day swing in the rate differential this year.
9. Risks
| Risk | Direction | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| FOMC dot plot | USD ↑↓, sharp | The projections matter more than the decision. A 60%-priced hike is largely in the price; the 2027 path is not. |
| Oil above $100 | Rates ↑, equities ↓ | Up 16.66% in September alone. WTI RSI at 71.5. Feeds directly into the next CPI print. |
| Red Sea and Hormuz shipping | Oil ↑ | Attacks on Saudi tankers were the trigger for the move through $100. No de-escalation in sight. |
| BoJ on Friday | JPY ↑, Nikkei ↓ | Yen up three weeks running with RSI at 30.6. A hike two days after the Fed compounds the move. |
| Long-end yields | Cross-asset | 30-year at 5.354%, reported as the highest since before the financial crisis. |
| Gold's non-reaction | Positioning | Up 0.94% for the year against oil at +74% and accelerating inflation. The usual relationship has broken and we cannot explain it. |
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