Freight, not supply, set the price of energy: Brent rose 6.24% while WTI gained only 1.83%, US natural gas fell 15.28%, and gold broke below $4,000 for a third week without a safe-haven bid. This is the week's read on rates, currencies, equities, commodities and crypto, with the levels we are watching into it.
1. Freight Is Setting the Price of Energy
The largest moves of the week were not about how much oil and gas exists. They were about moving it. Brent rose 6.24% to 116.72 while WTI gained only 1.83%, widening the gap between the two benchmarks to roughly $13.50 — against a normal post-2017 range of $2 to $5. In the same week, US natural gas fell 15.28% while Dutch and British wholesale gas reached four-year highs. Same conflict, opposite outcomes, because the binding constraint is transport.
The Brent–WTI dislocation is the clearest case. Brent is priced on waterborne delivery, so record tanker rates — around $1.3m a day — feed directly into it. Normally a discount that wide pulls American crude overseas and closes the gap; that arbitrage is not working, because freight costs consume the spread. The inventory data shows the same split: US commercial crude fell 8.6m barrels to 415.6m in the week to 9 October, yet stocks at Cushing, the WTI delivery point, rose from 24.7m to 26.6m. Over the past month the Brent ETF gained 8.68% while the WTI equivalent slipped 0.40%.
Gas tells the mirror image. US futures collapsed on exceptionally mild forecasts through 7 November, with El Niño strengthening, while European prices hit four-year highs because shipping attacks have constrained LNG supply. The positioning is worth noting: speculators now hold their largest bearish US gas bet in years, into a storage surplus that has shrunk to 0.7% above normal from 1.0% a week earlier, after nine consecutive below-normal injections. A crowded short and a thinning cushion is a combination that reverses badly on one cold snap.
The war itself escalated — Houthi strikes hit the Saudi port of Yanbu, oil infrastructure and an airport, with reports that the US and Israel may be preparing renewed attacks on Iran. Hormuz flows have formally normalised but Kpler puts the seven-day average 26% below the pre-conflict baseline. Brent is up 91.82% for the year and the S&P energy sector reached a record high on Friday.
And gold broke $4,000 anyway. It fell 4.14% to 4,007.90, its worst week since June, and now sits 2.73% above its own 52-week low. Silver lost 5.76%, palladium 5.99%. For a third consecutive week, escalating conflict produced no safe-haven bid in the metals. The mechanism is not mysterious — higher oil raises inflation expectations, which raises expected rates, which raises the cost of holding an asset that pays nothing — but it does mean the usual hedge is not functioning in the one environment it was supposed to be built for.
Equities priced the cost of money, not the price of growth. Meta reported record revenue, up 26% to $64.6bn, and fell 9.4% on the week — its worst since May — because it raised the floor of 2026 capital spending to $135bn. Tesla cut its 2026 investment plan to around $20bn and beat. Baird’s Ted Mortonson put the sector’s problem plainly: roughly $1trn of planned capex next year requires equity and debt markets to stay wide open. Citadel’s Ken Griffin called AI “almost certainly” a bubble during the week.
Over the weekend that argument acquired a dividing line. SpaceX raised $40bn of debt to buy GPUs, structured through a special-purpose vehicle to keep it off the balance sheet and protect the investment-grade rating. Musk’s accompanying remark is the part that matters: for the past several weeks, debt markets have given almost no access to any company without meaningful revenue independent of AI data centres. SpaceX could borrow because Starlink and launch revenue are not tied to data centres. He expects the 200-plus “neocloud” compute-rental firms to consolidate into a handful of survivors.
That single sentence connects what had been separate warnings through October: CoreWeave’s bond yield above 15%, Oracle’s credit rating approaching junk, Meta burning cash for the first time. Danske Bank makes the same observation from the other side, noting that it has become more expensive for investors to insure against defaults in the sector. There are now two AI markets — companies with independent revenue can borrow, and companies without it cannot.
And Brazil changed hands. Lula won an unprecedented fourth term on Sunday with 51.8% against Flavio Bolsonaro’s 48.2%, the first time since 1989 that a candidate has trailed in the first round and won the second. Bolsonaro has not conceded and says he will seek annulment. The iShares MSCI Brazil fund fell as much as 20% in overnight trading before settling around −18%. That matters here because the real has been the single strongest emerging currency in this report all quarter, up 10.00% for the year.
Against all of that, the Fed got priced out. Odds of a hike on Wednesday fell to around 10%, from 18% a week earlier and roughly 20% as recently as Friday, with December at about 80%. The 10-year yield dropped 11bp to 4.988%. The market has decided an oil shock that taxes consumption is a growth problem rather than an inflation problem the Fed must chase — which is the single assumption most exposed to Wednesday’s statement.
2. Rates: Back Below 5%
| Tenor | Close | Friday | Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13-week bill | 4.032% | +1.0bp | −3.8bp |
| 5-year | 4.805% | +3.7bp | −9.4bp |
| 10-year | 4.988% | +3.5bp | −11.0bp |
| 30-year | 5.315% | +2.8bp | −12.1bp |
The whole curve fell for a second consecutive week, the long end leading. The 10-year closed below 5% for the first time in three weeks, down 5.76% on the month. Yields rose on Friday as oil surged, but not enough to reverse the week.
This is the market pricing a growth problem rather than an inflation one. An oil shock does both — it raises prices and it taxes consumption — and over the past fortnight the second effect has dominated the pricing. That is a meaningful shift from September, when every energy move pushed hike expectations higher.
| Policy | Level | This week |
|---|---|---|
| Fed funds | 3.75%–4.00% | FOMC 27–28 October — hike odds down to ~10%; December ~78% |
| BoJ policy rate | 1.25% | Decision 29–30 October, with a fresh Outlook Report |
| ECB deposit rate | 2.50% | December expected |
3. Currencies
A Flat Week for the Dollar
The dollar index closed at 101.810, down 0.03% — effectively unchanged — and has lost its confirmed uptrend, now trading below its 20-day average at 101.935. RSI has eased to 54.8. The index remains up 3.59% for the year.
| Pair | Close | Week | YTD | RSI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1221 | −0.04% | −4.51% | 35.9 |
| USD/JPY | 157.056 | −0.48% | +0.21% | 44.6 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3372 | +0.27% | −0.75% | 55.0 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7027 | +0.79% | +5.22% | 52.4 |
| USD/CAD | 1.4013 | −0.75% | +2.16% | 38.3 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8239 | +0.02% | +4.03% | 47.7 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5701 | +0.75% | −0.98% | 54.8 |
The Commodity Currencies Turn
AUD/USD rose 0.79% to 0.7027 and NZD/USD 0.75% to 0.5701, the week’s two strongest G10 performers, both lifted by the commodity complex. The Australian dollar is up 5.22% for the year and has regained its position as the best G10 performance against the dollar. The kiwi’s RSI has recovered from 27.6 two weeks ago to 54.8 — a full round trip out of the lower band.
USD/CAD fell 0.75% to 1.4013 as crude rose for a second week, with RSI down to 38.3. The loonie has strengthened 2.0% from its 52-week low area over the past fortnight.
Euro and Yen: Both Going Nowhere
EUR/USD closed at 1.1221, down 0.04% — a second consecutive week of almost no movement after five straight declines. It remains in a confirmed downtrend and down 4.51% for the year, with RSI at 35.9. The pair has traded in a 60-pip range for a fortnight.
USD/JPY fell 0.48% to 157.056. The Bank of Japan decides on 29–30 October, two days after the Fed, with a fresh Outlook Report. With the Fed now priced for a hold, the differential story that drove this pair through September has lost its main engine.
Emerging Markets: The Real Reaches 10%
| Pair | Level | Week | YTD | Local currency vs USD, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL | 4.965 | −1.9% | −10.00% | Real stronger |
| USD/INR | 95.15 | +0.2% | +5.76% | Rupee weaker |
| USD/ZAR | 16.62 | +1.0% | +0.42% | Rand weaker |
| USD/IDR | 18,115 | +0.3% | +8.68% | Rupiah weaker |
| USD/TRY | 49.76 | +0.5% | +15.73% | Lira weaker |
The Brazilian real has now gained exactly 10.00% against the dollar in 2026, trading below 4.97, and is the strongest emerging currency we track by a very wide margin. It has risen in four of the past five weeks. The rand has turned negative for the year, leaving Brazil as the sole outperformer in the group.
Sunday’s election puts that position in question. Lula’s fourth-term win, with the result contested, sent Brazilian equity funds down close to 20% in overnight trading. The real had not yet traded in the Asian session at the time of writing. A currency carrying a 10% annual gain into a disputed election result is the most exposed position in the emerging-market table, and the risk runs in both directions — a 10% gain is also a large cushion.
Elsewhere, France escaped a Moody’s downgrade, which kept Aa3 with a negative outlook while noting that a substantial and sustained fiscal effort is still needed to stabilise a debt burden set to exceed 120% of national income in 2027. The euro took modest relief from it. Danske Bank’s published forecast has EUR/USD at 1.10 in six and twelve months, against 1.1221 now.
4. Equities: The Dow Up, Everything Else Down
| Index | Close | Friday | Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,623.68 | −0.52% | −0.47% | +11.37% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,955.34 | −0.21% | −0.71% | +11.67% |
| Dow Jones | 52,215.16 | −1.23% | +0.41% | +8.64% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,775.90 | −0.29% | +2.00% | +11.85% |
| VIX | 19.45 | +2.21% | −2.70% | +30.10% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,690.40 | −0.32% | −1.76% | +7.64% |
| DAX | 25,181.65 | −0.75% | −1.72% | +2.82% |
| CAC 40 | 7,782.82 | −0.36% | −2.19% | −4.50% |
| Nikkei 225 | 62,693.16 | −0.34% | −4.03% | +24.54% |
| Hang Seng | 23,093.37 | +0.69% | −4.52% | −9.90% |
| Shanghai Composite | 3,690.48 | +0.89% | −0.69% | −7.01% |
The S&P fell for a second consecutive week and the Nasdaq a second too, though both losses were modest compared with the 4.48% rout a week earlier. The Russell 2000 gained 2.00%, the week’s strongest US performance and a reversal of four weeks of underperformance, and the Dow added 0.41% for a third straight weekly gain. Friday itself was poor — the Dow fell 653 points as selling spread well beyond AI.
Europe gave back the previous week’s rotation gains, with the CAC down 2.19%, the DAX 1.72% and the FTSE 1.76%. The CAC is now down 4.50% for the year.
Asia was the week’s real weakness. The Hang Seng fell 4.52% and is down 9.90% for 2026, 17.69% below its 52-week high and only 2.56% above its 52-week low, with RSI at 30.9. The Nikkei fell 4.03% for a second heavy week, is 13.92% off its high and has given back a third of its annual gain in a fortnight, though it still holds +24.54%. Both Chinese indices remain in confirmed downtrends.
5. Commodities
| Instrument | Close | Friday | Week | MTD | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | 116.72 | +3.14% | +6.24% | +12.74% | +91.82% |
| WTI Crude | 103.27 | +3.82% | +1.83% | +14.21% | +79.85% |
| Natural Gas | 2.640 | −5.58% | −15.28% | −12.76% | −28.38% |
| Gold (COMEX) | 4,007.90 | −1.29% | −4.14% | −4.27% | −7.68% |
| Silver (COMEX) | 53.711 | −1.92% | −5.76% | −10.63% | −23.42% |
| Platinum (NYMEX) | 1,554.20 | −0.85% | −4.26% | −8.70% | −23.61% |
| Palladium (NYMEX) | 1,046.60 | −0.48% | −5.99% | −12.88% | −35.76% |
| Copper ($/lb) | 6.4760 | +1.78% | −0.84% | −1.27% | +15.03% |
| Wheat (¢/bu) | 625.00 | +0.04% | −5.37% | −7.51% | +23.27% |
| Corn (¢/bu) | 456.00 | −0.98% | −3.85% | −8.94% | +3.58% |
| Soybeans (¢/bu) | 1,256.50 | +0.28% | −0.38% | −2.82% | +21.93% |
Crude: the benchmarks have decoupled. Brent’s 6.24% gain took it to 116.72 with RSI at 74.1 — the only instrument we track in the upper band — leaving it 7.44% below its 52-week high and up 91.82% for the year. WTI rose only 1.83%. The spread is now around $13.50, against $8.45 a week ago and $3.57 in late September, and both curves are deeply backwardated. Note the forecast gap: the EIA’s latest outlook has Brent averaging $91.01 in 2026 and $73.74 in 2027, well below where it trades today. US commercial crude stocks have fallen for three straight weeks to 412.5m barrels, around 3% below the five-year average.
Natural gas fell 15.28%, the largest move in any instrument this week, to a two-month low — down 22% over a month and 28.38% for the year. Mild forecasts through early November did it, helped by a strengthening El Niño. The contrary evidence is the storage position: the surplus over normal has fallen to 0.7% after nine consecutive below-normal injections, salt-cavern storage in the Gulf is tight, and LNG export flows rose to 18.2 bcfd in October from 17.9 in September while Lower 48 output slipped from a record 113.3 bcfd to about 111.6. European benchmarks went the other way entirely, reaching four-year highs.
Monday tested the gas call immediately. Natural gas jumped 13.45% to around $3.00, the sharpest move of the session, after the previous week’s 15% collapse. A crowded short into a thin storage cushion is exactly the configuration that produces that, and it took one shift in the forecast to trigger it.
Oil pulled back on Monday — Brent to 114.51 and WTI to 101.04 — after Qatari mediators travelled to Tehran on Sunday in a US-coordinated effort to reduce regional tension. Two caveats came with it. Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights notes that Trump has not dispelled market expectations of strikes on Iran after the 3 November midterms, so the relief may be temporary. Priyanka Sachdeva of Phillip Nova reads the move as position adjustment rather than any real improvement in supply. Meanwhile the US has begun rapidly evacuating personnel from embassies and bases across the Middle East, after a memo from the Director of National Intelligence warned that Iranian lethal planning against US citizens has reached advanced stages.
Gallo Partners’ Michael Alfaro estimates geopolitical risk has already added roughly $20 a barrel, and puts the demand-destruction threshold at $120–140 Brent; he argues the deeper structural problem is refining capacity, extending into 2027 and beyond. IEA head Fatih Birol said on Monday he does not expect energy markets to return to their pre-war state in 2027. Danske Bank’s forecast has Brent averaging 100 in the fourth quarter and 90 across 2027, against 116.72 now.
The precious complex is in free fall. Gold lost 4.14% and broke below $4,000, trading as low as roughly $3,995 in spot. It is down 7.68% for the year, 28.25% below its January high, and now sits just 2.73% above its own 52-week low. Silver fell 5.76% and is down 23.42% for 2026 with RSI at 29.7; platinum lost 4.26% and palladium 5.99%, the latter down 35.76% on the year. All four are in confirmed downtrends. UBS sees structural buyers establishing a floor near $4,000; the data does not yet show one.
Agricultural markets fell broadly, with wheat down 5.37% and corn 3.85%. Copper slipped 0.84% but holds +15.03% for the year.
6. Crypto: Quiet, and Still Lower
| Asset | Close | Friday | Week | YTD | From 52w high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 81,074.19 | −0.29% | −0.52% | −7.35% | −30.27% |
| Ethereum | 2,384.08 | −0.09% | −1.47% | −19.65% | −43.91% |
| Solana | 102.78 | −0.74% | −1.45% | −17.44% | −49.87% |
| XRP | 1.2939 | −1.05% | −1.23% | −29.68% | −51.96% |
A third consecutive down week, but a calm one — all four fell between 0.52% and 1.47% after the sharper declines of the previous fortnight. Bitcoin held above $81,000 and is sitting on its 50-day average at 81,778, with RSI at 45.2.
October has been poor across the board: Ethereum is down 11.16% month-to-date, Solana 12.89% and XRP 13.06%, against Bitcoin’s 2.97%. The dispersion is the notable feature — Bitcoin is behaving quite differently from the rest of the complex, losing roughly a quarter of what the altcoins have given up this month.
The ETF flows were two-sided, which the weekly close conceals. Spot Bitcoin funds took in $1.07bn between Monday and Wednesday, then gave back $773.5m across Thursday and Friday — Thursday’s $635.6m was the largest single-day outflow of the month. The week still finished roughly $301m positive, breaking a two-week losing run, but October remains $314m negative. Cumulative net inflows since launch stand at $57.6bn against $100.2bn of net assets. Ether funds lost $221m on the week and about $1.18bn across October; Solana funds are $68m down for the month.
Bitcoin broke $80,000 on Monday, its weakest level in over a month, with ether at 2,326 and XRP at 1.2916. Jeff Mei of BTSE reads it as pre-FOMC de-risking and frames the week’s question as how strongly the chair signals a December hike rather than what happens on Wednesday.
Two reference points traders are using. 82,500 is the floor lost on 23 October, and 83,000 is the level that invalidates the widely circulated nine-step bearish roadmap for the fourth quarter — whose first two conditions, a weekly close below 83,000 and a failed breakout, have both now been met. On the prediction market Myriad, odds of Bitcoin reaching 77,500 before month-end rose to 43% from 32% in a day, while the probability of clearing 87,500 fell from 17% to 10%. Total crypto market capitalisation is $2.79trn.
For a third week running, crypto showed no haven characteristics during a period of escalating conflict and falling equity markets. It is trading as a risk asset, and currently as a nervous one.
7. Levels to Watch
| Instrument | Close | Nearest resistance | Nearest support | Wk range | RSI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,623.68 | 7,631.77 (prior wk low) | 7,612.07 (1m low) | ±2.1% | 42.2 |
| Nasdaq | 25,955.34 | 26,063.08 (Fib 23.6%) | 25,866.15 (1m low) | ±3.3% | 38.0 |
| Russell 2000 | 2,775.90 | 2,788.63 (20-day MA) | 2,763.99 (weekly pivot) | ±2.8% | 43.3 |
| DAX | 25,181.65 | 25,275.47 (20-day MA) | 25,050.11 (prior wk low) | ±2.8% | 45.7 |
| Nikkei 225 | 62,693.16 | 62,907.84 (prior wk low) | 61,973.02 (weekly S1) | ±5.1% | 35.9 |
| Hang Seng | 23,093.37 | 23,402.03 (weekly pivot) | 22,879.11 (prior wk low) | ±3.7% | 30.9 |
| Shanghai | 3,690.48 | 3,722.58 (weekly R1) | 3,649.86 (prior wk low) | ±3.4% | 32.4 |
| Dollar Index | 101.810 | 101.914 (3m Fib 23.6%) | 101.450 (prior wk low) | ±1.0% | 54.8 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1221 | 1.1238 (20-day MA) | 1.1187 (prior wk low) | ±1.2% | 35.9 |
| USD/JPY | 157.056 | 157.551 (50-day MA) | 156.297 (Fib 61.8%) | ±1.5% | 44.6 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3372 | 1.3406 (50-day MA) | 1.3343 (3m Fib 61.8%) | ±1.2% | 55.0 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7027 | 0.7039 (prior wk high) | 0.7007 (weekly pivot) | ±1.6% | 52.4 |
| USD/CAD | 1.4013 | 1.4033 (weekly pivot) | 1.3988 (Fib 38.2%) | ±1.1% | 38.3 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8239 | 0.8268 (prior wk high) | 0.8224 (3m Fib 38.2%) | ±1.5% | 47.7 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5701 | 0.5711 (prior wk high) | 0.5683 (weekly pivot) | ±1.6% | 54.8 |
| Gold | 4,007.90 | 4,036.80 (prior wk low) | 3,991.33 (weekly S1) | ±4.4% | 30.7 |
| Silver | 53.711 | 54.390 (prior wk low) | 53.534 (weekly S1) | ±5.6% | 29.7 |
| WTI Crude | 103.27 | 104.26 (Fib 23.6%) | 102.07 (weekly pivot) | ±10.0% | 63.0 |
| Brent Crude | 116.72 | 117.41 (1m high) | 116.13 (weekly R1) | ±8.2% | 74.1 |
| Bitcoin | 81,074.19 | 81,778.34 (50-day MA) | 80,615.40 (prior wk low) | ±5.9% | 45.2 |
| Ethereum | 2,384.08 | 2,412.03 (weekly pivot) | 2,327.05 (prior wk low) | ±8.6% | 38.6 |
| Solana | 102.78 | 104.02 (3m Fib 61.8%) | 100.51 (prior wk low) | ±9.4% | 38.4 |
8. Week Ahead
| Day | Event | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 26 | German IFO business climate (Oct) | 90.1, from 89.9 |
| Tue 27 | US Conference Board consumer confidence (Oct) | 80.4, from 81.9 |
| ECB Bank Lending Survey; US new home sales | 650k, from 684k | |
| Wed 28 | FOMC decision | Hold at 3.75–4.00%; ~10% priced for a hike |
| RBNZ decision | Hike to 3.00%, from 2.75% | |
| Bank of Canada decision | 2.25% consensus; Danske expects a hike to 2.50% | |
| Alphabet and Microsoft earnings; UK 2027 budget | MSFT $90.6bn rev / $4.73 EPS; GOOGL $128bn / $3.00 | |
| Thu 29 | US core PCE (Sep) | +0.3% m/m, 3.1% y/y, from 0.2% and 3.0% |
| US Q3 GDP, preliminary | ~3.0% annualised; Danske 3.4% | |
| ECB decision and Lagarde | Hold at 2.50% | |
| Amazon earnings | $202bn revenue / $1.97 EPS | |
| Fri 30 | Bank of Japan decision | Hold at 1.25% |
| Euro area Q3 GDP and October HICP for the big four | EA GDP +0.2% q/q; German HICP 3.1% y/y |
Two central banks in four days, with the Fed now expected to hold. That makes the statement and the press conference the event rather than the decision — specifically how Warsh characterises an oil shock that raises prices while damaging demand. The market has already chosen growth over inflation in its pricing; a hawkish framing would reverse that quickly.
Thursday’s core PCE is the number that decides December. Consensus is 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annually, up from 0.2% and 3.0% — so the expected path is already higher. A print at or above that reinforces December; a miss is the only thing that takes the hiking cycle off the table this year.
Published house views diverge usefully. Danske Bank expects one more hike from the ECB and two more from the Fed, with the next in December. Bank of America is the outlier and expects a hike this Wednesday; its economist Claudio Irigoyen frames the bind well — hiking risks an over-tightening scare, holding risks the market questioning the Fed’s inflation credibility. JPMorgan’s Bruce Kasman reads the global picture as a comparatively shallow tightening cycle, with the big three on hold but Canada starting and the UK and Sweden moving next month.
Earnings carry equal weight. Roughly a third of the S&P 500 reports this week, with Alphabet and Microsoft landing on the same day as the Fed. The focus is capital-expenditure guidance rather than the quarter itself — big cloud providers are expected to spend around $800bn this year, and after Meta’s 9.4% fall the market is no longer extending them the benefit of the doubt. S&P 500 third-quarter earnings are tracking above 32% growth with more than 100 companies reported.
9. Risks
| Risk | Direction | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Brent above $120 | Rates ↑, equities ↓ | RSI at 74.1 and 7.4% from its 52-week high. Saudi infrastructure is now a target; Hormuz flows remain 26% below baseline. |
| AI debt markets closing | Equities ↓ | Musk: almost no access for firms without revenue independent of data centres. CoreWeave bonds above 15%, Oracle near junk. |
| Brazil election contested | EM ↓ | Brazilian equity funds fell ~18–20% overnight. The real carries a 10% annual gain into a disputed result. |
| Freight, not supply | Energy ↑ | Tanker rates near $1.3m/day have broken the WTI export arbitrage. The constraint is logistics, and it does not ease with a ceasefire. |
| Crowded short in US gas | Nat gas ↑, violent | Largest bearish positioning in years into a storage surplus of just 0.7% above normal. One cold snap reverses it. |
| Fed framing on Wednesday | Cross-asset | The market has priced the oil shock as a growth problem. A hawkish statement reprices it as an inflation problem. |
| Gold below $3,900 | Metals ↓ | Only 2.73% above its 52-week low, RSI 30.7, in a confirmed downtrend. A break invites deeper liquidation. |
| AI capex financing | Equities ↓ | Roughly $1trn of planned capex next year requires open equity and debt markets. Meta fell 9.4% on record revenue. |
| Hong Kong | Equities ↓ | Down 9.90% for the year, 2.56% above its 52-week low, RSI 30.9, in a confirmed downtrend. |
| BoJ on Friday | JPY ↑, Nikkei ↓ | The Nikkei has fallen 8% in two weeks. A hawkish Outlook Report into that is a live risk. |
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