28 trade ideas for 21 September 2026: 21 long and 7 short. Entry, stop and two targets are given for each, with the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.
Today's framework
A week of diplomacy: the UN General Assembly and the Trump–Xi summit on Thursday. Oil has fallen below $100, and for the first time in 45 weeks Bitcoin closed above its 50-week average. Japan is on holiday until Wednesday, and liquidity is low.
Core ideas
The core list is 14 positions: cryptocurrencies 4, indices 4, stocks 1, currencies 3, commodities 2. “Layer” is how firmly the idea is held — Core is a standing position, Tactical is held for the current setup only, and Trigger means nothing is done until the stated condition is met.
| No | Layer | Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Entry condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptocurrencies | ||||||||
| 1 | Tactical | BTCBTCUSDx | Long | 81,586 | 77,800 | 87,265 | 91,051 | Market, small size |
| 2 | Trigger | ETHETHUSDx | Long | 2,678 | 2,496 | 2,951 | 3,132 | 4-hour close above 2,678 |
| 3 | Trigger | SOLSOLx | Long | 114.83 | 105.73 | 128.47 | 137.56 | Daily close above 114.83 |
| 4 | Trigger | XRPXRPUSDx | Long | 1.4961 | 1.38 | 1.67 | 1.786 | Daily close above 1.4961 |
| Indices | ||||||||
| 5 | Core | S&P 500USSP_CFDx | Long | 7,650.5 | 7,488 | 7,894 | 8,057 | Market |
| 6 | Core | Nasdaq 100USTech_CFDx | Long | 29,644 | 28,693 | 31,071 | 32,022 | Market |
| 7 | Trigger | DAXEU_CFDx | Long | 25,700 | 25,173 | 26,491 | 27,018 | Daily close above 25,700 |
| 8 | Trigger | FTSE 100UK1x | Long | 10,820 | 10,586 | 11,171 | 11,405 | Daily close above 10,820 |
| Stocks | ||||||||
| 9 | Core | NVDANVDx | Long | 222.27 | 206.25 | 246.3 | 262.32 | Market |
| Currencies | ||||||||
| 10 | Core | EURUSDEURUSDx | Short | 1.1477 | 1.162 | 1.1263 | 1.112 | Market |
| 11 | Tactical | GBPUSDGBPUSDx | Short | 1.3377 | 1.347 | 1.3237 | 1.3144 | Market, small size |
| 12 | Core | AUDUSDAUDUSDx | Long | 0.7125 | 0.7072 | 0.7204 | 0.7257 | Market, small size |
| Commodities | ||||||||
| 13 | Tactical | GoldXAUUSDx | Long | 4,394.9 | 4,265 | 4,589 | 4,719 | Market, small size |
| 14 | Tactical | SilverXAGUSDx | Long | 66.68 | 63.02 | 72.17 | 75.83 | Market |
- 1. BTC — long. At 81,586, having closed the week above an important threshold: for the first time in 45 weeks, above the 50-week average (78,115). According to Galaxy, since 2011 there have been 13 similar breakouts, and no new low followed in 11 of them. ETFs took in $433m on Friday, wiping out two days of outflows totalling $750m. But leveraged buying in futures is at a record, and the 78,000 area could be tested. Action: long with small size, adding in the 78,000 area on a dip; target 84,000 and above. Invalidation: a daily close below 77,800.
- 2. ETH — long. At 2,667 after a 7.7% weekly gain, pressing against the 2,666–2,668 resistance that has held for three weeks. Bitcoin's break above its threshold opens room for ether as well. Action: long on a close above 2,678 on the 4-hour chart, target 2,950. Invalidation: below 2,496.
- 3. SOL — long. At 111.79 and the strongest of the majors with a 12.6% weekly gain, approaching the one-month high at 114.32. The trend has turned up. Action: long on a close above 114.83, target 128. Invalidation: below 105.73.
- 4. XRP — long. Recovered to 1.4305 with a 6.7% weekly gain; the Clarity Act defeat has largely been absorbed. The one-month high at 1.4961 sits just above and has been unbroken resistance for two weeks. Action: long on a daily close above 1.4961, target 1.67. Invalidation: below 1.38.
- 5. S&P 500 — long. At 7,651 after a flat week; technology rose while industrials and small caps fell. Oil falling below $100 eases inflation concerns, and futures are up 0.4% today. Price has settled on its one-month average and the trend is up. Action: long, target 7,894. Invalidation: below 7,488.
- 6. Nasdaq 100 — long. At 29,644 and up 0.9% on the week; leadership is again in chips, with AMD, ASML, Nvidia and TSMC rising on Friday. Asia is rising with chips today, Taiwan is at a three-month high and futures are up 0.6%. AI safety is on the agenda at Thursday's Trump–Xi summit. Action: long, target 31,071. Invalidation: below 28,693.
- 7. DAX — long. At 25,304 after a 1.6% fall on Friday, close to the one-month low. In Germany, Merz's party had its worst result since 1949 in a state election, with the far-right AfD in first place; German bonds may stay under pressure today. Action: no long without confirmation; long on a daily close above 25,700. Invalidation: below 25,173.
- 8. FTSE 100 — long. At 10,659 after a 1.45% fall on Friday, joining the European sell-off; oil dropping below 100 weakens the strongest leg of this energy-heavy index. Action: long on a daily close above 10,820. Invalidation: below 10,586.
- 9. NVDA — long. At $222.27 after a 1.3% rise on Friday, with price just above its one-month average; the trend is up on every timeframe. AI chip demand is being priced in Asia again today. Action: long, target 246. Invalidation: below 206.
- 10. EURUSD — short. At 1.1477 after closing the week down 1%, and the downtrend continues. France's borrowing costs over Germany's have reached the widest spread since the euro crisis, and the far right has come first in Germany for the second time. Last week's low at 1.1456 sits just below. Action: short maintained, target 1.1263. Invalidation: above 1.1620.
- 11. GBPUSD — short. At 1.3377 and pointing lower: a 1% weekly loss, weak indicators and price close to the one-month low. The Bank of England held rates, but sterling could not recover. Action: short with small size, target 1.3237. Invalidation: above 1.3470.
- 12. AUDUSD — long. At 0.7125 with the trend up; price has pulled back to its one-month average and the stop is very close, so the risk is small. Two more rate hikes are priced in Australia, and copper is approaching a record. Action: long with small size, target 0.7204. Invalidation: below 0.7072.
- 13. Gold — long. At 4,395 after slipping 0.7% on rising yields, just above the 200-day average. The two-year bond yield rose 0.36 percentage points in two weeks to its highest level since mid-2024, and the probability of a Fed hike in October is 55%. Action: long with small size, target 4,589. Invalidation: below 4,265; if yields keep rising, the idea is closed.
- 14. Silver — long. At 66.68 and up 3.3% on the week; copper approaching a record supports the industrial leg. Action: long, target 72. Invalidation: below 63.02.
Additional ideas
14 ideas outside the core list, taken on their own setups. They carry no layer marking.
| No | Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Entry condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | TSMTSMx | Long | 434.67 | 407.52 | 475.39 | 502.54 | Market |
| 16 | AMDAMDx | Long | 559.82 | 499.81 | 649.84 | 709.85 | Market, add on a pullback |
| 17 | AAPLAPLx | Long | 336.13 | 317.87 | 363.52 | 381.78 | Market |
| 18 | GOOGLGGLx | Long | 349.54 | 328.55 | 381.03 | 402.03 | Market |
| 19 | XOMXOMx | Long | 163.54 | 154.29 | 177.41 | 186.66 | Market, small size |
| 20 | CVXCHVx | Long | 209.51 | 198.26 | 226.38 | 237.63 | Market, small size |
| 21 | CopperCOPPERx | Long | 6.723 | 6.516 | 7.034 | 7.24 | Market |
| 22 | WheatWHTx | Long | 725.25 | 676.61 | 798.21 | 846.85 | Market |
| 23 | USDCADUSDCADx | Long | 1.4008 | 1.392 | 1.414 | 1.4228 | Market |
| 24 | EURAUDEURAUDx | Short | 1.6108 | 1.6305 | 1.5813 | 1.5616 | Market |
| 25 | USDSGDUSDSGDx | Short | 1.2759 | 1.2813 | 1.2678 | 1.2624 | Market |
| 26 | CAC 40FR_CFDx | Short | 8,065 | 8,260 | 7,773 | 7,578 | Market, small size |
| 27 | PalladiumXPDx | Short | 1,318 | 1,392.93 | 1,205.6 | 1,130.67 | Market |
| 28 | Natural GasNGASx | Short | 2.883 | 3.03 | 2.663 | 2.516 | Market, small size |
- 15. TSM — long. At $434.67 and today's strongest setup: the trend is up, price is slightly above its one-month average, and it has outperformed the index by 4.6% over the past month. The Taiwan stock market is at a three-month high today, and ahead of Thursday's summit the US has proposed a new AI safety mechanism to China. Action: long, with a second entry if 443 breaks; target 475. Invalidation: below 407.
- 16. AMD — long. At $559.82 after a 2.7% rise on Friday, with a monthly gain of 20%; it has outperformed the index by 19% over the past month and is 4% from its one-year high. Action: long, target 650. Invalidation: below 500; the stock is up 15% in two weeks, so adding on a pullback is better.
- 17. AAPL — long. At $336.13 and 2.4% below its one-year high; the trend is up on every timeframe and it has outperformed the index by 8% over the past month. Action: long, with a second entry if 338.49 breaks; target 363. Invalidation: below 318.
- 18. GOOGL — long. At $349.54 with the trend up; price is just above its one-month average and rose 0.6% on Friday. Within large-cap technology, money is moving from Meta and Microsoft to Alphabet. Action: long, target 381. Invalidation: below 328.5.
- 19. XOM — long. At $163.54, with price exactly on its one-month average and the trend up. But oil has fallen below $100, which weakens the energy thesis we have carried for two weeks; on the other hand, banks warn that global inventories could be exhausted in 5–10 weeks. Action: long with small size, target 177. Invalidation: below 154, or Brent falling below 95.
- 20. CVX — long. At $209.51 after a 1% dip on Friday; the trend is up and price is on its average. Same thesis as Exxon, and the same risk: oil is below 100. Action: long with small size, target 226. Invalidation: below 198.
- 21. Copper — long. Up to $6.72 after a 1.6% rise on Friday, approaching record territory again; up 3.9% on the week. The positive tone in US–China talks is supporting industrial metals. Action: long, with a second entry if 6.81 breaks; target 7.03. Invalidation: below 6.52.
- 22. Wheat — long. At 725.25 cents and in an uptrend; price is at its one-month average. Action: long, target 798. Invalidation: below 677.
- 23. USDCAD — long. Up to 1.4008 with the trend up; with oil below $100 the Canadian dollar weakens, and the Fed's hawkish stance also supports the US dollar. Action: long, target 1.4140. Invalidation: below 1.3920.
- 24. EURAUD — short. At 1.6108 with the trend down on every timeframe: the euro is weak on European political risk, and the Australian dollar is strong on expectations of two rate hikes. Action: short, target 1.5813. Invalidation: above 1.6305.
- 25. USDSGD — short. At 1.2759 with the trend down; the yuan is at a 3.5-year high and the People's Bank of China is more willing to let it strengthen ahead of the summit, which is spreading to other Asian currencies. Action: short, target 1.2678. Invalidation: above 1.2813.
- 26. CAC 40 — short. At 8,065 and Europe's weakest index: down 1.5% on Friday and 4.6% over the past month. France's borrowing costs over Germany's are at the widest spread since the euro crisis. Action: short, target 7,773. Invalidation: above 8,260; indicators are close to oversold, so the size is small.
- 27. Palladium — short. At $1,318 with the trend down on every timeframe; the only name in the metals group in a downtrend. Action: short, target 1,206. Invalidation: above 1,393.
- 28. Natural Gas — short. At $2.883, with price 63% below its one-year high; with oil falling, there is no upside support for natural gas, which was already weak. Action: short, target 2.66. Invalidation: above 3.03; the heating season is approaching, so the size is small.
No position today
Instruments from the list that carry no trade today, with the reason.
- AVAX — No position, overbought. Jumped to 11.33: up 18% today and 55% on the week. But momentum is deep in overbought territory (84) and price is far above its normal range; buying from this level would be chasing. Action: no position; on a pullback, the 9.50 area will be assessed.
- USDJPY — No position, intervention risk. At 157.05, with the yen down 2% last week. Japanese officials carried out a rate check on Friday, which usually precedes intervention; Japan is on holiday until Wednesday, and low liquidity amplifies the impact of any intervention. Risk: it runs both ways. Action: no position; if intervention comes, it will be reassessed the following day.
What is on this week
A week weighted towards diplomacy, with low liquidity. At the UN General Assembly, Trump said he is open to meeting Iran's president, and Iran has passed its negotiating terms to mediators.
The Trump–Xi summit is in Washington on Thursday; the US has proposed a new AI safety mechanism, and China is showing goodwill by allowing the yuan to strengthen. The Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian central banks meet the same day, and all are expected to hold. Japan is on holiday until Wednesday.
Two big changes
The first is oil: it has fallen for four days and WTI is below $100. Saudi exports recovered to above 4 million barrels a day in September, from 2.4 million in August. But CBA warns that global inventories could be exhausted in 5–10 weeks; two weeks ago that estimate was 15–20 weeks. So the price is falling, but the risk has not gone away.
The second is Bitcoin: for the first time in 45 weeks it closed above its 50-week average; historically, of 13 similar breakouts, 11 were not followed by a new low.
What changed
- XOM and CVX moved from Core to Tactical and down to small size; oil falling below 100 has weakened the energy thesis.
- USDCAD long added in their place: the Canadian dollar weakens as oil falls.
- ETH, SOL and XRP now depend on confirmation of a breakout.
- AVAX no position after the 55% jump.
- GBPUSD turned to the short side.
- USDJPY no position because of intervention risk.
- GOOGL is back on the list.
Where the weight is
20 long, 7 short, 2 with no position. The centre of the long side is technology: Nvidia, TSMC, AMD, Apple, Alphabet and the Nasdaq. This cluster is tied directly to Thursday's summit; if tension emerges there, the five are hit together, and total size needs to be set accordingly. The short side is in Europe (the euro, sterling, France) and in weak commodities (palladium, natural gas).
Three levels
- Bitcoin 78,000: the zone of the 50-week average and concentrated leverage; if the weekly close holds there, the breakout is confirmed.
- Brent $100: staying below it changes the inflation narrative and supports the equity rally.
- EURUSD 1.1456: last week's low; European political risk could bring a break.
Balance
Seven short ideas balance the technology-heavy long side. The euro, sterling and France shorts gain if political risk in Europe rises; the EURAUD and Singapore dollar shorts carry different risks on the dollar and Asian currency side; palladium and natural gas sit on the commodity side. If the summit brings a negative surprise, the European shorts and the USDCAD long protect the list.
Considered, not taken
Every idea that reached the shortlist and was left out, with the reason.
| Instrument | Side | Why it was not taken |
|---|---|---|
| AAVE, DASH, ALGO, NEO | Long | Altcoins are running on Bitcoin's breakout, but the crypto side is already four ideas; overbought readings are widespread among second-tier coins. |
| META | Long | Outperformed the index by 22% over the past month but fell 2.4% on Friday; the technology side is already five positions. |
| TSLA | Long | The trend is mixed and we have given ideas in both directions over the past two weeks; we are waiting, for consistency. |
| GBPCHF, AUDCAD | Long | No new positions were opened in the crosses; the currency side is limited to the core and three additional ideas. |
| Brent, WTI | Short | Oil has fallen below 100, but banks warn that inventories could be exhausted quickly; the risk runs both ways, so there is no direct position. |
| XMR | Long | Strong, up 13% on the week and 42% on the month; an open idea from last week, not renewed. |
| IBEX 35 | Long | Fell 1.6% on Friday and is under European political risk; the DAX trigger long represents Europe. |
| Cocoa | Long | Gave back the whole August rally with a 10% weekly loss; the trend is mixed. |
| USDTRY | Long | The rate is at a new high at 48.80; technical breakouts do not work on a managed rate. |
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