Trading Signals - 22 September 2026

26 trade ideas for 22 September 2026: 19 long and 7 short. Entry, stop and two targets are given for each, with the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.

Today's framework

The AI rally is back: the Nasdaq is at a record and Bitcoin is at an eight-month high, but a narrow group is carrying the advance.

Today the Fed's Williams and Barkin speak, Xi is in Washington tomorrow, and the summit is on Thursday.

Core ideas

The core list is 14 positions: cryptocurrencies 4, indices 4, stocks 1, currencies 3, commodities 2. “Layer” is how firmly the idea is held — Core is a standing position, Tactical is held for the current setup only, and Trigger means nothing is done until the stated condition is met.

• 1. BTC — long. At 85,568; yesterday it broke the 82,000 resistance and reached an eight-month high at 87,395. In 24 hours, $844m of short positions were force-closed and $999m flowed into funds. The average cost of fund investors is 82,225, and for the first time in a long while this group is in profit, which turns that level into support. But leverage is growing faster than spot buying; 84,000 is the test area. Action: long on a pullback to 84,000, targets 87,750 and 90,000. Invalidation: below 81,500.
• 2. ETH — long. At 2,738 after breaking three-week resistance and reaching 2,807. Money is flowing into funds alongside Bitcoin. Action: long in small size, target 2,970. Invalidation: below 2,580.
• 3. SOL — long. At 117.14 and today's strongest setup: up 14% on the week, 6% ahead of Bitcoin over the past month, and yesterday's breakout is confirmed. The one-month high at 119.99 sits just above. Action: long, target 131. Invalidation: below 107.65.
• 4. XRP — long. Up to 1.5163 after a 6% rise yesterday that broke 1.4961, a level unbroken for two weeks; yesterday's trigger fired. The one-month high at 1.5743 is the next resistance. Action: long, target 1.67. Invalidation: below 1.414.
• 5. S&P 500 — long. At 7,765; yesterday it rose 1.5%, its best day since August, and moved close to the 7,817 high. Muse, Meta's AI assistant, overtaking ChatGPT on the App Store sparked the technology rally. But breadth is narrow: yesterday more stocks made 52-week lows than highs, a picture last seen in December 1999. Action: long in small size, target 7,955. Invalidation: below 7,637.
• 6. Nasdaq 100 — long. At a record 30,482 after rising 2.8% yesterday, up 4.7% on the week; the chip index rose for a fifth day and AMD passed $1 trillion in value. Futures are flat today and profit-taking can be expected. Action: long in small size, target 31,486. Invalidation: below 29,813.
• 7. DAX — long. At 25,575 after a 1.1% recovery yesterday, but the 25,700 trigger has not been reached yet; the cost of insuring French debt is at its highest since March 2020, and European political risk persists. Action: long on a daily close above 25,700. Invalidation: below 25,173.
• 8. FTSE 100 — long. At 10,739 after rising 0.75% yesterday and turning back into an uptrend, but the 10,820 trigger has not been reached; oil staying around 100 limits what the energy weighting adds. Action: long on a daily close above 10,820. Invalidation: below 10,586.
• 9. NVDA — long. At $227.38 after rising 2.3% yesterday, up 7.8% on the week; the one-month high at 234.50 is 3% away. Muse's success means more servers, and more servers mean more chips; Nvidia is the world's most valuable company, worth more than $5 trillion. Action: long, target 251.55. Invalidation: below 211.
• 10. EURUSD — short. At 1.1474 and the downtrend continues; the dollar is close to a seven-week high and the Fed is more hawkish than other central banks. French bonds are the worst performers among the major economies in 2026. Action: short, target 1.1255. Invalidation: above 1.1620.
• 11. GBPUSD — short. At 1.3382 and close to the one-month low; indicators are weak and the dollar is strong. Action: short in small size, target 1.3250. Invalidation: above 1.3470.
• 12. AUDUSD — long. At 0.7125, with the trend up and the stop very close; Bullock said upside inflation risks could materialise, and the market is pricing a rate hike next week. Action: long in small size, target 0.7202. Invalidation: below 0.7073.
• 13. Gold — long. At 4,359 and down 4.7% on the month; the expectation that rates stay high for longer is weighing on it, and a fresh rise in oil would add to the pressure. The support area is 4,330. Action: long in small size on a pullback to 4,330, target 4,428. Invalidation: below 4,265.
• 14. Silver — long. At 65.79 and up 3.6% on the week; copper's record supports the industrial side, but the pressure on gold limits the precious-metal side. Action: long in small size, target 69.95. Invalidation: below 63.02.

Additional ideas

12 ideas outside the core list, taken on their own setups. They carry no layer marking.

• 15. TSM — long. At $445.14 after rising 2.4% yesterday, pressing against the one-month high at 445.72; the Taiwan stock market set a record yesterday. Action: long, target 486. Invalidation: below 418.
• 16. AAPL — long. At $338.98 and 1.5% short of its one-year high; the one-month high at 339.64 sits just above. It has outperformed the index by 8% over the past month. Action: long, with a second entry if 339.64 breaks; target 366. Invalidation: below 321.
• 17. GOOGL — long. At $354.97 after rising 1.6% yesterday, with the trend up; Muse has intensified the race between AI assistants, and Alphabet is a natural participant in that race. Action: long, target 386. Invalidation: below 334.
• 18. AMZN — long. At $258.45, with price pulled back to its one-month average and the trend up; it is the cloud-infrastructure name that has lagged in the AI rally. Action: long, target 281. Invalidation: below 243.
• 19. Copper — long. At a record $6.81 after rising 1.9% yesterday, up 7.6% on the week; AI infrastructure and US–China optimism are carrying industrial metals. There is no prior resistance overhead. Action: long, target 7.13. Invalidation: below 6.60.
• 20. Wheat — long. At 727 cents and in an uptrend; price is just above its one-month average. Action: long, target 799. Invalidation: below 679.
• 21. USDCAD — long. Up to 1.4028 with the trend up; the dollar is strong, oil is stuck around 100 and the Canadian dollar is finding no support. Action: long, target 1.4190. Invalidation: below 1.3920.
• 22. EURAUD — short. At 1.6106 with the trend down on every timeframe: the euro is weak on European political risk, and a rate hike in Australia is priced for next week. Action: short, target 1.5808. Invalidation: above 1.6305.
• 23. USDSGD — short. At 1.2753 with the trend down; the yuan is strong and Asian currencies are finding support ahead of the summit. Action: short, target 1.2676. Invalidation: above 1.2805.
• 24. CAC 40 — short. At 8,139 and still Europe's weakest index; it recovered 0.9% yesterday but is down 4% over the past month. The cost of insuring French debt is at its highest since March 2020. Action: short in small size, target 7,957. Invalidation: above 8,260.
• 25. Palladium — short. At $1,304 with the trend down on every timeframe; it is the only name in the metals group in a downtrend. Action: short, target 1,199. Invalidation: above 1,374.
• 26. Natural Gas — short. At $2.845 and the trend has turned down; price is 64% below its one-year high. Action: short, target 2.53. Invalidation: above 3.06; the heating season is approaching, so the size is small.

No position today

Instruments from the list that carry no trade today, with the reason.

• AVAX — No position, overbought. Down to 10.74 after a 5.8% fall yesterday, but still up 42% on the week; momentum is still overbought (83). The pullback we were waiting for has started but is not yet enough. Action: no position; the 9.50 area is being watched.
• USDJPY — No position, intervention risk. At 157.47, with the yen at a three-week low; the US–Japan rate gap is about 275 basis points and UBP expects 160 by the end of the year. But Japan is on holiday and a rate check was carried out on Friday; the risk of intervention is high. Action: no position; if there is no intervention and a move towards 160 begins, it will be reviewed tomorrow.

What happened yesterday

The AI trade is back. Muse, Meta's assistant that can act on its own on the user's behalf, overtook ChatGPT on the App Store in two weeks; Meta rose 11.4% and AMD 10%, taking AMD past $1 trillion in value. The Nasdaq set its first record since June and the S&P had its best day since August. Bitcoin broke the 82,000 resistance and reached an eight-month high, with $999m flowing into its funds in a single day.

What to watch

The rally's breadth is very narrow. Yesterday more stocks in the S&P 500 made 52-week lows than highs; with the index this close to a record and rising more than 1%, that picture was last seen in December 1999. In other words, a handful of large technology stocks are carrying the advance. The same is true in crypto: futures positions are growing faster than spot buying. That is why the index and Bitcoin ideas are either small size or tied to a pullback.

What changed

• Exxon and Chevron were not renewed: oil is trading on headlines around $100, and energy shares fell 3% yesterday. The view on oil is now carried by the USDCAD long.
• AMD and Meta are not on the new list: both are in overbought territory, so entering now would be chasing.
• Amazon comes in instead, the cloud name that has lagged in the AI rally.
• Bitcoin moved from a market long to a long on a pullback to 84,000.
• Gold is now also tied to a pullback, to 4,330.

This week

The Fed's Williams and Barkin speak today. Musalem argued yesterday for acting early; if both strike the same tone, the probability of an October hike rises above 60%, and the dollar and short-term rates move higher.

Xi is in Washington tomorrow for the first time in more than a decade, and the summit is on Thursday; AI safety, Iran, tariffs and rare earth elements are on the agenda. Crypto options expire on Friday.

Three levels

• Bitcoin 84,000: the area that profit-taking and a pullback would test; below it sits the fund investors' cost at 82,225.
• S&P 500 7,817: the one-month high; a break would mean a record.
• Brent $100: heads towards 95 if the US–Iran talks become concrete, and towards 105 if there is a new disruption.

Balance

There are seven short ideas: the euro, sterling and France on the European side, EURAUD and the Singapore dollar on the currency side, and palladium and natural gas in commodities. There is no short idea on the technology side because the trend is clear; but because breadth is narrow, most of the long ideas are small size.

This page is for general information only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, and it does not take account of any recipient's objectives, financial situation or needs. Levels and commentary reflect a view at a point in time and may change without notice. Past performance does not indicate future results. Trading in leveraged products including Forex, CFDs and cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors; you may lose more than your initial investment.