Trading Signals - 23 September 2026

25 trade ideas for 23 September 2026: 19 long and 6 short. Entry, stop and two targets are given for each, with the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.

Today's framework

Oil has fallen for six days and Iran has set out its conditions for Hormuz. The Nasdaq set another record, but banks were sold and the yield curve is at its flattest since March 2025.

Today brings the flash PMI data, and Pezeshkian speaks at the UN.

Core ideas

The core list is 14 positions: cryptocurrencies 4, indices 4, stocks 1, currencies 3, commodities 2. “Layer” is how firmly the idea is held — Core is a standing position, Tactical is held for the current setup only, and Trigger means nothing is done until the stated condition is met.

• 1. BTC — long. At 86,756 and up 14.7% on the week; on course for its first three-month winning streak since 2012. ETFs took in about $1 billion yesterday, but the move was started on the derivatives side: $262 million of short positions were liquidated in one hour. Above, 87,600 is the breakout threshold; below, 84,000 is the pullback zone. Action: long, adding on a break of 87,600; target 91,000. Invalidation: a close below 84,000.
• 2. ETH — long. At 2,770 and up 15.5% on the week; after breaking three-week resistance it has pushed up against the 2,807 high. It is moving with Bitcoin and has no separate story of its own. Action: long, target 2,960. Invalidation: below 2,620.
• 3. SOL — long. At 119.10 and pressing against the one-month high at 119.99; up 23% on the week, the strongest of the majors. There is a concrete development on the technical side: an upgrade that cuts the network's transaction finality time from 13 seconds to 0.15 seconds has moved to testnet, which brings it closer to the card networks for payments. Action: long, adding on a break of 119.99; target 133. Invalidation: below 110.
• 4. XRP — long. Up to 1.6208; yesterday it was the strongest name in crypto with a 7% gain, and it is up 26% on the week. Yesterday's long worked: price broke the 1.5743 resistance and reached the one-month high. Action: long maintained, target 1.78. Invalidation: below 1.50; momentum is nearing overbought, and a new entry can wait for a pullback.
• 5. S&P 500 — long. At 7,765 and 0.7% below its record, but it closed slightly lower yesterday. The picture is split: while the Nasdaq set a new record, the Dow fell 0.4% and the bank index lost 3%. The yield curve is at its flattest since March 2025, a sign that the market has started to price high rates slowing the economy. Action: long with small size, target 7,955. Invalidation: below 7,637.
• 6. Nasdaq 100 — long. At a record 30,732 and up 5.5% on the week; leadership has moved to memory and chip equipment, with ASML up 11% on the week. SoftBank's $10 billion bond issue drew more than $20 billion of demand, which shows that the AI story is also getting support from the credit side. Action: long with small size, target 31,700. Invalidation: below 29,900.
• 7. DAX — long. At 25,579, and the 25,700 trigger has not come for a second day; European futures are up 0.4% today and the flash PMI data are released today. Action: long if there is a daily close above 25,700. Invalidation: below 25,173.
• 8. FTSE 100 — long. At 10,708 after a 0.3% fall yesterday, and its trend has turned mixed; oil has fallen for six days and the energy weighting is not carrying the index. Action: long if there is a daily close above 10,820, otherwise no position. Invalidation: below 10,586.
• 9. NVDA — long. At $228.87, with the one-month high at 234.50 just 2.5% away; it rose 0.7% yesterday. Although leadership in chips has moved to ASML and the memory shares, the demand story is intact. Action: long, target 253. Invalidation: below 213.
• 10. EURUSD — short. At 1.1427, its weakest level since late July; the dollar is at 100.72, a two-month high. But the indicators are nearing oversold (33), and the European PMI data are out today. Action: short maintained but with small size, target 1.1280. Invalidation: above 1.1560.
• 11. GBPUSD — short. At 1.3313, a two-month low, and the indicators are weak; the UK PMI is released today. Action: short with small size, target 1.3190. Invalidation: above 1.3420.
• 12. AUDUSD — long. At 0.7103 after a 0.2% fall yesterday; the trend has turned mixed. A rate hike in Australia is priced for next week, and the Australian dollar has reached parity with the Canadian dollar for the first time in more than eight years, so the relative strength continues. Action: long with small size, target 0.7190. Invalidation: below 0.7053.
• 13. Gold — long. At $4,372 and down 6.6% on the month; the expectation that rates will stay high for a long time continues to weigh. Yesterday's 4,330 entry level was not reached and price stayed flat. Action: long with small size on a pullback to 4,330, target 4,428. Invalidation: below 4,273.
• 14. Silver — long. At 66.84 after a 1.4% rise yesterday; with copper nearing a record, the industrial leg is supportive, but the rate pressure on gold limits the precious-metal side. Action: long with small size, target 70.50. Invalidation: below 63.02.

Additional ideas

11 ideas outside the core list, taken on their own setups. They carry no layer marking.

• 15. ASML — long. At $1,747.90 after a 2.1% rise yesterday, and with an 11% weekly gain it has become the leader of the chip group; the stock is 11% above the level at which we gave a short idea two weeks ago. Leadership has moved to the equipment side. Action: long, target 1,900. Invalidation: below 1,650.
• 16. TSM — long. At $452 after a 1.5% rise yesterday that broke the one-month high at 445.72; the Taiwan stock market is very close to a record, and Samsung and the memory side are rising in Asia. Action: long, target 486. Invalidation: below 418.
• 17. AMD — long. At $623.77 and up 26.4% on the week; it also rose 1.3% yesterday, breaking the one-month high. Momentum is overbought, so we are lowering its layer, but the trend is clear. Action: long with small size, adding on a pullback; target 695. Invalidation: below 576.
• 18. AAPL — long. At $339.75, having closed just above the one-month high at 339.64; it is 1.3% short of its one-year high. Action: long, target 366. Invalidation: below 321.
• 19. AAVE — long. At $150.99 and today's strongest setup: it broke its 60-day high and price has moved above its normal range. In the broad crypto rally, it is the leader on the decentralised finance side. Action: long with small size, target 174. Invalidation: below 135; chasing a breakout is risky, so the size is kept small.
• 20. Copper — long. At $6.814 and close to a record; with an 18% gain since the start of the year, it is the clearest expression of AI infrastructure on the commodity side. Action: long, target 7.13. Invalidation: below 6.60.
• 21. USDCAD — long. At 1.4084 and the trend is up; oil has fallen for six days and the Canadian dollar is directly affected, sitting at its weakest in eight years against the Australian dollar. Yesterday's long is working. Action: long maintained, target 1.4240. Invalidation: below 1.3960.
• 22. EURAUD — short. At 1.6093 and the trend is down on every timeframe; the euro is at its weakest since late July, and a rate hike is priced in Australia. Action: short, target 1.5800. Invalidation: above 1.6299.
• 23. USDSGD — short. At 1.2762; the downtrend continues, but price has moved above its one-month average, and Asian currencies are under pressure as the dollar strengthens. Action: short with small size, target 1.2676. Invalidation: above 1.2805.
• 24. CAC 40 — short. At 8,155 and still Europe's weakest index; down 3.9% over the past month, with a mixed trend. Pressure from France's borrowing costs continues. Action: short with small size, target 7,980. Invalidation: above 8,260.
• 25. Palladium — short. At $1,307 and the trend is down on every timeframe; it is the only name in the metals group in a downtrend. It recovered 1.1% yesterday, but the structure has not changed. Action: short, target 1,199. Invalidation: above 1,374.

No position today

Instruments from the list that carry no trade today, with the reason.

• AVAX — No position, overbought. At 11.27 and up 55% on the week; with momentum at 83 it is still deep in overbought territory. The pullback we have waited two days for did not come; price rose instead. Action: no position; waiting for it to calm down is the better course than chasing from this level.
• USDJPY — No position, intervention risk. At 157.66 and approaching 160. The Bank of Japan's hike did not narrow the rate gap, because the Fed had raised by the same amount two days earlier. Japan is on holiday, liquidity is thin and, according to analysts, this is a suitable time for intervention; moreover, officials no longer give advance warning. Action: no position, the risk runs both ways.
• Natural Gas — Short idea closed, thesis broken. Jumped to $3.169, up 6.9% yesterday and 14.3% on the month; pre-winter supply tightness in Europe and the possibility of a US ban on diesel exports pushed the price higher. The short idea we have carried for two weeks is broken and the thesis no longer holds. Action: we are closing the short idea; the direction has turned up.

What happened yesterday

Two developments. The first is oil: Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline that was shut on 11 September, and Iran, through Qatari mediation, set out its conditions for Hormuz. According to an Iranian official, the strait could open within a week if the US eases the pressure. Brent has fallen for six days, its longest run in a year.

The second is the split on the equity side: the Nasdaq set another record, but the Dow fell and the bank index lost 3%.

The main warning

The yield curve is at its flattest since March 2025: the gap between the 2-year and 10-year yields has narrowed to 18 basis points, from 55 a month ago. Because banks borrow short and lend long, their profits shrink as this gap narrows; yesterday's 3% sell-off in banks came from this.

More importantly, the market has started to price high rates slowing the economy. This signal needs watching while the equity rally continues.

What changed

• Natural Gas short idea closed: price jumped 6.9% yesterday, pre-winter supply tightness in Europe and the possibility of a US ban on diesel exports pushed it higher, and the thesis broke.
• ASML was the stock we gave a short idea on two weeks ago; today it is on the long side, because chip leadership has moved to equipment and the stock gained 11% on the week.
• AAVE added; today's strongest setup.
• Wheat not renewed; it fell 1.2% yesterday and the trend weakened.

What is on today

Flash PMI data for Europe, the UK and the US; weak data would pull back the pricing of an October Fed hike and test the dollar's two-month high. Barr speaks for the Fed and Lane for the ECB.

Xi arrives in Washington, with the summit tomorrow. Pezeshkian will speak at the UN General Assembly; for oil, this is the biggest headline risk of the day.

Three levels

• Brent $100: now resistance after the six-day fall; a positive diplomatic signal takes it to 95, threatening language to 102.
• US 10-year 5.00%: staying below it is the most important support for the equity rally.
• Bitcoin 87,600 / 84,000: the breakout threshold above, the pullback zone below.

Balance

There are six short ideas: the euro, sterling and France on the European side, EURAUD and the Singapore dollar on the currency side, and palladium in commodities. With natural gas closed, no short remains on the energy side; the USDCAD long carries the fall in oil.

The technology weighting is high, but most of the ideas are small size, because the rally's base is still narrow.

Considered, not taken

Every idea that reached the shortlist and was left out, with the reason.

This page is for general information only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, and it does not take account of any recipient's objectives, financial situation or needs. Levels and commentary reflect a view at a point in time and may change without notice. Past performance does not indicate future results. Trading in leveraged products including Forex, CFDs and cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors; you may lose more than your initial investment.