22 trade ideas for 24 September 2026: 18 long and 4 short. Entry, stop and two targets are given for each, with the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.
Today's framework
There has been a regime change in the bond market: for the first time since 2007, the five-year yield has moved above 5%, and the 10-year is at 5.11%. This shifts the ground under the week's equity rally, and it hits assets that pay no yield hardest.
Core ideas
The core list is 9 positions: cryptocurrencies 3, indices 4, stocks 1, currencies 1.
| No | Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Entry condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptocurrencies | |||||||
| 1 | BTCBTCUSDx | Long | 80,000 | 78,000 | 87,000 | 89,000 | On a pullback to 80,000, small size |
| 2 | ETHETHUSDx | Long | 2,600 | 2,550 | 2,750 | 2,800 | On a pullback to 2,600, small size |
| 3 | SOLSOLx | Long | 115.17 | 108 | 128 | 133 | Market, small size |
| Indices | |||||||
| 4 | S&P 500USSP_CFDx | Long | 7,706.03 | 7,600 | 7,865 | 7,970 | Market, small size |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100USTech_CFDx | Long | 30,470 | 29,800 | 31,475 | 32,145 | Market, small size |
| 6 | DAXEU_CFDx | Long | 25,700 | 25,173 | 26,491 | 27,018 | Daily close above 25,700 |
| 7 | FTSE 100UK1x | Long | 10,820 | 10,586 | 11,171 | 11,405 | Daily close above 10,820 |
| Stocks | |||||||
| 8 | NVDANVDx | Long | 225.51 | 210.16 | 248.54 | 263.89 | Market |
| Currencies | |||||||
| 9 | GBPUSDGBPUSDx | Short | 1.324 | 1.336 | 1.306 | 1.294 | Market, small size |
- 1. BTC — long. Down to 84,158 after a 2.8% fall yesterday, trading below support at 84,000. The cause is on the bond side: the 10-year yield rose 15 basis points in a day to 5.11%, and assets that pay no yield were the first to be hit. Even so, funds took in money for a fifth consecutive day. There is a $14bn options expiry on Friday, which will amplify the move. Action: no new long; a small-size long on a pullback to the 80,000 area, target 87,000. Invalidation: a close below 78,000, which is the liquidation zone.
- 2. ETH — long. At 2,688 after a 2.7% fall yesterday; it is moving with Bitcoin and has no story of its own. It turned back from resistance at 2,807. Action: wait, with a small-size long around 2,600. Invalidation: below 2,550.
- 3. SOL — long. At 115.17, down 2.8% yesterday, but still 6.5% ahead of Bitcoin over the past month; the leader in relative strength within crypto. Action: small-size long, target 128. Invalidation: below 108.
- 4. S&P 500 — long. At 7,706, down 0.8% yesterday. The bond sell-off is shifting the ground under the equity rally: for the first time since 2007 the five-year yield has moved above 5%, and the flash PMI came in at its strongest in five years, which lifted the probability of an October Fed hike to 70%. According to a JPMorgan survey, the breaking point for equities may have shifted to the 5.5–6.0% range, so there is room left but it is shrinking. Action: small-size long, target 7,860. Invalidation: below 7,600.
- 5. Nasdaq 100 — long. At 30,470 after a flat close yesterday; memory and equipment names remain strong, with ASML up 2%. It has been the most resilient US index to the bond sell-off. Action: small-size long, target 31,400. Invalidation: below 29,800.
- 6. DAX — long. At 25,411, and the 25,700 trigger has not come for a third day; European indices are down 2.7% over the past month. German Ifo data is out today. Action: long on a daily close above 25,700. Invalidation: below 25,173.
- 7. FTSE 100 — long. At 10,705 with a mixed trend; two-way moves in oil make its energy weighting an uncertain factor. Action: long on a daily close above 10,820, otherwise no position. Invalidation: below 10,586.
- 8. NVDA — long. At $225.51, down 1.5% yesterday, but one of the strongest setups on the list: two signals are positive at once and it is 7.5% ahead of the index over the past month. Price is just above its one-month average. Action: long, target 248. Invalidation: below 210.
- 9. GBPUSD — short. At 1.3240 and at a two-month low; indicators are close to oversold at 33. UK consumer confidence is released today. Action: small-size short, target 1.3130. Invalidation: above 1.3360.
Additional ideas
13 ideas outside the core list, taken on their own setups.
| No | Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Entry condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | ASMLASMx | Long | 1,744.61 | 1,650 | 1,886.53 | 1,981.45 | Market |
| 11 | TSMTSMx | Long | 446.57 | 417.96 | 489.49 | 518.1 | Market |
| 12 | AMDAMDx | Long | 614.61 | 551.82 | 708.8 | 771.59 | Market, small size |
| 13 | AAPLAPLx | Long | 337.02 | 320 | 362.55 | 379.57 | Market |
| 14 | CVXCHVx | Long | 205.51 | 196.46 | 219.08 | 228.13 | Market |
| 15 | XOMXOMx | Long | 161.23 | 153 | 173.58 | 181.81 | Market, small size |
| 16 | BrentBRENTx | Long | 98.15 | 90.9 | 108.03 | 116.28 | Market, small size |
| 17 | CopperCOPPERx | Long | 6.765 | 6.55 | 7.088 | 7.303 | Market |
| 18 | Natural GasNGASx | Long | 3.206 | 3.02 | 3.485 | 3.671 | Market, small size |
| 19 | USDCADUSDCADx | Long | 1.4102 | 1.398 | 1.4285 | 1.4407 | Market |
| 20 | EURAUDEURAUDx | Short | 1.6176 | 1.628 | 1.602 | 1.5916 | Market, small size |
| 21 | CAC 40FR_CFDx | Short | 8,123.41 | 8,260 | 7,918 | 7,781 | Market, small size |
| 22 | PalladiumXPDx | Short | 1,278 | 1,345 | 1,177 | 1,110 | Market |
- 10. ASML — long. At $1,744.61 after a 2% rise yesterday that set it apart in a falling market; up 9.6% on the week, and chip leadership stays with the equipment side. Action: long, target 1,890. Invalidation: below 1,650.
- 11. TSM — long. At $446.57, down 1.2% yesterday, but the trend is up and it is 8.4% ahead of the index over the past month. Action: long, target 486. Invalidation: below 418.
- 12. AMD — long. At $614.61, down 1.5% yesterday, but 34% ahead of the index over the past month; it remains the strongest name in the chip group, with a weekly gain of 20%. Action: small-size long, target 709. Invalidation: below 552.
- 13. AAPL — long. At $337.02 after a 0.8% fall yesterday; the trend is up on every timeframe and price is 2.4% below its one-year high. As a cash-generating company it has a defensive quality in a high-rate environment. Action: long, target 366. Invalidation: below 320.
- 14. CVX — long. At $205.51, up 0.9% yesterday, with price just below its one-month average; the stop is close, so the risk is small. Action: long, target 219. Invalidation: below 196.
- 15. XOM — long. At $161.23 after a 1.9% rise yesterday, on the winning side in a falling market; Brent came close to $104 on Wednesday, and Iran is not backing down on its conditions. Action: small-size long, target 176. Invalidation: below 153; oil carries two-way headline risk.
- 16. Brent — long. At $98.15 after a 4.8% fall yesterday, having come close to 104 on Wednesday; two-way headline risk is very high. Iran says it is open to diplomacy but is not backing down on its Hormuz conditions, and the diesel-ban news moved the price 5% on a single headline. Action: small-size long, target 108. Invalidation: a close below 95.
- 17. Copper — long. At $6.765 after a 1.3% rise yesterday; the trend is up on every timeframe and it is 1% from its record. Demand from AI infrastructure works independently of rates. Action: long, target 7.07. Invalidation: below 6.55.
- 18. Natural Gas — long. Up to $3.206 after a 6.1% rise yesterday, with a monthly gain of 15.2%; pre-winter supply tightness in Europe and the debate over a diesel ban are carrying this leg of the energy complex. Closing the short idea yesterday was the right call. Action: small-size long, target 3.44. Invalidation: below 3.02.
- 19. USDCAD — long. At 1.4102 with the trend up; the dollar is at a two-month high and the Canadian dollar is getting no support from the volatility in oil. Action: the long continues, target 1.4240. Invalidation: below 1.3980.
- 20. EURAUD — short. At 1.6176 after a 0.5% rise yesterday; the trend is still down, but the Australian dollar lost more than the euro in yesterday's sell-off. Action: small-size short, target 1.5950. Invalidation: above 1.6280.
- 21. CAC 40 — short. At 8,123 and still the weakest index in Europe; down 3.9% over the past month, with weak indicators. Action: small-size short, target 7,960. Invalidation: above 8,260.
- 22. Palladium — short. At $1,278 with the trend down on every timeframe; 7.3% behind the index over the past month and the weakest of the metals group. Rate pressure is hitting all the precious metals, and palladium has no industrial demand either. Action: short, target 1,190. Invalidation: above 1,345.
No position today
Instruments from the list that carry no trade today, with the reason.
- XRP — No position, direction unclear. Down to 1.5091; its 6.2% fall yesterday was the worst among the majors, and it is now 9% off its one-month high. Being the most volatile name on the way up as well as on the way down raises the risk. Action: no position; the reaction around 1.45 is being watched. Invalidation: a close below 1.42.
- AVAX — No position, sharp fall. Down to 10.26; its 8.5% fall yesterday was the worst in crypto, and the pullback we had been expecting for two days came hard. The weekly gain is still 37%. Action: no position; wait until momentum calms.
- EURUSD — No new short, both sides stretched. At 1.1384, with indicators at 31 on the edge of oversold; the dollar is at a two-month high of 101.11 and is itself overbought. Both sides are stretched. Action: no new short, and the existing ideas are kept; a close above 1.1560 would mean the direction is reassessed.
- USDJPY — No position, intervention risk. At 158.20. Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said yesterday that joint intervention with the US is an option on the table, and that halted a four-day fall in the yen. A move towards 160 would mean a second warning or direct intervention. Action: no position; the risk runs both ways.
- USDSGD — Short idea closed, dollar strong. At 1.2796 and pressing against its one-month high on dollar strength; the downtrend is under strain. Action: we are closing the short idea; it will not be reconsidered until support at 1.2627 breaks.
What happened overnight
The bond market has changed regime. For the first time since 2007, the US five-year yield has moved above 5%; a $70bn auction met weak demand and sold at the highest auction yield since 2006. The 10-year rose 15 basis points in a day to 5.11%, and the 30-year to 5.40%. On top of that, the US flash PMI was the strongest in five years, and the probability of an October Fed hike rose from 50% to 70% in a week. Japan's 10-year yield is also at its highest since 1996.
What it means
Rising yields hit two groups hardest: assets that pay no yield, and leveraged positions. That is why Bitcoin fell below 84,000 and gold and silver turned their trends down. According to JPMorgan's survey, the equity market's breaking point may have shifted to the 5.5–6.0% range, so there is still room for equities but it is shrinking. Most of today's long ideas are small size, and the crypto entries depend on a pullback.
Ideas closed
Five ideas were closed. Gold and silver: with yields moving above 5%, a non-yielding asset cannot be defended, and both have turned their trends down. The Australian dollar: yesterday's 1.1% fall broke the one-month low. The Singapore dollar short: the dollar is at a two-month high and the downtrend is under strain.
We are not opening a new euro short, because the euro is oversold and the dollar is overbought at the same time; the existing ideas are kept.
The idea that changed direction
Natural gas. We closed the short idea yesterday, and today it is on the long side: price has risen 13% in two days, and pre-winter supply tightness in Europe and the debate over a US ban on diesel exports are carrying this leg of the energy complex.
Brent is also back on the list, but in small size: Iran says it is open to diplomacy, yet it is not backing down on its Hormuz conditions, and price came close to 104 on Wednesday before falling 4.8% yesterday.
Three levels
- US 10-year at 5.11%: if the next auction also meets weak demand, the selling spreads to the middle of the curve.
- Bitcoin 80,000 / 78,000: the first target and the liquidation zone; Friday's $14bn options expiry will amplify the move.
- Brent 104 / 98: Wednesday's high and the low of the six-day decline; the band between them is being moved by headlines.
Balance
Four short ideas remain: sterling, EURAUD, France and palladium. The long side is concentrated in technology and energy. In a rising-yield scenario the palladium and France shorts work; on the oil side, the Brent and natural gas longs and the Canadian dollar short stand against each other, which is a deliberate balance.
Considered, not taken
Every idea that reached the shortlist and was left out, with the reason.
| Instrument | Side | Why it was not taken |
|---|---|---|
| DASH | Long | The highest-scoring setup on the list, with two signals positive at once; but it is a name we previously had a short idea on, and the crypto side is on the defensive today, so we did not enter. |
| TRX | Long | Crypto is already three ideas, all of them dependent on a pullback; a fourth coin was not added. |
| WTI | Long | The same thesis as Brent; one of the two is enough, and Brent is more liquid. |
| META | Long | Momentum is overbought at 77; it rose 1% yesterday, but the entry would be a chase. |
| GOOGL | Long | Its 3.8% fall yesterday was the worst in large-cap technology; the trend has turned mixed. |
| AMZN | Long | Down 2.2% yesterday with a mixed trend; the technology side is already four positions. |
| AAVE | Long | Down 6.8% yesterday; yesterday's long idea was closed at its stop and was not re-entered. |
| Wheat | Long | Moving sideways with weakening indicators; the idea was not renewed. |
| IBEX 35 | Long | Europe already has the DAX trigger long; a second European long was not added. |
| EURCHF, CADCHF | Long | The setup in the franc crosses is still in place, but the currency side was kept to three ideas. |
| USDTRY | Long | The rate is at a new high of 48.86; in a managed rate, technical breakouts do not work. |
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