Trading Signals - 25 September 2026

22 trade ideas for 25 September 2026: 20 long and 2 short. Entry, stop and two targets are given for each, with the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.

Today's framework

Friday 25 September 2026. The US 10-year yield is at a 19-year high: 5.2251%, 20 basis points in two days. Once the risk-free return settles above 5%, every asset has to defend its price against that threshold; today there is 14 billion dollars of crypto option expiry.

That is why there is no position in gold or silver today, sizes in crypto are small, and on the equity side the selection is concentrated in the artificial intelligence theme: that side is absorbing the rate pressure for now, while rate-sensitive industrials and consumer names are not. The Dow is closing its fourth week with a loss and the Nasdaq is 5.3% higher on the week; two separate pictures in the same market.

This week's subject

The bond market. The US 10-year yield rose 20 basis points in two days to 5.2251%, a 19-year high; the 30-year is at 5.5016%, the highest since 2004. A move like this was last seen in April last year, in the tariff shock, and this time there is no comparable trigger. The Treasury's buyback also fell short: of the 6 billion dollars planned, only 4 billion went through. The effect is concrete: the US mortgage rate is at 7.45%, the highest since April 2024.

Trade ideas

The line under each name is the instrument symbol. The entry condition says whether the idea is taken at the market or only once a stated level or confirmation is met.

• 1. BTC — long. At 84,228 after recovering from a three-session decline. The fall came from profit taking: the profit realised on the network during Monday's rally rose to its highest level since December 2025. Demand has held up against that: the funds took inflows for a sixth consecutive day and large wallets have accumulated 114 thousand bitcoin since July. Today's 14 billion dollar option expiry may raise volatility. Action: buy with small size, add on a close above 85,000; target 87,400. Invalidated if: A close below 83,000.
• 2. ETH — long. At 2,680 and flat; it is moving with bitcoin. The 2,807 resistance has not been cleared for three weeks. Action: buy with small size, target 2,800. Invalidated if: Below 2,560.
• 3. SOL — long. At 116.46, up 1.2% yesterday and 8.4% ahead of bitcoin over the past month; the relative strength leader in crypto. The network upgrade is expected to go live on the main network on Monday. Action: buy, target 130. Invalidated if: Below 107.
• 4. XRP — long. At 1.5302 and up 1.8% yesterday; the strongest of the majors with 18% on the week. Momentum is close to overbought, so the size is small. Action: buy with small size, target 1.66. Invalidated if: Below 1.44.
• 5. S&P 500 — long. At 7,704 and it closed flat yesterday; holding up despite the jump in yields is notable. But the Dow is closing its fourth week with a loss: the artificial intelligence theme is absorbing the rate pressure while rate-sensitive industrials and consumer names lag. Action: buy with small size, target 7,816. Invalidated if: Below 7,600.
• 6. Nasdaq 100 — long. At 30,479 and 5.3% higher on the week; it remains the index most resistant to yields. Akamai announced a seven-year, 11.6 billion dollar compute agreement with Anthropic and rose 20% after the close; demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure keeps turning into contracts. Action: buy with small size, target 31,200. Invalidated if: Below 29,800.
• 7. DAX — long. At 25,267 and the trigger has not come for a fourth day; European indices are closing the week lower. Action: buy if a daily close above 25,700 arrives, otherwise no position. Invalidated if: Below 25,164.
• 8. FTSE 100 — long. At 10,680 and the trend is mixed; the index is not benefiting while Brent rises in oil. Action: buy if a daily close above 10,820 arrives. Invalidated if: Below 10,586.
• 9. NVDA — long. At 224.58 dollars and among the strongest setups on the list: two signals are positive at the same time, the price is just above the past month's average and it is 5.2% ahead of the index over the past month. Action: buy, target 247. Invalidated if: Below 209.

Additional ideas

Ideas taken outside the core lists, in the order of the source list.

• 10. AMD — long. At 629.26 dollars, up 2.4% yesterday and 0.2% from its one-year high; it is 31% ahead of the index over the past month. Momentum is overbought, so the entry is not chased. Action: buy with small size, add on a pullback; target 709. Invalidated if: Below 552.
• 11. TSM — long. At 451.15 dollars, up 1% yesterday and pressing against the past month's high of 452.88; the trend is up in every time frame. Action: buy, add if 452.88 is broken; target 489. Invalidated if: Below 418.
• 12. ASML — long. At 1,722.50 dollars and down 1.3% yesterday; the price is just above the past month's average, the trend is up and the pullback creates an entry opportunity. Action: buy, target 1,900. Invalidated if: Below 1,589.
• 13. AAPL — long. At 335.92 dollars and 8% ahead of the index over the past month; the trend is up in every time frame. As a cash-generating company in a high-rate environment it carries a defensive quality. Action: buy, target 362. Invalidated if: Below 318.
• 14. CVX — long. At 205.65 dollars and the price is just below the past month's average; the stop is very close and the risk is small. Brent is above 105 dollars and the Houthi attacks continue. Action: buy, target 219. Invalidated if: Below 196.
• 15. XOM — long. At 162.14 dollars, up 0.6% yesterday and the trend is up; the same thesis as Chevron. Action: buy with small size, target 174. Invalidated if: Below 154.
• 16. Brent Crude — long. At 105.44 dollars and 0.6% higher on the week; the Houthis fired six ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabia and all were shot down. On the diplomatic side the United States and Iran are looking for a phased settlement: Tehran would open Hormuz and Washington would lift the blockade. The risk is high in both directions. Action: buy with small size, target 110. Invalidated if: A close below 98.
• 17. Natural Gas — long. At 3.284 dollars and the strongest leg of the energy complex with 13.2% on the week; but momentum is overbought at 73 and the price is pressing against the past month's high. Action: buy with small size, target 3.44. Invalidated if: Below 3.05.
• 18. Copper — long. At 6.756 dollars and the trend is up in every time frame; it is 1% from its record, and copper holding up while precious metals fall shows that industrial demand is working independently of rates. Action: buy, target 7.10. Invalidated if: Below 6.48.
• 19. USDCAD — long. At 1.4150 and the trend is up; the dollar is at its strongest level since the end of July, WTI lost 6.4% on the week and the Canadian dollar is directly affected by that. Action: buy, target 1.4290. Invalidated if: Below 1.4000.
• 20. EURCHF — long. At 0.9429 and the trend is up; the price has pulled back to just above the past month's average and the stop is close. The euro is weak against the dollar but holding against the franc, because the Swiss rate is at zero. Action: buy, target 0.9560. Invalidated if: Below 0.9342.
• 21. CAC 40 — short. At 8,081 and it remains the weakest in Europe; a 4.2% loss over the past month and the indicators are weak at 37. Action: sell with small size, target 7,920. Invalidated if: Above 8,230.
• 22. Palladium — short. At 1,263.50 dollars and the trend is down in every time frame; it is 8.3% behind the index over the past month and the weakest of the metals group. Action: sell, target 1,180. Invalidated if: Above 1,330.

Ideas closed

The EURAUD short is closed: the euro and the Australian dollar weakened together this week, the divergence between them stopped and the thesis lost its validity. We are not opening a new position in the sterling short, with the indicators oversold at 26; the existing ideas stand. There is no position in the Australian dollar or the euro either, as prices are stretched on both sides.

Ideas added

Natural gas is the strongest leg of the energy complex with 13.2% on the week and sits on the buy side with small size. EURCHF has entered the list: the euro is weak against the dollar but holding against the franc, because the Swiss rate is at zero and the stop is very close. The Brent idea continues but the risk is high in both directions: the Houthis fired six missiles at Saudi Arabia, while the United States and Iran are looking for a phased settlement.

Three levels

The US 10-year at 5.2251% against 5.50%: the lower bound of the break range in the JPMorgan survey is 5.50%, and while yields stay there equities, housing and emerging markets are under pressure. Bitcoin at 85,000 against 83,000: resistance and the first balance area, and today's 14 billion dollar expiry can enlarge the move. The Brent-WTI spread at 12.68 dollars: the widest since May, and if the diesel ban idea is shelved WTI closes it quickly.

Balance

Two short ideas remain: France and palladium. The buy side is concentrated in the artificial intelligence theme, energy and copper. There is no position in eight assets and that is deliberate: while yields are rising at this pace, waiting is more appropriate than taking a direction in currencies and precious metals.

Considered, not taken

Instruments that were reviewed for this list and left without a trade, with the reason.

This page is for general information only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, and it does not take account of any recipient's objectives, financial situation or needs. Levels and commentary reflect a view at a point in time and may change without notice. Past performance does not indicate future results. Trading in leveraged products including Forex, CFDs and cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors; you may lose more than your initial investment.