26 trade ideas for 29 September 2026: 23 long and 3 short. Entry, stop and two targets are given for each, with the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.
Today's framework
Tuesday 29 September 2026. The market is now trading on the daily direction of rates: the 10-year yield is at 5.274%, the highest since 2007, and equities gave in yesterday. Australia raised its rate to a 15-year high and signalled more; PCE comes tomorrow and the employment report on Friday.
That framing shapes the list. Most of the buy ideas are taken in small size, the franc crosses carry the rate theme directly, and Tesla has been added on the sell side.
What happened yesterday
Equities gave in to rates: the S&P fell 0.8%, the Nasdaq 1.1%, the Dow more than 300 points, and the VIX rose 8% to 16.1. The names most sensitive to rates were hit hardest, with Meta losing 4.8% and AMD 3.6%. The only thing that limited the loss was Nvidia adding 150 billion dollars to its buyback plan; the stock rose 1.7%. The 10-year yield is at 5.274%, the highest since 2007, and rose 50 basis points in September, the sharpest monthly selloff in two years.
Australia takes its turn
The central bank raised the rate unanimously yesterday to a 15-year high of 4.60% and said it would continue if needed; it is the fourth rise this year, 100 basis points in total. The decision text is formal confirmation of the energy and inflation chain described here for weeks: the conflict in the Middle East has widened and global energy prices are far higher than assumed. The currency could not rise because it had priced the increase in advance, and it is testing the 0.70 support.
The market is more hawkish than the Fed
Of the Fed's 18 members, 12 expected only one rise by the end of the year; the market expects two and is pricing three by the middle of next year. The probability of a rise at the October meeting is above 70%, against 57% a week ago. This divergence explains today's spread of positions: there is no position in six assets, most of the buy ideas are in small size and Tesla has been added on the sell side.
Trade ideas
The line under each name is the instrument symbol. The entry condition says whether the idea is taken at the market or only once a stated level or confirmation is met.
| No | Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Entry condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptocurrencies | |||||||
| 1 | BTCBTCUSDx | Long | 83,892.89 | 81,500 | 87,480 | 89,870 | Market · small size |
| 2 | ETHETHUSDx | Long | 2,693.74 | 2,560 | 2,894 | 2,995 | Market · small size |
| 3 | SOLSOLx | Long | 119.12 | 105.93 | 138.9 | 152.09 | Market |
| 4 | XRPXRPUSDx | Long | 1.5044 | 1.42 | 1.631 | 1.7155 | Market · small size |
| Indices | |||||||
| 5 | S&P 500USSP_CFDx | Long | 7,683.69 | 7,508 | 7,947 | 8,123 | Market · small size |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100USTech_CFDx | Long | 30,276.81 | 29,800 | 31,012 | 31,489 | Market · small size |
| 7 | DAXEU_CFDx | Long | 25,700 | 25,164 | 26,504 | 27,044 | Daily close above 25,700 |
| 8 | FTSE 100UK1x | Long | 10,820 | 10,586 | 11,171 | 11,405 | Daily close above 10,820 |
| Stocks | |||||||
| 9 | NVDANVDx | Long | 228.86 | 213.8 | 251.45 | 266.51 | Market |
- 1. BTC — long. At 83,893 after falling to 83,100 yesterday and recovering; it is back in the uptrend. The ETFs took 2.4 billion dollars over five sessions, the strongest week since October 2025, but Monday's inflow of 31 million dollars was the smallest of the run. On the options side net gamma has dropped below zero: hedging flows now enlarge the move rather than smoothing it, so volatility can rise. Action: buy with small size, target 85,500. Invalidated if: A close below 82,000, with 79,700 after that.
- 2. ETH — long. At 2,694, up 1.5% yesterday and in an uptrend; in slightly better shape than bitcoin. The 2,807 resistance has not been cleared for four weeks. Action: buy with small size, target 2,850. Invalidated if: Below 2,560.
- 3. SOL — long. At 119.12 and 8% ahead of bitcoin over the past month; it remains the relative strength leader in crypto and is in an uptrend. Action: buy, target 135. Invalidated if: Below 106.
- 4. XRP — long. At 1.5044 and up 1.1% yesterday; the trend is mixed and it is slightly behind bitcoin over the past month. Action: buy with small size, target 1.62. Invalidated if: Below 1.42.
- 5. S&P 500 — long. At 7,684 and down 0.8% yesterday; equities gave in to rates and the VIX rose 8% to 16.1. The trend is still up and the price sits above the 200-day average by 6%. Consumer confidence and job openings come today, PCE tomorrow. Action: buy with small size, target 7,816. Invalidated if: Below 7,508.
- 6. Nasdaq 100 — long. At 30,277 and down 1.1% yesterday; the names most sensitive to rates were hit hardest, with Meta losing 4.8% and AMD 3.6%. The only thing that limited the loss was Nvidia adding 150 billion dollars to its buyback plan. Action: buy with small size, target 30,770. Invalidated if: Below 29,800.
- 7. DAX — long. At 25,374 and the trigger has not come for a sixth day; European indices are in a mixed trend and 4.5% lower over the past month. Action: buy if a daily close above 25,700 arrives. Invalidated if: Below 25,164.
- 8. FTSE 100 — long. At 10,685 and the trend is mixed; the index is moving sideways, with neither buyers nor sellers dominant. Action: buy if a daily close above 10,820 arrives. Invalidated if: Below 10,586.
- 9. NVDA — long. At 228.86 dollars and the strongest setup today: two signals are positive at the same time, it rose 1.7% yesterday and decoupled in a falling market. The company added 150 billion dollars to its buyback plan, which means direct demand for the stock. It is 5.7% ahead of the index over the past month and 3% from its high. Action: buy, target 251. Invalidated if: Below 213.
Additional ideas
Ideas taken outside the core lists, in the order of the source list.
| No | Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Entry condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | ASMLASMx | Long | 1,771.41 | 1,640 | 1,968 | 2,100 | Market |
| 11 | TSMTSMx | Long | 452.88 | 420 | 502.2 | 535.1 | Market |
| 12 | AAPLAPLx | Long | 338.4 | 322 | 363 | 379.4 | Market |
| 13 | AMDAMDx | Long | 607.87 | 545 | 702.2 | 764.9 | Market · small size |
| 14 | MSFTNot traded on MT5 | Long | 509.22 | 486 | 544.05 | 567.3 | Market · small size |
| 15 | CVXCHVx | Long | 206.37 | 200 | 215.95 | 225.5 | Market |
| 16 | XOMXOMx | Long | 162.52 | 155 | 173.8 | 181.3 | Market |
| 17 | Brent CrudeBRENTx | Long | 103 | 96 | 113.5 | 120.5 | Pullback to 103 · small size |
| 18 | Natural GasNGASx | Long | 3.123 | 2.93 | 3.413 | 3.606 | Market · small size |
| 19 | CopperCOPPERx | Long | 6.635 | 6.4 | 6.988 | 7.223 | Market · small size |
| 20 | USDCADUSDCADx | Long | 1.4184 | 1.403 | 1.4415 | 1.4569 | Market · small size |
| 21 | USDCHFUSDCHFx | Long | 0.8329 | 0.823 | 0.8478 | 0.8577 | Market · small size |
| 22 | EURCHFEURCHFx | Long | 0.9465 | 0.9374 | 0.9602 | 0.9693 | Market |
| 23 | XLMXLMx | Long | 0.2263 | 0.199 | 0.2673 | 0.2946 | Market · small size |
| 24 | TSLATESX | Short | 357.45 | 389.74 | 309.02 | 276.72 | Market |
| 25 | CAC 40FR_CFDx | Short | 8,078.48 | 8,230 | 7,851 | 7,699 | Market |
| 26 | PalladiumXPDx | Short | 1,213 | 1,280 | 1,113 | 1,046 | Market |
- 10. ASML — long. At 1,771.41 dollars and up 1.6% yesterday, decoupling in a falling market; the trend is up in every time frame and it is 4.8% ahead of the index over the past month. Chip equipment is the longest-dated leg of artificial intelligence investment. Action: buy, target 1,900. Invalidated if: Below 1,640.
- 11. TSM — long. At 452.88 dollars and up 0.5% yesterday; the trend is up and it is 9.2% ahead of the index over the past month. The price is just below the past month's high of 455. Action: buy, target 490. Invalidated if: Below 420.
- 12. AAPL — long. At 338.40 dollars and down 0.8% yesterday; the trend is up in every time frame, it is 2% from its one-year high and 6.2% ahead of the index over the past month. Action: buy, target 365. Invalidated if: Below 322.
- 13. AMD — long. At 607.87 dollars and down 3.6% yesterday; the monthly gain is still 27.5% and it is 31% ahead of the index over the past month. After the close it announced the purchase of World Labs for 8.2 billion dollars. The trend is up but the correction can continue. Action: buy with small size, target 680. Invalidated if: Below 545.
- 14. MSFT — long. At 509.22 dollars and down 1.4% yesterday; the trend is up but it is slightly behind the index over the past month. The price is above the past month's average. Action: buy with small size, target 545. Invalidated if: Below 486.
- 15. CVX — long. At 206.37 dollars and up 0.9% yesterday; it is moving with oil and the trend is up in every time frame. Action: buy, target 218. Invalidated if: Below 200.
- 16. XOM — long. At 162.52 dollars and up 1.2% yesterday; energy stocks were on the winning side in a falling market. It is 4.1% ahead of the index over the past month. Action: buy, target 174. Invalidated if: Below 155.
- 17. Brent Crude — long. At 106.6 dollars and higher for a second day running. Gulf exports are at their highest since February but most of the increase rests on costly methods such as ship-to-ship transfer; that is why the price is staying high. The United States and Iran are talking separately through mediators. Action: buy with small size on a pullback to 103, target 114. Invalidated if: Below 96.
- 18. Natural Gas — long. At 3.123 dollars and up 4.1% yesterday; the weekly gain is 10.1%. The trend is mixed but momentum is turning up. Action: buy with small size, target 3.32. Invalidated if: Below 2.93.
- 19. Copper — long. At 6.635 dollars and up 1.1% yesterday; the trend is up but the Chinese side is weak and a week-long holiday starts this week. Action: buy with small size, target 7.00. Invalidated if: Below 6.40.
- 20. USDCAD — long. At 1.4184 and at a 60-day high; the trend is up but momentum is overbought at 74. Action: buy with small size, target 1.4310. Invalidated if: Below 1.4030.
- 21. USDCHF — long. At 0.8329 and at a one-year high with the trend up in every time frame; the Fed is tightening while the Swiss rate is at zero. Momentum is overbought at 71, so the size is small. Action: buy with small size, target 0.8460. Invalidated if: Below 0.8230.
- 22. EURCHF — long. At 0.9465 and the trend is up; the price is pressing against the past month's high of 0.9479. The euro is weak against the dollar but stays strong against the franc. Action: buy, target 0.9600. Invalidated if: Below 0.9374.
- 23. XLM — long. At 0.2263 and the strongest crypto setup on the list: it is 16.4% ahead of bitcoin over the past month. Decoupling while crypto corrects across the board is notable. Action: buy with small size, target 0.2610. Invalidated if: Below 0.1990.
- 24. TSLA — short. At 357.45 dollars and it moved into a downtrend with a 3.9% fall yesterday; the price sits below the 200-day average by 5.7% and below the past month's average. It is one of the growth stocks most sensitive to rates and yields are at their highest since 2007. Action: sell, target 309. Invalidated if: Above 390.
- 25. CAC 40 — short. At 8,078 and the trend has turned down in every time frame; it is Europe's weakest index, the price is below the 200-day average and it is 3.8% lower over the past month. Action: sell, target 7,920. Invalidated if: Above 8,230.
- 26. Palladium — short. At 1,213 dollars and the trend is down in every time frame; the monthly loss is 9.3%, the indicators are at 36 and the price sits below the 200-day average by 12%. Action: sell, target 1,140. Invalidated if: Above 1,280.
New ideas
Tesla has moved to the sell side: it entered a downtrend with a 3.9% fall yesterday and the price sits below the 200-day average by 5.7%; it is one of the growth stocks most sensitive to rates and yields are at their highest since 2007. XLM has been added as the strongest crypto setup on the list: it is 16.4% ahead of bitcoin over the past month while crypto corrects across the board.
A technical regime change in bitcoin
In the options structure net gamma has dropped below the zero turning point. In practice that means dealers' hedging now enlarges price moves rather than smoothing them. It says nothing about direction, but it shows that volatility can rise from here. If the 82,000-83,000 band holds, an attempt at 85,500 comes into view; if it gives way, 79,700 does.
Balance
There are three sell ideas: Tesla, France and palladium. The buy side sits in artificial intelligence infrastructure, energy and the franc crosses. The franc crosses are the cleanest expression of this environment: the Fed is tightening while the Swiss rate is at zero, so these ideas are not hurt by rising yields but benefit from them.
Considered, not taken
Instruments that were reviewed for this list and left without a trade, with the reason.
| Instrument | Side | Why it was not taken |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | Neutral | At 4,174 dollars and down 3.4% yesterday; it touched 4,111 intraday, the lowest since 5 August, and the loss within the month is 10.3%. Fund managers' net long position is the lowest since the end of July. Demand in China weakened ahead of the holiday. The trend is down. |
| Silver | Neutral | At 61.24 dollars with a monthly loss of 11.8%; the price sits below the 200-day average by 6%. |
| AVAX | Neutral | A 47% gain on the month but lower on the week; momentum is high and the trend is mixed. |
| EURUSD | Neutral | Close to a three-month low but the indicators are at 26; the direction is down and the entry level is poor. |
| GBPUSD | Neutral | The trend is mixed and it is not far from a three-month low; no position. |
| USDJPY | Neutral | A fresh warning has come from Tokyo; intervention risk is live and the direction runs both ways. |
| AUDUSD | Neutral | The rate has risen to a 15-year high but the currency could not follow; 0.70 is being tested. |
| LTC | Long | It is 19.8% ahead of bitcoin over the past month and the second strongest crypto setup on the list; but the crypto side already has five positions and XLM offers a better entry level. |
| AAVE | Long | It is 9% ahead of bitcoin on the month but our long idea closed at the stop two weeks ago; the crypto cluster was kept limited. |
| WTI | Long | The same thesis as Brent; Brent is the cleaner expression and WTI is more exposed to uncertainty over diesel policy. |
| META | Long | It was the hardest hit large technology name with a 4.8% fall yesterday and its trend is mixed; we are not catching a falling knife. |
| GOOGL | Long | It is 3.4% lower on the week and the trend is mixed. |
| Amazon | Long | It fell 1.4% yesterday, is 4% lower on the month and momentum is weak. |
| AUDCHF, CADCHF | Long | USDCHF and EURCHF were chosen among the franc crosses; four positions would multiply the same bet. |
| Wheat, Cocoa | Neutral | Both are flat with a mixed trend. |
| Coffee | Neutral | Not readable because of the continuous contract roll. |
| USDTRY | Long | The rate is at a new high of 48.99 and the indicators are at an extreme of 94; a technical breakout does not work in a managed exchange rate. The BIST 100 fell 2.4% yesterday to 12,593, a monthly loss of 14%, and the indicators are oversold at 28; the technical ground for a bounce is forming but the currency pressure continues. |
This page is for general information only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, and it does not take account of any recipient's objectives, financial situation or needs. Levels and commentary reflect a view at a point in time and may change without notice. Past performance does not indicate future results. Trading in leveraged products including Forex, CFDs and cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors; you may lose more than your initial investment.