24 trade ideas for 1 July 2026: 13 long and 11 short. Entry, stop and two targets are given for each, with the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.
Today's framework
Wednesday 1 July 2026. At the start of Q3 crypto has fallen to a 21-month low, with realized price, ETF outflows and Strategy's selling programme as the main sources of pressure; in stocks, the semiconductor rally is still the main theme of divergence.
With USDJPY at 162.84 approaching a 40-year high, a strong dollar remains the main negative channel for gold, silver and BTC. For every idea, technical structure, momentum, news flow, support and resistance, and risk against reward were assessed together.
Trade ideas
The price under each name is the last price when the list was prepared. Quality is the grade given to the setup, from A (strongest) down through A-, B+ and B. The entry condition says whether the idea is taken at the market or only once a stated level or confirmation is met.
| No | Quality | Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Entry condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptocurrencies | ||||||||
| 1 | A | BTCLast 58,958.61 | Short | 60,000 | 62,000 | 57,800 | 55,300 | Sell a retest of 60,000–61,000 |
| 2 | A- | ETHLast 1,587.42 | Short | 1,620 | 1,690 | 1,505 | 1,450 | Weak bounce to 1,620 |
| 3 | B+ | SOLLast 75.03 | Long | 75.2 | 70.8 | 80 | 84 | EMA50 breakout attempt |
| 4 | B+ | XRPLast 1.0494 | Short | 1.07 | 1.11 | 1.0092 | 0.95 | Sell a retest of 1.07 |
| 5 | B | AVAXLast 6.662 | Long | 6.5 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 7.8 | Reaction above 6.45 support |
| 6 | B | APTLast 0.581 | Short | 0.6 | 0.64 | 0.555 | 0.52 | Weakness below 0.60 |
| 7 | B+ | DOGELast 0.0721 | Short | 0.075 | 0.079 | 0.0695 | 0.066 | Sell a retest of 0.075 |
| 8 | B | ADALast 0.1512 | Long | 0.148 | 0.138 | 0.165 | 0.175 | Reaction above 0.145–0.148 support |
| 9 | B | ENSLast 4.1 | Short | 4.25 | 4.55 | 3.95 | 3.7 | Sell a retest of 4.25 |
| Commodities | ||||||||
| 10 | A- | GoldLast 3,985.90 | Short | 4,050 | 4,165 | 3,900 | 3,800 | Sell a retest of 4,050 |
| 11 | A- | SilverLast 57.945 | Short | 59.5 | 62 | 56 | 54 | Retest of 59–60 resistance |
| 12 | B+ | CopperLast 6.139 | Long | 6.1 | 5.9 | 6.35 | 6.55 | Buy support at 6.05–6.10 |
| 13 | B+ | Brent CrudeLast 73.08 | Short | 74 | 78 | 70 | 66 | Sell a retest of 74–75 |
| 14 | B+ | WTI CrudeLast 69.61 | Short | 70.5 | 74 | 66 | 62 | Sell a retest of 70.50–71 |
| Agricultural commodities | ||||||||
| 15 | A- | CocoaLast 5,002 | Long | 4,900 | 4,700 | 5,250 | 5,500 | Buy support at 4,850–4,900 |
| 16 | B+ | CoffeeLast 311.2 | Long | 305 | 288 | 325 | 340 | Buy a pullback to 300–305 |
| 17 | B | WheatLast 597 | Long | 595 | 575 | 620 | 640 | Buy above 590–595 support |
| Stocks | ||||||||
| 18 | A- | AMDLast 580.91 | Long | 570 | 535 | 600 | 625 | Buy a pullback to 565–570 |
| 19 | A- | ASMLLast 1,989.44 | Long | 1,950 | 1,860 | 2,050 | 2,120 | Buy support at 1,930–1,950 |
| 20 | A- | TSMLast 477.57 | Long | 465 | 440 | 495 | 520 | Buy support at 460–465 |
| 21 | B+ | NVDALast 200.09 | Long | 200 | 190 | 212 | 225 | Holding above 200 |
| 22 | B | MSFTLast 373.02 | Short | 380 | 397 | 350 | 330 | Sell a retest of 380 |
| Currencies | ||||||||
| 23 | B+ | USDJPYLast 162.722 | Long | 162.2 | 160.5 | 164 | 165 | Momentum above 162 |
| Indices | ||||||||
| 24 | B+ | Nasdaq 100Last 30,276.35 | Long | 30,000 | 29,200 | 30,750 | 31,200 | Buy support at 29,800–30,000 |
- 1. BTC — short. BTC tested a 21-month low and sits below the 200-week average and all the main EMAs. June's ETF outflows, Strategy's selling programme, a strong dollar and the risk of approaching realized price turn bounces into selling opportunities.
- 2. ETH — short. ETH sits below its EMA200 by about 32%, the monthly decline is deep and OBV points down. If the 1,600–1,620 band cannot be recovered and held, 1,505, the 52-week low, and a target of 1,450 come into view.
- 3. SOL — long. SOL is the clearest positive divergence in the crypto basket: +10% on the week, RSI at 55 and a positive MACD. If the EMA50 zone at 75.20 breaks to the upside, there is room for a tactical reaction toward the 80–84 band.
- 4. XRP — short. XRP is in a full bear EMA structure and weak on both the week and the month. Without a hold above 1.07, the low at 1.0092 and a continuation target of 0.95 are in the foreground.
- 5. AVAX — long. AVAX is positive on the week, with the stochastic at 96 and OBV UP. The main trend is still weak, but as long as 6.45–6.50 holds, a reaction toward 7.20 and 7.80 can be tried.
- 6. APT — short. APT has an oversold RSI and sits below its EMA200 by 55%. There is potential for a bounce, but the trend is strongly down; below 0.60, targets of 0.555 and 0.52 can be watched.
- 7. DOGE — short. DOGE is oversold with RSI at 22, but it is very close to its 52-week low and OBV points down. If 0.075 cannot be recovered, targets of 0.0695 and 0.066 come to the fore.
- 8. ADA — long. ADA is +4.28% on the day and has turned positive on the week; the stochastic is recovering. The overall trend is bearish, but holding above 0.145 can open room for a short-term reaction toward 0.165 and 0.175.
- 9. ENS — short. ENS looks oversold but sits below its EMA200 by 46%, OBV points down and the monthly decline is deep. As long as 4.25 remains resistance, targets of 3.95 and 3.70 stand.
- 10. Gold — short. Gold has had its worst monthly and quarterly performance since 2008; a strong dollar, the pricing of rate hikes and pressure from real yields continue. If the 4,050–4,100 band cannot be cleared, 3,900 and 3,800 can be targeted.
- 11. Silver — short. Silver is -22.75% on the month and below its EMA200. The stochastic is recovering but the trend is fragile; staying below 60 keeps targets of 56 and 54 in play.
- 12. Copper — long. Copper is resilient relative to the precious metals; it is above its EMA200 and OBV is UP. With the AI-infrastructure demand story intact, above 6.05–6.10 targets of 6.35 and 6.55 are reasonable.
- 13. Brent Crude — short. Brent has returned to pre-war levels; despite the Doha deadlock, the market is pricing a normalisation of supply. It is far below its EMA200 and RSI is oversold, but if the 74–75 band remains resistance, targets of 70 and 66 can be watched.
- 14. WTI Crude — short. WTI is around 70; despite the Hormuz risk, the story of supply and an unravelling OPEC dominates. Without a hold above 71, targets of 66 and 62 can come to the fore.
- 15. Cocoa — long. COCOA is a long-only selection on this list and its strong momentum is intact: +10% on the week, +27% on the month, OBV UP. As long as the 4,850–4,900 band holds, targets of 5,250 and 5,500 can be tried.
- 16. Coffee — long. COFFEE is a long-only selection on this list; RSI is overbought and there is short-term fatigue after 311, but weekly and monthly momentum and OBV are UP. A pullback to 300–305 can give a healthier entry for targets of 325 and 340.
- 17. Wheat — long. WHEAT is a long-only selection on this list; with price approaching 600, RSI is neutral and OBV is UP. As long as the 590–595 band holds, a tactical long can be tried for targets of 620 and 640.
- 18. AMD — long. AMD is in a clear BULL structure within the strong AI and semiconductor theme, +7.68% on the day and very close to its 52-week high. A pullback to 565–570 can offer a momentum-continuation trade for targets of 600 and 625.
- 19. ASML — long. ASML is in a BULL EMA structure, +23% on the month and very close to a new high. It is the highest-quality European leg of the semiconductor rally; above 1,930–1,950, targets of 2,050 and 2,120 are reasonable.
- 20. TSM — long. TSM is in a BULL structure, very close to its 52-week high and one of the strongest links in the AI supply chain. As long as the 460–465 zone holds, targets of 495 and 520 can be watched.
- 21. NVDA — long. NVDA has recovered the 200 threshold; the trend is not fully clean, but its AI leadership and index weight continue. Holding above 200 can create a tactical long area for targets of 212 and 225.
- 22. MSFT — short. MSFT is in a BEAR EMA structure and -17% on the month. A bounce to around 380 can be a selling opportunity; with AI cost and margin pressure continuing, targets of 350 and 330 can be watched.
- 23. USDJPY — long. USDJPY is at a 40-year high and RSI is overbought. Intervention risk is high, but Fed hawkishness and the carry differential continue; holding above 162 is a momentum trade for targets of 164 and 165, and the stop should be kept tight.
- 24. Nasdaq 100 — long. The NASDAQ100 remains strong after Q2; futures and the semiconductor rally are supportive. Holding above 29,800–30,000 is a tactical long area for targets of 30,750 and 31,200.
This page is for general information only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, and it does not take account of any recipient's objectives, financial situation or needs. Levels and commentary reflect a view at a point in time and may change without notice. Past performance does not indicate future results. Trading in leveraged products including Forex, CFDs and cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors; you may lose more than your initial investment.