Trading Signals - 26 October 2026

22 trade ideas for 26 October 2026: 7 long and 15 short. Entry, stop and two targets are given for each, with the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.

Today's framework

Monday 26 October 2026. The calendar sets the tone: the Fed decides on Wednesday, Alphabet and Microsoft report the same evening, the ECB follows on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday, with the midterm elections a week later. Going into a week like that carrying less risk is the rational choice, and the list is built that way.

Seven of the ideas are long and fifteen short. All are taken at the market except bitcoin, which waits for a confirmed close. The buy side is the energy names and the cash-generating large caps; the sell side is the part of technology that depends on borrowing.

Trade ideas

Entry is given as a band, or as the single level a conditional idea needs. The note under the table gives the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.

• 1. BTC — long. At 80,233 dollars and holding just above the 80,000 threshold; it touched 79,369 overnight and remains below the level lost on 23 October, 82,500. The cause of the fall is not on the crypto side but in the calendar: the Fed decides on Wednesday, Alphabet and Microsoft report the same day, and the midterm elections follow a week later. Going into a week like that with less risk is rational. The price sits above the 200-day average by 5.8%, so the long-term structure is intact. The direction is up but the entry depends on confirmation; chasing a buy before 80,400 breaks is expensive this week. Action: buy if a close above 80,400 arrives, target 81,214. Invalidated if: A close below 79,369.
• 2. ETH — short. At 2,326.51 dollars with the price making successively lower highs and lower lows; the monthly loss is 13.56% and it fell 1.09% yesterday. It is left above the 200-day average by only 0.7%, so the long-term support is being tested too. Momentum at 34 is close to oversold, so the size is small, but the structure is clearly down. Action: small sell in the 2,332-2,350 band, target 2,293.09. Invalidated if: A close above 2,371.52.
• 3. XOM — long. At 183.21 dollars with the price making successively higher highs and higher lows; over the past month it returned 15.9% more than the market and the monthly gain is 12.99%. It rose 2.79% on Friday, leaving it within 0.3% of its one-year high. The United States is evacuating its personnel in the Middle East and Trump spoke of the possibility of a new operation; the supply risk has become permanent. Action: buy in the 182.50-183.60 band, target 183.75. Invalidated if: A close below 179.
• 4. CVX — long. At 233.21 dollars with the price holding its rising high-low structure; over the past month it is 15.9% ahead of the market and it is within 0.2% of its one-year high. It closed Friday with 2.88%, stronger than Exxon, and the monthly gain is 13.40%. Action: buy in the 232.50-233.70 band, target 233.74. Invalidated if: A close below 227.98.
• 5. AAPL — long. At 347.73 dollars with the price in a rising high-low structure; over the past month it is 3.6% ahead of the market and only 1.1% below its one-year high. The weekly gain is 1.24%. In the funding split Musk described, this company is not on the borrowing side but on the cash-generating side. Action: buy in the 346.50-348.50 band, target 351.73. Invalidated if: A close below 345.75.
• 6. Brent Crude — long. At 109.72 dollars with the price in a rising high-low structure; it rose 6% last week to its highest weekly close since mid-2022. It fell 6% on Friday because Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Sunday. But the United States is evacuating personnel and the expectation of a strike after the midterms stands; this pullback is not permanent. Action: buy in the 109.30-110.50 band, target 111.20. Invalidated if: A close below 109.25.
• 7. WTI — long. At 101.11 dollars with the price in a rising high-low structure; the monthly gain is 6.87% and it is holding above 100 dollars. It pulled back 2.09% on Friday, which improved the entry. The spread to Brent has narrowed to 8.60 dollars. Action: buy in the 100.70-101.50 band, target 102.63. Invalidated if: A close below 100.69.
• 8. MSFT — long. At 524.51 dollars with the price holding its rising high-low structure; over the past month it is 3.2% ahead of the market. It rose 0.66% on Friday, but it reports on Wednesday and the Fed decides the same day. The structure is up, but with two events falling on the same evening the size is small. Action: small buy in the 523-526 band, target 525.77. Invalidated if: A close below 515.70. It is not traded on MT5.
• 9. ASML — short. At 1,571.80 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; over the past month it is 8.5% behind the market and the monthly loss is 8.75%. Musk's warning describes exactly this link: the debt markets have closed to companies with no revenue independent of artificial intelligence data centres, and more than 200 data centre companies are expected to merge. That means equipment orders being postponed. Action: sell in the 1,574-1,582 band, target 1,550. Invalidated if: A close above 1,581.64.
• 10. META — short. At 642.62 dollars and 13.2% behind the market over the past month; the weekly loss is 9.40% and the monthly 17.36%. The price has moved below the 200-day average. The cash flow reported last week was minus 2.12 billion dollars, which keeps it the company at the centre of the spending debate. Action: sell in the 645-652 band, target 633.27. Invalidated if: A close above 648.04.
• 11. AMD — short. At 516.79 dollars and 16.8% behind the market over the past month; the monthly loss is 17.87% and momentum is 39. It rose 1.74% on Friday, which created a better level for the sell. The funding bottleneck at small artificial intelligence companies affects chip demand directly. Action: sell in the 518-526 band, target 508.36. Invalidated if: A close above 523.92.
• 12. GOOGL — short. At 320.21 dollars and 5.4% behind the market over the past month; the weekly loss is 5.98% and the price sits below the 200-day average by 3.2%. Momentum is weak at 31. It reports on Wednesday, so the size is small. Action: small sell in the 322-325 band, target 320.18. Invalidated if: A close above 324.53.
• 13. Silver — short. At 54.29 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; the monthly loss is 14.45% and it is 55.2% below its one-year high. It rose 1.08% on Friday but the structure did not change. Action: sell in the 54.40-54.80 band, target 53.67. Invalidated if: A close above 57.00.
• 14. Platinum — short. At 1,550.70 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; the monthly loss is 11.34% and it is 45.6% below its one-year high. Momentum is 33. Action: sell in the 1,553-1,567 band, target 1,540.60. Invalidated if: A close above 1,580.
• 15. Palladium — short. At 1,046.50 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; the monthly loss is 17.61% and it is 51.8% below its one-year high. Momentum at 27 is deep in oversold, so the size is small. Action: small sell in the 1,048-1,058 band, target 1,039.50. Invalidated if: A close above 1,075.
• 16. Gold — short. At 4,026.90 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; the weekly loss is 3.69% and the monthly 6.31%. It touched 3,990.90 overnight, testing below the 4,000 threshold. Even in a week with three central bank decisions the safe-haven bid is not appearing. Action: sell in the 4,030-4,048 band, target 3,990.90. Invalidated if: A close above 4,050.20.
• 17. Natural Gas — short. At 2.995 dollars and it jumped 13.45% yesterday; that is more than twice its daily range, and a move of that size in a single day is usually given back. It is still 3.88% lower on the week and the price sits below the 200-day average by 3%. Momentum is weak at 32. Action: small sell in the 2.995-3.030 band, target 2.932. Invalidated if: A close above 3.06.
• 18. XRP — short. At 1.2916 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; the monthly loss is 17.65% and it is 8% behind bitcoin over the past month. It fell 0.68% yesterday and the price sits below the 200-day average by 4.6%. Action: sell in the 1.2950-1.3050 band, target 1.2733. Invalidated if: A close above 1.3159.
• 19. AVAX — short. At 8.907 dollars and 14.2% behind bitcoin over the past month; the weekly loss is 8.90% and the monthly 16.38%. It has fallen below 9 dollars and momentum is 36. Action: small sell in the 8.93-9.02 band, target 8.765. Invalidated if: A close above 9.09.
• 20. ADA — short. At 0.2045 dollars and, 19.2% behind bitcoin over the past month, the weakest in crypto; the weekly loss is 7.55% and the monthly 20.98%. The price sits below the 200-day average by 10.7%. Action: sell in the 0.2050-0.2085 band, target 0.2005. Invalidated if: A close above 0.2125.
• 21. CAC 40 — short. At 7,782.82 and the price is in a downtrend; the weekly loss is 2.19% and the price sits below the 200-day average by 4.7%. Momentum is 38 and it remains Europe's weakest index. The ECB decides on Thursday. Action: sell in the 7,790-7,812 band, target 7,728.45. Invalidated if: A close above 7,812.76.
• 22. CHFJPY — short. At 190.55 and the price is in a downtrend; it sits below the 200-day average by 2.4% and fell 0.16% yesterday. The Bank of Japan decides on Friday and the yen side is volatile ahead of it. Action: small sell in the 190.65-190.85 band, target 189.54. Invalidated if: A close above 191.31.

This page is for general information only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, and it does not take account of any recipient's objectives, financial situation or needs. Levels and commentary reflect a view at a point in time and may change without notice. Past performance does not indicate future results. Trading in leveraged products including Forex, CFDs and cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors; you may lose more than your initial investment.