11 trade ideas for 10 August 2026: 10 long and 1 short. Entry, stop and two targets are given for each, with the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.
Today's framework
Monday 10 August 2026. A jobs shock brought risk appetite back, oil recovered, and US CPI is due on Wednesday. Stock coverage is broad today.
Several ideas are conditional on a breakout being confirmed at a stated level. That is deliberate: a conditional entry also manages Wednesday's CPI risk, because if the breakout does not come, no position is opened.
Trade ideas
The price under each name is the last price when the list was prepared. Quality is the conviction grade given to the idea: High, Medium or Low. The entry condition says whether the idea is taken at the market or only once a stated level or confirmation is met.
| No | Quality | Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Entry condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptocurrencies | ||||||||
| 1 | Medium | BTCLast 65,137.91 | Long | 65,850 | 64,600 | 68,000 | 70,000 | Breakout confirmation (65,800) |
| 2 | Medium | ETHLast 1,923.84 | Long | 1,928 | 1,898 | 1,970 | 2,010 | Breakout confirmation (100-day average) |
| Commodities | ||||||||
| 3 | Medium | CopperLast 6.6375 | Long | 6.6375 | 6.55 | 6.8 | 6.9 | Market · re-entry near the record |
| 4 | Low | WTI CrudeLast 78.33 | Long | 78.33 | 77.3 | 80 | 81.7 | Market · geopolitical premium |
| Stocks | ||||||||
| 5 | Medium | AMDLast 483.36 | Short | 483.36 | 494 | 465 | 450 | Market · below the 50-day average |
| 6 | Low | AAPLLast 313.33 | Long | 313.33 | 309.5 | 320 | 328 | Market · reaction from support |
| 7 | Medium | ASMLLast 1,740.99 | Long | 1,740.99 | 1,700 | 1,810 | 1,860 | Market · chip rally momentum |
| 8 | Low | CVXLast 186.56 | Long | 186.56 | 183 | 192 | 196 | Market · washed-out dip with OBV divergence |
| Indices | ||||||||
| 9 | Medium | S&P 500Last 7,757.64 | Long | 7,795 | 7,720 | 7,900 | 8,000 | Breakout confirmation (52-week high) |
| 10 | Medium | Nasdaq 100Last 29,722.3 | Long | 29,722.3 | 29,350 | 30,300 | 30,760 | Market · momentum toward the high |
| Currencies | ||||||||
| 11 | Low | EURUSDLast 1.1558 | Long | 1.1575 | 1.1525 | 1.165 | 1.172 | Breakout confirmation (200-day average) |
- 1. BTC — long. Bitcoin moved above 65,000 dollars on Friday's weak jobs data and climbed back over its 50-day average; ETF inflows last week were 853 million dollars, the strongest since mid-April. 65,800 dollars is the critical level — a decisive break opens room toward 73,700 dollars. The idea depends on that breakout being confirmed, and because it is conditional it also manages Wednesday's CPI risk. A close below 64,600 (loss of the EMA50) breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 64,600 (loss of the EMA50) invalidates the breakout thesis.
- 2. ETH — long. Ether has run straight into its 100-day average (1,925 dollars); recovering that resistance on a daily close opens room higher. The idea depends on that confirmation, and because it is conditional it manages Wednesday's CPI risk (no breakout, no entry). First target 1,970; a close below 1,898 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 1,898 means the breakout has failed.
- 3. Copper — long. Copper is close to its all-time record (6.90), only 1.4 percent away; yesterday's pullback reset the momentum indicator from its ceiling (98) to 71, offering a cleaner re-entry. The trend structure is rising, price is above all the main averages, and demand from electrification and artificial intelligence gives structural support. Entry is close to the current price, with the record zone of 6.80–6.90 as the first target. A close below 6.55 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 6.55 invalidates the re-entry thesis.
- 4. WTI Crude — long. Oil has risen 5 percent in three sessions as the Hormuz deadlock deepened: Iran repeated that it will not open the strait until US conditions are met, the Houthis struck Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, and ADNOC said 15 vessels had been attacked. The geopolitical premium is being rebuilt and price is approaching the 200-day average (79.05). Entry is close to the current price, with the first target just above that average. The main risk is two-way headline flow plus Wednesday's CPI; this is a low-conviction idea with a tight stop. A close below 77.30 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 77.30 invalidates the geopolitical premium thesis.
- 5. AMD — short. AMD decoupled from the chip rally, falling 1.2 percent today and staying below its 50-day average (487); volume flow points down and the earnings weakness persists. Lagging while Nvidia and TSMC rise shows relative weakness. This is a short with entry close to the current price; first target 465. The main risk is the chip rally lifting AMD as well; a close above 494 (recovery of the 50-day average) breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close above 494 (recovery of the 50-day average) invalidates the short thesis.
- 6. AAPL — long. Apple is holding above its 50-day average (309.91), volume flow has turned up and the momentum indicator is recovering from its low; the reaction from support is gaining strength. Entry is close to the current price with the stop just below the average; first target 320. A close below 309.5 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 309.5 (loss of the 50-day average) invalidates the idea.
- 7. ASML — long. ASML rose 2.2 percent with the chip rally (led by TSMC and SK Hynix), moved into a rising structure above its 50-day average and is up 7 percent on the week. Weak volume flow is the one warning. Entry is close to the current price, first target 1,810; a close below 1,700 (loss of the 50-day average) breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 1,700 (loss of the 50-day average) invalidates the momentum thesis.
- 8. CVX — long. Chevron fell 1.4 percent today, pulling the momentum indicator to its most extreme low (6), but volume flow points up — a divergence that suggests buying came in while price fell. The structure is rising and price sits just above the 50-day average (185.20). With oil recovering, the energy side can catch up. Entry is close to the current price with the stop below the average; first target 192. A close below 183 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 183 invalidates the reaction thesis.
- 9. S&P 500 — long. The S&P 500 made a record close on Friday's dovish jobs data and is up more than 13 percent since the start of the year; the earnings season is strong (EPS up 30 percent year on year) and JPMorgan raised its target to 8,000. Price sits just below the 52-week high (7,794); a daily close above that high opens room toward the 8,000 target. The idea depends on that breakout being confirmed, and because it is conditional it manages Wednesday's CPI risk. The momentum indicator is overbought, so the stop is tight; a close below 7,720 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 7,720 means the breakout has failed.
- 10. Nasdaq 100 — long. The Nasdaq 100 is in a rising structure, up 5 percent on the week with the chip rally (TSMC, SK Hynix), and sits below its 52-week high (30,762) by about 3.5 percent — it has more room than the S&P (RSI 57, far from overbought). Entry is close to the current price, first target 30,300, then the high. The momentum indicator is elevated and there is CPI event risk on Wednesday; a close below 29,350 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 29,350 invalidates the momentum thesis.
- 11. EURUSD — long. Euro/dollar is near its strongest level since mid-June under the pressure that weak jobs data has put on the dollar, and sits exactly on its 200-day average (1.1559). A daily close above that average opens room higher within the dollar-weakness theme; the idea depends on that confirmation and, being conditional, manages Wednesday's CPI risk. Momentum is measured today because the dollar recovered slightly with the rise in oil; a close below 1.1525 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 1.1525 means the breakout has failed.
Market by market
- Cryptocurrencies. Weak jobs data opened up risk appetite; the majors lean long but most are extended. BTC is a conditional breakout long above 65,800 (which manages the CPI risk). ETH is a conditional breakout at the 100-day average. SOL has turned into the strongest name but its stochastic is at the ceiling (yesterday's short was stopped) — neutral. XRP is the weakest, ADA is a cooling parabolic move, AVAX is weak — neutral.
- Commodities. Copper is 1.4% from its record and the pullback reset the overbought reading — a re-entry long. Oil is a recovery long on the Hormuz deadlock and refinery attacks (low conviction). Gold (9% on the week, stochastic 99, OBV divergence) and silver (EMA200 resistance) are at overbought extremes — neutral.
- Agricultural commodities. Wheat moved back above its 50-day average but without volume, so it is unconfirmed — nothing was forced.
- Stocks. Broad coverage, themed around the chip rally. ASML is a momentum long above the EMA50. AAPL is a long on a reaction from support with OBV turning. CVX is a long on a washed-out dip with OBV divergence. AMD is the weak name decoupling from the chip rally, a short below the 50-day average. NVDA and MSFT are parabolic and TSLA is a risk-on bounce — neutral.
Considered, not taken
Instruments that were reviewed for this list and left without a trade, with the reason.
| Instrument | Side | Why it was not taken |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | Neutral | Gold jumped 9 percent on the week to 4,402 dollars and is approaching Citi's fourth-quarter target of 4,500, but the momentum indicator is at an extreme overbought reading and volume flow does not confirm this last leg. A new long is not chased from an extreme like this; a pullback can be waited for. |
| MSFT | Neutral | Microsoft has run up to 500 dollars, is up 30 percent on the month, and its momentum indicator is parabolic in overbought territory. From here a new long is risky and so is a short against a strong trend; nothing was forced today. |
This page is for general information only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, and it does not take account of any recipient's objectives, financial situation or needs. Levels and commentary reflect a view at a point in time and may change without notice. Past performance does not indicate future results. Trading in leveraged products including Forex, CFDs and cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors; you may lose more than your initial investment.