Trading Signals - 14 September 2026

24 trade ideas for 14 September 2026: 19 long and 5 short. Entry, stop and two targets are given for each, with the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.

Today's framework

There are two decisions this week: the Fed on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. A hike is priced into both, and the market is now looking for the answer to a different question — is this a one-off adjustment or the start of a cycle?

Today's news came from somewhere else entirely. Executives at the AI companies themselves called for the pace of development to be slowed, and chip shares fell 5–13% across Asia. The third theme is energy: the pipeline that is Saudi Arabia's main alternative to Hormuz was shut after a drone attack, and Brent is at $107.

The ideas sit on those three axes: small size and confirmed entries ahead of the decisions, normal size on the energy side, and both long and short exposure to the AI debate.

Core ideas

The core list is 16 positions: cryptocurrencies 5, indices 4, stocks 1, currencies 4, commodities 2. “Layer” is how firmly the idea is held — Core is a standing position, Tactical is held for the current setup only, and Trigger means nothing is done until the stated condition is met.

• 1. BTC — long. At 77,500 after a flat weekend: down 3.5% on the week, up 23% on the month. This is the busiest week of the year for crypto — the Senate votes on the Clarity Act tomorrow and the Fed decides on Wednesday. Bitcoin has become acutely rate-sensitive, selling off hard after every hot print on the way down from 82,400, and the only question is whether the hike now priced at 86–90% is already in the price. ETFs saw $463m of outflows last week, ending a three-week run of inflows. Overhead, 77,100–80,200 is where long-term holders have been selling. Risk: 76,200 is support that has held since August and a negative vote tomorrow would test it; the real decision is Wednesday's.
• 2. ETH — long. At 2,511 and flat on the week while Bitcoin fell 3.5% — the most resilient large name in crypto this week, and its weekly trend has turned up. Price is 14% above the 200-day average, the highest reading in the core list. Resistance has moved: the one-month high is now 2,666, and 2,566 — unbroken for three weeks — is behind it. Risk: movement across crypto may stay limited ahead of two major events; if Bitcoin breaks 76,200, ether drops toward 2,356.
• 3. SOL — long. At 101 after a 5.2% weekly fall, worse than Bitcoin. The 34% monthly gain is still strong but its lead over Bitcoin has narrowed from 8% to 3%, so the leadership is fading. It is holding just above the $100 psychological threshold, with the one-month low at 94.95 as first support below. Futures shorts continue to pay. Risk: two major events in two days and Solana is the most volatile name in the core list; an unfavourable vote brings the 95 area quickly, hence the small size.
• 4. AVAX — long. Down to 7.41 after a 6.4% weekly loss — the worst in the core list — and the 8.32 breakout we have waited two weeks for never came. It was tried three times and rejected three times, and price now sits 12% below the 200-day average. We are pulling the trigger level down to the one-month high at 8.20, but expectations are low. Risk: open interest is rising while price falls, which means the short side is adding; 7.00 could be tested before the trigger, and a break there ends the bottoming thesis entirely.
• 5. XRP — long. At 1.377 after a 3.3% weekly loss, holding just above its 200-day average. The Senate takes its first vote on the regulation bill tomorrow at 18:15 and needs 60 votes; as of Friday they were not there, and Republicans published the final draft on Sunday. XRP is the name most directly exposed to that vote, and the outcome is not symmetric: passage gives a limited rally, failure gives a sharp sell-off. Open interest rose 5%, so both sides are positioning. Risk: the vote may not happen at all, or be postponed; uncertainty alone is a reason to sell, so keep the size small.
• 6. S&P 500 — long. Friday ended a four-day decline with a 0.9% rise to 7,657, and the volatility index fell 11% — the inflation print made the hike a certainty and removed the uncertainty. The weekly picture is still negative, and the Dow had its worst week since March. Goldman's historical note gives the frame: at the start of the last seven tightening cycles the index fell about 2% over three months on average, but gained about 9% over the twelve months after the first hike. Futures are opening lower today on the AI news. Risk: the real information is in Wednesday's dot plot and whether Warsh frames this as a one-off adjustment or a cycle; below 7,561 the idea is done.
• 7. Nasdaq 100 — long. Recovered 0.9% on Friday, but futures are opening 1.2–1.3% lower today for an unusual reason: Anthropic's chief executive called for the pace of AI development to be slowed, OpenAI and xAI joined, and OpenAI said it will not list this year. In Asia, SoftBank fell 13%, Kioxia 10% and SK Hynix 5.3%. A warning from inside the sector puts the story that has carried the market for three years in question. The index is still 7% above its 200-day average and the trend is up. Risk: 28,876 is the one-month low and today's selling could bring it close; a break would accelerate the rotation out of chips and large-cap technology into energy and value.
• 8. DAX — long. At 25,569 after a 0.8% Friday recovery, but down 1.8% on the week; European indices have been sold two weeks running and the DAX is only 3% above its 200-day average. The ECB raised rates for the second time last week and some members are keeping October on the table; Lagarde and three ECB members speak today. Risk: confirmation is required before entry — this is a trigger idea for that reason.
• 9. FTSE 100 — long. At 10,650 after a mild Friday recovery, down 1.7% on the week; the energy and mining weighting that helped for two weeks is not working, because rising bond yields are hitting every equity group together. Oil at $107 with pipeline-attack risk to the upside is this index's strongest leg. Risk: the index is only 3% above its 200-day average and momentum is weak; if it falls while oil rises, no entry should be taken before this week's recovery is confirmed.
• 10. NVDA — long. At 218.29 and down 4.3% on the week, the weakest of the large-cap technology names; the selling in chips continues today on the AI headlines. But price has landed exactly on its one-month average, the trend is up on every timeframe, and it is 10% above the 200-day. There is no deterioration in demand; the selling is valuation- and rate-driven, and the call for a slowdown from inside the sector is an emotional trigger. Risk: chip shares fell 5–13% in Asia today and that selling can carry into the US open; below 204.97 the idea is done. It is not a data day but it is a headline day, so keep the size small.
• 11. EURUSD — long. Down to 1.1573 and testing support at 1.156; the euro closed the week lower despite the ECB warning of further hikes, because demand for dollars ahead of the Fed is dominant. Against that, something interesting has changed: the euro now rises when equities fall, so this month the haven role sits with the yen and the euro rather than the dollar. The trigger is unlikely to fire before the Fed. Risk: if the Fed hikes on Wednesday and Warsh signals a cycle, the dollar strengthens and the euro slips toward the 1.1533 low; Lagarde speaks today and can move it short term.
• 12. GBPUSD — long. At 1.3505, with the Bank of England expected to hold on Thursday — the probability of a hike is only 25%, though the vote may be split. Sterling has been flat through two weeks of dollar strength, neither gaining nor losing; price sits just below its one-month average and the stop is close, so the risk is small. Risk: if the Fed hikes and the dollar gains broadly, 1.3431 arrives quickly; with the Fed and the BoE in the same week the size should stay small and the real move comes after Wednesday.
• 13. USDJPY — short. At 154.07, with the yen 4% stronger this month. An important shift: speculators have moved to the long-yen side for the first time since February. The Bank of Japan decides on Friday with a hike priced at 76% and therefore almost fully in the price, which makes the guidance that follows the real issue. TD Securities is explicit: without a new hike put on the table for October or December, the pair snaps back to 157–160. Risk: the pair is starting to leave oversold territory and is caught between two central bank decisions; if the Fed hikes and Japan gives no guidance, the reaction higher is fast.
• 14. AUDUSD — long. Down to 0.7149 for a 0.7% weekly loss, with the one-month high at 0.7239 unbroken for five days. Copper has pulled back 6% from its record and commodity support has weakened; the Australian market is in its most sold zone of the past year. We are converting this from a trigger to a market entry because price has retraced to its one-month average and the stop is closer. Risk: the Australian dollar is the major most sensitive to risk appetite and there is an AI-driven sell-off today; if the Fed hikes, commodity currencies are sold together and below 0.7053 the idea is done.
• 15. Gold — long. At 4,367 after a third consecutive negative week, down 2.8%. There are two channels behind it: inflation-adjusted bond yields have risen, so government bonds now pay a serious return while gold pays nothing, and the Fed and the Bank of Japan both raise rates in the same week. Waterer at KCM Trade puts it plainly — gold cannot find conditions it likes. It cannot rally with oil at $107 and a widening war, which shows how heavy the pressure is. Risk: if Warsh signals a cycle on Wednesday, gold tests the 4,292 low; the same uncertainty can create hedging demand the following week.
• 16. Silver — long. At 64.21 after a 4.1% weekly loss; price is below the 200-day average and very close to the one-month low at 63.10. Both of its identities work against it: rate pressure on the precious-metal side, and copper's 6% pullback from its record on the industrial side. The candidate list even contains a short setup for silver below 63.10. Risk: a break of 63.10 leaves open space down to the $60 area; the whole metals group is under pressure in a Fed week, so patience is required.

Additional ideas

8 ideas outside the core list, taken on their own setups. They carry no layer marking.

• 17. XOM — long. At 165.99 after closing the week 2.3% higher; the stock stayed positive through four days of a falling market and has outperformed the index by 7% over the past month. The reason is oil: drones launched from Iraq at the weekend struck Saudi Arabia's East–West pipeline and it was shut — this was the main alternative to Hormuz, carrying 4–5 million barrels a day — and the Houthis said they would strike Saudi vessels at the entrance to the Red Sea. Brent is at 107 and WTI at 102.5, with monthly gains above 20%. Price is close to the one-month high at 168.64. Risk: energy equities gain while oil stays high, but a resumption of Iran–Gulf talks brings a sharp correction; below 157.13 the idea is done.
• 18. AAPL — long. At 332.27 and approaching record territory: up 1.75% on Friday, up 10% over the past month and 11% ahead of the index, only 3.5% from its one-year high. That it held this firm through four falling days and through today's AI sell-off is notable; the stock sits outside the AI infrastructure-spending debate, which gives it a defensive quality within the sector. Price is at the top of its normal volatility range, so the entry is something of a chase. Risk: the stock is up 10% in two weeks and momentum is close to overbought; if the Fed signals a cycle on Wednesday, all large-cap technology is sold together and below 312.17 the idea is done.
• 19. XMR — long. At $522.80 and the strongest crypto setup on the candidate list this week: two signals positive at once, price pulled back inside an uptrend, and 20% ahead of Bitcoin over the past month. The weekly trend is up, price is 34% above the 200-day average, and flows into privacy-focused networks continue. That Monero is holding better than Bitcoin during a week of crypto selling is notable. Risk: its data comes from an exchange outside Binance and futures positioning cannot be tracked; privacy coins are the group most exposed to regulatory headlines and the Senate votes tomorrow. Below 442.58 the idea is done.
• 20. NEO — long. At $2.28 and one of the rare names rising within crypto this week: up 4.9% on the week, 35% on the month, and 6% ahead of Bitcoin over the past month. Volume is 2.6 times the average, so the move is coming with participation. The one-month high at 2.357 sits just above and price is pressing against it. Futures shorts are paying, so the other side is carrying the cost. Risk: this is a small-cap coin and moves like this can be given back quickly; with two major events inside two days, it would be among the hardest hit in a broad crypto sell-off. Keep the size small.
• 21. Natural Gas — short. At $2.89 after rising 2.1% over the weekend but flat on the week; price is 7% below the 200-day average and 63% below its one-year high. That gas is this far behind while oil sits at $107 with pipeline-attack risk to the upside is a question of geography: the war is hitting crude moving through Hormuz and the Red Sea, while US natural gas depends on domestic production. This idea is the natural balance to the energy-equity long. Risk: the heating season is approaching and price has turned up over the last two days; an early cold forecast breaks the idea quickly.
• 22. Palladium — short. At $1,310 and the weakest metal of last week with an 8.2% loss; the trend is down on every timeframe and price is 6% below the 200-day average. The whole precious complex is under rate pressure, but palladium is the one name that has moved into a downtrend on its own: industrial demand is weak and there is no support from the automotive side. The candidate list carries both a market and a trigger short setup, so the signal is consistent. This is the counterweight to the gold and silver longs. Risk: if the metals group recovers together after the Fed, palladium rises with it.
• 23. CAC 40 — short. At 8,180 and still Europe's weakest index: down 5.4% over the past month and below its 200-day average, so the long-term trend is broken as well. France's debt burden, oil as a cost to energy-importing Europe, and two consecutive ECB hikes all stack up. This idea is the balance to the German and UK trigger longs on the list. Risk: it recovered 0.78% on Friday and momentum is close to oversold; if Lagarde speaks softly today, all European indices rise together.
• 24. ASML — short. At $1,698 and 6% behind the index over the past month; chip-equipment names are at the centre of this week's AI slowdown debate. The call from Anthropic, OpenAI and xAI to slow the pace of development hits equipment makers directly, because their order books depend on the longest-dated investment decisions; memory and equipment shares fell 5–13% in Asia today. Price is 13% above the 200-day average, so there is room to fall. Risk: we are on the opposite side of the same sector as our NVDA long, and that is deliberate — the demand story is firmer in the leading names than in equipment. The stock rose 0.64% on Friday.

What changed since the last list

• AUDUSD moved from a trigger to a market entry: price retraced to its one-month average and the stop came closer.
• AVAX trigger lowered from 8.35 to 8.20; the breakout was rejected three times and expectations are low.
• Copper was not renewed — it pulled back 6% from its record and the trend turned mixed.
• AMD was not renewed; an ASML short in the same sector, on the opposite side, replaces it.
• New: XMR and NEO longs (the two names separating from the pack within crypto this week) and the ASML short.
• Gold and silver sizes were reduced.

The two decisions this week

The Fed raises rates on Wednesday on an 86–90% probability — the first increase since July 2023. What matters is the dot plot and Warsh's press conference. Futures price a total of 90 basis points through the second half of next year: less than that is relief for bonds, crypto and equities; more than that means the 10-year yield above 5%.

The Bank of Japan raises to 1.25% on Friday on a 76% probability. According to TD Securities, without a signal of a further hike for October or December, USD/JPY returns to 157–160.

The Senate also votes on crypto regulation tomorrow. Sixty votes are required and, as of Friday, they were not there. All three events bear directly on this list, which is why most of the market entries carry a small size note.

Clustering and balance

The list runs 19 long against 5 short. The crypto core is 5 positions and all of them are exposed to tomorrow's vote — if it fails they lose together, which is why three are marked small size.

The AI theme appears on both sides: NVDA and AAPL long, ASML short. That is deliberate — the demand story is firmer in the leading names than in equipment and the supply chain. The metals cluster is three positions (gold and silver long, palladium short) and is close to neutral in net direction. In energy, the XOM long and the natural gas short offset each other.

The 5 shorts cover different risks: USDJPY, Natural Gas, Palladium, CAC 40, ASML. ASML sits against the AI longs, palladium against the metals longs, natural gas against the energy-equity long, the CAC 40 against the German and UK trigger longs, and USDJPY carries the yen side of the Bank of Japan decision. If a sharp sell-off follows the Fed, those positions hold the list up; in a dovish scenario the long side works and the shorts take limited losses.

Relationships to watch

The euro now rises when equities fall: its relationship with the volatility index has turned positive and it is moving inversely to the equity index. The haven role this month sits with the yen and the euro, not the dollar. That changes the basis for the euro and sterling longs — they now rest on their own setups and on hedging demand rather than on dollar weakness.

Bitcoin and gold continue to move together and both have fallen for three weeks. Silver's link to copper is strong, and the metals group is trading as a single block.

Considered, not taken

Every idea that reached the shortlist and was left out, with the reason.

This page is for general information only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, and it does not take account of any recipient's objectives, financial situation or needs. Levels and commentary reflect a view at a point in time and may change without notice. Past performance does not indicate future results. Trading in leveraged products including Forex, CFDs and cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors; you may lose more than your initial investment.