Trading Signals - 12 August 2026

12 trade ideas for 12 August 2026: 9 long and 3 short. Entry, stop and two targets are given for each, with the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.

Today's framework

Wednesday 12 August 2026 is US CPI day. The release is the likely catalyst for a breakout from a five-week squeeze, and Brent is at 90 dollars after a sixth straight daily gain.

Because the print is a binary event, several ideas are conditional on a breakout being confirmed: if the data comes in hot and the breakout does not happen, the position is simply never opened. Where a setup was extended or unclear ahead of the release, nothing was forced and the instrument is listed as neutral.

Trade ideas

The price under each name is the last price when the list was prepared. Quality is the conviction grade given to the idea: High, Medium or Low. The entry condition says whether the idea is taken at the market or only once a stated level or confirmation is met.

• 1. BTC — long. Bitcoin has been squeezed in a 62,000–66,000 band for five weeks and trading volume is the lowest in three years; steady ETF inflows are being offset by miner selling and Strategy's OTC sales. Underneath, though, accumulation is strong: wallets holding 10k+ BTC are at a six-month high, and since 29 July whales have bought 1.5 billion dollars' worth. Today's CPI is the breakout catalyst for this squeeze — on soft data 66,000 breaks, the short build-up above becomes fuel, and the target is 70,000. The idea depends on that breakout being confirmed. A move back below 64,800 breaks the thesis. (Downside scenario: a sharp break below 62,000.) Invalidated if: A move back below 64,800 means the breakout has failed; below 62,000 is a separate downside scenario.
• 2. ETH — long. Ether reacted from its 50-day average (1,864) and volume flow has turned up; the 100-day average (1,922) is nearby resistance. Entry is close to the current price with the stop just below the average; the first target is the 100-day average, then 1,970. Conviction is low because today's CPI is a binary risk; a close below 1,862 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 1,862 (loss of the 50-day average) invalidates the reaction thesis.
• 3. Copper — long. Copper is close to its all-time record (6.90) and in a rising structure; the momentum indicator is at 63 (room left) and volume flow points up. Electrification and artificial-intelligence demand, together with Nvidia's 500 billion dollar infrastructure platform, feed the structural support; it is relatively independent of CPI. Entry is close to the current price, first target 6.76, then the record. A close below 6.57 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 6.57 invalidates the record-continuation thesis.
• 4. Brent Crude — long. Brent rose for a sixth straight day to reach 90 dollars (the longest run since April); a deadly Houthi attack on an Egyptian vessel in the Red Sea and a US strike on a ship off Pakistan are keeping the premium sharply alive. Price is above all the main averages with momentum pointing up. Entry is close to the current price, first target 92. Two warnings: a six-day rise is an extended run, and a ‘deal’ headline could hit price hard. A close below 88.00 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 88.00 invalidates the premium thesis.
• 5. AMD — short. AMD has clearly decoupled from the chip rally with an 8.5 percent weekly loss and sits below its 50-day average (486); volume flow points down. Today's slight recovery does not change the structure. This is a short with entry close to the current price; first target 458. A close above 486 (the 50-day average) breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close above 486 (recovery of the 50-day average) invalidates the short thesis.
• 6. TSLA — short. Tesla is far below all the main averages (down 18 percent on the month), but the bounce of recent days has carried the momentum indicator into overbought territory — an exhausting jump against a falling structure. Volume flow turning up is the one warning. This is a short with entry close to the current price; first target 318. A close above 343 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close above 343 means the bounce continues and the thesis is invalid.
• 7. CVX — long. Chevron has strong support from Brent's six-day rise to 90 dollars; it is in a rising structure, volume flow points up and the momentum indicator is at 32 (room left). Yesterday's long is being carried, and this is a continuation idea. Entry is close to the current price, first target 202. A close below 193 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 193 invalidates the energy-continuation thesis.
• 8. S&P 500 — long. The S&P 500 sits just below its record high (7,794) in a bullish structure, but the momentum indicator is overbought; strong cloud earnings are giving support. A daily close above that high opens room toward 8,000. The idea depends on that breakout being confirmed — being conditional, it manages today's CPI risk (on a hot print the breakout does not happen and you automatically stay out). A close below 7,720 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 7,720 means the breakout has failed.
• 9. Nasdaq 100 — long. The Nasdaq 100 is supported by the CoreWeave (+16%) and Super Micro (+8%) results lifting futures, and sits below its 52-week high (30,762) by 4 percent — if it runs, it has room. But the momentum indicator is overbought, volume flow points down and CPI is today; the stop is tight and the idea depends on CPI cooperating. Entry is close to the current price, first target 30,300. A close below 29,050 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 29,050 invalidates the momentum thesis.
• 10. DAX — long. The DAX is at a new 52-week high (26,504), but RSI (71) and the momentum indicator (at its ceiling) are at overbought extremes and yesterday's breakout attempt faded (bull-trap risk). Rather than chasing, the entry is taken as a decisive daily close above this new high; being conditional, it manages today's CPI risk. First target 27,100. A close below 26,150 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 26,150 means the breakout has failed.
• 11. EURUSD — long. Euro/dollar sits just below its 200-day average (1.1559) and the dollar is firm ahead of CPI. According to DBS, if CPI disappoints (soft), speculators will cut their long-dollar positions against the euro — a close above that average would revive the dollar-weakness theme. The idea depends on that confirmation (the soft-CPI scenario). A close below 1.1525 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 1.1525 means the breakout has failed.
• 12. USDJPY — short. Dollar/yen rose to 159.44, the weakest yen level of the month; rising yields are carrying it, but there are two opposing forces: the BOJ's July minutes were hawkish (a September hike is expected), and a soft CPI would weaken the dollar. This is a fade against rising yields. It is a short with entry close to the current price; the first target is the 200-day average (157.75). The main risk is yields rising further or a hot CPI; a close above 160.50 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close above 160.50 means yen weakness continues and the thesis is invalid.

Market by market

• Cryptocurrencies. CPI day, and the five-week BTC squeeze is nearing a breakout. BTC is a conditional breakout long above 66,000 (whale accumulation plus short fuel, target 70k; downside scenario 62k). ETH is a reaction long from the 50-day average (OBV turned). SOL is at resistance, XRP at its 52-week low, AVAX dumped and ADA fading — neutral.
• Commodities. Copper is near its record with room on the stochastic — a structural-demand long (independent of CPI). Brent is at 90 on its 6th day, above all averages — a geopolitical premium long (extended run plus deal risk). Gold (stochastic 100, OBV divergence) and silver (recovered the EMA200 but stochastic 98) are at overbought extremes — neutral.
• Agricultural commodities. Wheat has no volume and no confirmation — nothing was forced.
• Stocks. AMD is a continuation short below the 50-day average after an 8.5% weekly loss. TSLA is a short on the rejection of an exhausting bounce. CVX is an energy long on the Brent premium. NVDA is consolidating, ASML is at an overbought extreme after +3.8%, MSFT is parabolic and AAPL is below the EMA50 — neutral.
• Indices. The S&P record breakout and the DAX new 52-week-high breakout are conditional longs (they manage the CPI risk; the DAX faded yesterday, a bull-trap warning). The Nasdaq is a momentum long toward the high on the cloud-earnings tailwind. All three are overbought.
• Currencies. EURUSD is a conditional long at the 200-day average (soft CPI means dollar weakness, per DBS). USDJPY at 159.44 is a fade short on a hawkish BOJ plus soft CPI. GBPUSD (the strongest) and AUDUSD (hawkish RBA plus commodities) are overbought with no clean entry — neutral.

Considered, not taken

Instruments that were reviewed for this list and left without a trade, with the reason.

This page is for general information only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, and it does not take account of any recipient's objectives, financial situation or needs. Levels and commentary reflect a view at a point in time and may change without notice. Past performance does not indicate future results. Trading in leveraged products including Forex, CFDs and cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors; you may lose more than your initial investment.