Trading Signals - 17 August 2026

13 trade ideas for 17 August 2026: 11 long and 2 short. Entry, stop and two targets are given for each, with the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.

Today's framework

Monday 17 August 2026. A weak-dollar regime is in charge: soft retail sales pushed the dollar to its low of the month, the Fed is on hold while Europe and Japan are raising rates, and that backdrop is lifting metals, indices and the euro.

Crypto is the exception. Bitcoin cannot rise on good news, ETF flows have turned negative and the Bollinger squeeze is the tightest in months, so the only crypto idea is a conditional short. Where an instrument was extended or washed out, nothing was forced and it is listed as neutral.

Trade ideas

The price under each name is the last price when the list was prepared. Quality is the conviction grade given to the idea: High, Medium or Low. The entry condition says whether the idea is taken at the market or only once a stated level or confirmation is met.

• 1. BTC — short. Bitcoin is in a Bollinger squeeze (two-day) narrower than anything seen in months, a large breakout setup; the point of control is 64,000. The flow side is weak: ETFs saw 389 million dollars of outflows last week (the largest in six weeks), spot demand is soft, and BTC cannot rise despite good news. The liquidation balance shows the downside opening once the 62,000–66,000 band breaks. A sustained move below 62,000 makes 58,000 the target. Upside scenario: if 63,500 holds and 64,050 is recovered, the short tower above (64,200–64,300) can be squeezed. The idea depends on the downside break. A move back above 63,100 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A move back above 63,100 means the downside break has failed; above 64,050 is a separate upside-squeeze scenario.
• 2. Gold — long. Gold rose 1.6 percent as weak retail sales pushed the dollar to its low of the month, and its monthly gain is 10.9 percent; a Fed-on-hold regime is strong ground for a metal that pays no yield. Price is above the 4,400 threshold flagged by Spivak (if it clears that, a year-end target of 5,000 is on the table), RSI at 68 is not yet overbought, and volume flow points up. Entry is close to the current price, first target 4,550 (the zone of Citi's target). A close below 4,380 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 4,380 weakens the weak-dollar thesis and invalidates the idea.
• 3. Silver — long. Silver is back above its 200-day average (65.17), is the strongest commodity with a 17.4 percent monthly gain, and its volume ratio is 16 times normal (exceptional institutional interest); the weak-dollar regime supports it. The momentum indicator is overbought, hence the low conviction and tight stop. Entry is close to the current price, first target 68. A close below 64.30 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 64.30 (under the 200-day average) invalidates the idea.
• 4. Copper — long. Copper is close to its all-time record (6.739), only 0.21 percent away; the bull structure is complete, volume flow points up, and a weak dollar, the tariff barometer (the COMEX–LME premium) and demand from artificial intelligence, grids and defence give triple support. Yesterday's idea reached TP1; this is a record-breakout idea. A daily close above the record opens new highs. Entry is close to the record break, first target 6.90. A close below 6.63 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 6.63 means the record breakout has failed.
• 5. Brent Crude — long. Brent is rising because traffic through Hormuz has effectively stopped: only five vessels passed the strait over the weekend (on Saturday), there were no transits on Sunday (against 31 the previous weekend), and ADNOC was attacked for a third time. Price is above all the main averages and volume flow points up. This concrete supply squeeze can test the top of the band (90). The downside is limited by demand cuts (OPEC, IEA), with an 85–90 band prevailing. Entry is close to the current price, first target 91. A close below 86.80 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 86.80 (under the 50-day average) invalidates the supply-premium thesis.
• 6. Wheat — long. Wheat gained 7.7 percent on the week, sits near its 52-week high (711.25), 3.1 percent away, and has strengthened its bull structure; volume flow points up. Yesterday's long is being carried, and this is a continuation idea. The momentum indicator is overbought and trading volume is thin, hence the low conviction and tight stop. Entry is close to the current price, first target 705, then the high. A close below 680 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 680 invalidates the bull-continuation thesis.
• 7. NVDA — long. Nvidia sits near its 52-week high (236), 4.7 percent away, in a rising structure with volume flow pointing up; the weak-dollar, Fed-on-hold regime supports risk appetite (VIX 14.25). With RSI at 63 it has room to run. Entry is close to the current price, first target 232. A close below 221 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 221 invalidates the momentum thesis.
• 8. AMD — long. AMD was the strongest stock of the day, jumping 6.5 percent, recovering its 50-day average and returning to a bull structure; volume flow points up and with RSI at 54 it has room to run. After 6.5 percent in one day it is extended, hence the low conviction and tight stop. Entry is close to the current price, first target 535. A close below 500 (under the 50-day average) breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 500 (loss of the 50-day average) invalidates the bull turn.
• 9. S&P 500 — long. The S&P 500 completed a third consecutive weekly gain and sits below its record (7,816.70) by 0.4 percent; after weak retail sales, the Fed-on-hold regime and a weak dollar are feeding risk appetite (VIX 14.25). A daily close above that record opens room toward 8,000 (JPM's target). The idea depends on that breakout being confirmed. Warning: the rise in real yields (AI bond issuance) is a structural risk. A close below 7,745 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 7,745 means the breakout has failed.
• 10. Nasdaq 100 — long. The Nasdaq 100 is in a rising sequence and near its 52-week high (30,762), 2.3 percent away; the Fed-on-hold regime and the AI theme support it, and with RSI at 60 it has room to run. The momentum indicator is high, hence the tight stop. Entry is close to the current price, and the first target is the 52-week high. A close below 29,600 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 29,600 invalidates the momentum thesis.
• 11. DAX — long. The DAX is below its new 52-week high (26,573); for days it has pierced that level intraday and given it back by the close (a bull-trap pattern — the closing filter has so far protected against entry four times). The condition for entry remains a decisive DAILY CLOSE above 26,573. If the closing confirmation comes, the first target is 27,100. RSI at 70 is overbought. A close below 26,250 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: Without a daily CLOSE above 26,573 there is no entry; a close below 26,250 breaks the thesis.
• 12. EURUSD — long. Euro/dollar is at a two-month high and has moved decisively above its 200-day average; weak retail sales cut the probability of a Fed hike in September to 30% and the dollar fell to its low of the month (the US waits while Europe and Japan raise rates). The breakout trigger fired yesterday, so this is a continuation idea. With RSI at 63 it has room; volume flow pointing down is the one warning. Entry is close to the current price, first target 1.1680. A close below 1.1530 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close below 1.1530 weakens the dollar-weakness thesis and invalidates the idea.
• 13. USDJPY — short. Dollar/yen is at 159 and both forces are now aligned in the yen's favour: BofA expects the BOJ to hike four times between September and July and take rates to 2% (the 10-year JGB at 2.925% is at a 30-year high), and weak retail sales pushed the dollar to its low of the month. The risk from rising US yields has also eased on the weak data. It is a short with entry close to the current price; first target 157.50. A close above 160.10 breaks the thesis. Invalidated if: A daily close above 160.10 means yen weakness continues and the thesis is invalid.

Market by market

• Cryptocurrencies. The divergence continues: the dollar is weak and stocks are strong, yet BTC cannot rise (ETF outflows of 389 mn, the largest in 6 weeks). The Bollinger squeeze is the tightest in months — a breakout setup. BTC is a SHORT below 62,000 (target 58k); the upside scenario is a squeeze above 64,050. ETH is range-bound and the others are washed out — neutral.
• Commodities. The weak-dollar regime is lifting metals. Gold above 4,400 (Spivak's path to 5,000) is a long. Silver above its EMA200 with 16x volume is a long. Copper is 0.2% from its record — a record-breakout long (tariffs, AI and a weak dollar). Brent: Hormuz traffic has stopped (0 vessels on Sunday) — a supply-squeeze long.
• Agricultural commodities. Wheat is +7.7% on the week, with the 52-week high 3.1% away — a bull-continuation long (thin volume, low conviction).
• Stocks. NVDA is the AI leader, with the 52-week high 4.7% away — a momentum long. AMD jumped +6.5% and returned to a bull structure — a momentum long (extended, low conviction). TSLA is a bounce, MSFT and ASML are at overbought extremes and CVX is extended after +7.2% — neutral.
• Indices. A Fed on hold plus a weak dollar is feeding risk-on. The S&P is a record-breakout long (JPM 8,000; real-yield risk noted). The Nasdaq is a momentum long toward the high. The DAX is a close-conditional trigger (it has protected against a bull trap four times).
• Currencies. The dollar is at its low of the month (the US waits while Europe and Japan raise rates). EURUSD is at a two-month high — a dollar-weakness long (the trigger fired yesterday). USDJPY is a short in the yen's favour on expectations of 4 BOJ hikes plus a weak dollar. GBPUSD and AUDUSD are overbought — neutral.

Considered, not taken

Instruments that were reviewed for this list and left without a trade, with the reason.

This page is for general information only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, and it does not take account of any recipient's objectives, financial situation or needs. Levels and commentary reflect a view at a point in time and may change without notice. Past performance does not indicate future results. Trading in leveraged products including Forex, CFDs and cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors; you may lose more than your initial investment.