26 trade ideas for 15 October 2026: 21 long and 5 short. Entry, stop and two targets are given for each, with the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.
Today's framework
Thursday 15 October 2026. Yesterday's hot inflation data started a funding story rather than a rate story: the real selling was in the unprofitable, debt-financed data centre companies, and the yield on the CoreWeave bond moving above 15% gave the credit market its first warning. Bonds being bought as a hedge against equities is the day's most important signal. Bitcoin is testing 80,000. PPI, retail sales, a speech by Warsh and the TSMC results come today.
Every idea on the list is medium-term and all are taken at the market, most of the buy side in small size. Energy was the one group that closed higher yesterday.
Trade ideas
Every idea on this list is medium-term and entry is given as a band. The note under the table gives the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.
| No | Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Entry condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptocurrencies | |||||||
| 1 | BTC | Long | 80,200 – 81,000 | 79,900 | 81,938.96 | 84,146.72 | Market |
| 2 | ETH | Long | 2,330 – 2,380 | 2,318 | 2,429.41 | 2,530.44 | Market · small size |
| Stocks | |||||||
| 3 | XOM | Long | 176.00 – 177.30 | 174.5 | 177.43 | 180 | Market |
| 4 | CVX | Long | 221.00 – 222.40 | 218.5 | 222.55 | 226 | Market |
| 5 | META | Long | 734 – 742 | 734 | 761.5 | 771.27 | Market |
| Commodities | |||||||
| 6 | Gold | Long | 4,140 – 4,175 | 4,120 | 4,193.5 | 4,224.8 | Market |
| 7 | Brent Crude | Long | 104.00 – 105.20 | 103.9 | 106.01 | 107.13 | Market |
| 8 | WTI | Long | 93.80 – 94.60 | 93.5 | 95.31 | 96.06 | Market |
| 9 | Natural Gas | Long | 3.24 – 3.28 | 3.15 | 3.3 | 3.33 | Market |
| Stocks | |||||||
| 10 | AAPL | Long | 341 – 344 | 340 | 347.09 | 348.15 | Market |
| 11 | AMD | Long | 567 – 575 | 565 | 591.88 | 606.2 | Market · small size |
| 12 | MSFT | Long | 532 – 537 | 530 | 545.75 | 551.15 | Market · small size |
| 13 | NVDA | Long | 219 – 223 | 219.5 | 226 | 228.64 | Market · small size |
| 14 | GOOGL | Long | 346 – 350 | 344 | 359.4 | 364.17 | Market · small size |
| Indices | |||||||
| 15 | FTSE 100 | Long | 10,700 – 10,730 | 10,640 | 10,762 | 10,850 | Market |
| 16 | DAX | Long | 25,280 – 25,340 | 25,230 | 25,449 | 25,600 | Market · small size |
| 17 | S&P 500 | Long | 7,700 – 7,730 | 7,690 | 7,789.15 | 7,814.15 | Market · small size |
| 18 | Nasdaq 100 | Long | 29,900 – 30,050 | 29,860 | 30,436.6 | 30,595.8 | Market · small size |
| Cryptocurrencies | |||||||
| 19 | SOL | Long | 100.80 – 102.50 | 100 | 104.87 | 108.67 | Market · small size |
| 20 | AVAX | Long | 9.40 – 9.65 | 9.33 | 10.04 | 10.4 | Market · small size |
| Commodities | |||||||
| 21 | Copper | Long | 6.55 – 6.60 | 6.53 | 6.638 | 6.675 | Market · small size |
| Currencies | |||||||
| 22 | GBPUSD | Short | 1.3250 – 1.3290 | 1.33 | 1.3188 | 1.3139 | Market |
| 23 | CHFJPY | Short | 190.20 – 190.50 | 190.6 | 189.22 | 188.5 | Market |
| Cryptocurrencies | |||||||
| 24 | XRP | Short | 1.3000 – 1.3200 | 1.336 | 1.2843 | 1.25 | Market · small size |
| Indices | |||||||
| 25 | CAC 40 | Short | 7,875 – 7,893 | 7,900 | 7,844.29 | 7,812.06 | Market |
| Commodities | |||||||
| 26 | Coffee | Short | 296 – 300 | 303.5 | 292.6 | 290.3 | Market |
- 1. BTC — long. At 80,588 dollars after touching 80,226 overnight; the 80,000 psychological threshold is being tested today and a close below it opens the 77,000 area. The source of the fall is not crypto but the debt panic in artificial intelligence infrastructure: when the yield on the CoreWeave bond moved above 15%, risk appetite was pulled from everywhere. Against that the trend is still up and the price sits above the 200-day average by 7.4%; this is the strongest setup of the day on the candidate list. Action: buy in the 80,200-81,000 band, target 81,939. Invalidated if: A daily close below 80,000.
- 2. ETH — long. At 2,349 dollars and with a 6.16% fall yesterday it was the worst of the majors; momentum is oversold at 38 and the trend has turned mixed. The liquidation data shows the disproportion: over 24 hours 286 million dollars of ether positions were closed, even though the ether futures market is about half the size of bitcoin's. When liquidity thins the same selling hits twice as hard here. Action: small buy in the 2,330-2,380 band, target 2,429. Invalidated if: A close below 2,318.
- 3. XOM — long. At 177.01 dollars and up 1.68% yesterday, within 0.2 dollars of its one-year high; the weekly gain is 7.90% and momentum is 75. In Hormuz the Singapore-flagged GFS Pride was hit by an unidentified projectile and sank, so the supply risk has become concrete. Energy was the only sector that gained on a day when everything was sold. Action: buy in the 176-177.30 band, target 177.43. Invalidated if: A close below 174.50.
- 4. CVX — long. At 222.04 dollars and with 1.98% yesterday it was among the strongest large stocks in the market; it is within 0.2 dollars of its one-year high and the weekly gain is 8.23%. It is tied to the same supply story as Exxon and momentum is 71. Action: buy in the 221-222.40 band, target 222.55. Invalidated if: A close below 218.50.
- 5. META — long. At 737.54 dollars and down 3.27% yesterday, but the second strongest setup of the day on the candidate list: two signals are positive at once and it is 7.2% ahead of the index over the past month. Momentum is healthy at 58 and the price is above the past month's average. It is on the right side of the divergence between profitable platform companies and unprofitable infrastructure companies. Action: buy in the 734-742 band, target 761.50. Invalidated if: A close below 734.
- 6. Gold — long. At 4,160 dollars and up 1.26% yesterday, showing safe-haven demand; it fell to 4,095 intraday and recovered, so there are buyers at the low. Momentum at 35 is close to oversold. Rising despite the hot inflation data shows that the market is now pricing growth risk rather than rates. Action: buy in the 4,140-4,175 band, target 4,193. Invalidated if: A close below 4,120.
- 7. Brent Crude — long. At 104.59 dollars and down 1.39% yesterday; easing back despite a ship sinking in Hormuz shows the selling was tied to general risk appetite rather than to oil. The trend is up in every time frame and the price sits above the 200-day average by 16.9%. The commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard said they were counting the moments to sink US warships. Action: buy in the 104-105.20 band, target 106.01. Invalidated if: A close below 103.90.
- 8. WTI — long. At 94.23 dollars and the strongest on the commodities side with a 6.74% weekly gain; momentum is 56 and the trend is up. The spread to Brent has narrowed to 10.36 dollars. Action: buy in the 93.80-94.60 band, target 95.31. Invalidated if: A close below 93.50.
- 9. Natural Gas — long. At 3.251 dollars and up 1.66% yesterday; the monthly gain is 11.37% and momentum is 58. Supply worry in Europe ahead of winter supports this leg, and it was one of the few items to stay higher in the general selling. Action: buy in the 3.24-3.28 band, target 3.30. Invalidated if: A close below 3.15.
- 10. AAPL — long. At 342.96 dollars and up 0.50% yesterday, the only large technology name to stay higher in the general selling; momentum is 62 and it is within 1.5% of its one-year high. Today was the day its defensive quality showed most clearly, standing entirely outside the artificial intelligence borrowing debate. Action: buy in the 341-344 band, target 347.09. Invalidated if: A close below 340.
- 11. AMD — long. At 570.82 dollars and down 5.73% yesterday; it touched 567 intraday and the weekly loss is 11.62%. Momentum has come down to 47, so the overbought condition has cleared completely and it still gives a strong setup on the candidate list. With a 13.21% monthly gain the trend holds. Action: small buy in the 567-575 band, target 591.88. Invalidated if: A close below 565.
- 12. MSFT — long. At 533.69 dollars and down 1.80% yesterday; momentum is 62 and the weekly gain is still 0.74%. The price sits above the 200-day average by 17.4% and the cloud side belongs to the profitable group. Action: small buy in the 532-537 band, target 545.75. Invalidated if: A close below 530. It is not traded on MT5.
- 13. NVDA — long. At 221.30 dollars and down 3.16% yesterday; the weekly loss is 6.81% and momentum has come down to 44. The price sits above the 200-day average by 8.3% but the trend has turned mixed. Today's TSMC results affect the direction of this name too. Action: small buy in the 219-223 band, target 226. Invalidated if: A close below 219.50.
- 14. GOOGL — long. At 347.64 dollars and down 1.74% yesterday; it touched 346.34 intraday and momentum has come down to 51. The trend is still up and the price sits above the 200-day average by 5.2%. Action: small buy in the 346-350 band, target 359.40. Invalidated if: A close below 344.
- 15. FTSE 100 — long. At 10,725 and up 0.70% yesterday, making it Europe's strongest index; the weekly gain is 2.55% and momentum is 56. Its weighting in energy and mining works while oil is at 104 dollars, and the index has turned back into an uptrend. Action: buy in the 10,700-10,730 band, target 10,762. Invalidated if: A close below 10,640.
- 16. DAX — long. At 25,299 and up 0.15% yesterday; momentum is 48 and the trend is mixed. Europe was relatively sheltered from the artificial intelligence selling in the United States because the index composition is different. Action: small buy in the 25,280-25,340 band, target 25,449. Invalidated if: A close below 25,230.
- 17. S&P 500 — long. At 7,719 and down 1.11% yesterday; it touched 7,693 intraday. Momentum has come down to 49 but the price still sits above the 200-day average by 5.6% and the trend is up. The real damage was not across the index but in the unprofitable infrastructure companies. PPI, retail sales and a speech by Warsh come today. Action: small buy in the 7,700-7,730 band, target 7,789. Invalidated if: A close below 7,690.
- 18. Nasdaq 100 — long. At 29,951 and a 2.02% fall yesterday took it below 30,000; it touched 29,861 intraday and momentum has eased to 45. The weekly loss is 3.88%. The trend is still up but the fragility has increased; today's TSMC results are decisive. Action: small buy in the 29,900-30,050 band, target 30,437. Invalidated if: A close below 29,860.
- 19. SOL — long. At 101.55 dollars and down 5.36% yesterday; the weekly loss is 12.68% and momentum is oversold at 38. The 100 dollar psychological threshold is just below. The price sits above the 200-day average by 6% and the network upgrade comes on 21 October. Action: small buy in the 100.80-102.50 band, target 104.87. Invalidated if: A close below 100.
- 20. AVAX — long. At 9.51 dollars and down 6.83% yesterday; the weekly loss is 14.53% and it has fallen below 10 dollars. Momentum is neutral at 48 and the monthly gain is still 25.8%. The price sits above the 200-day average by 8.9%. Action: small buy in the 9.40-9.65 band, target 10.04. Invalidated if: A close below 9.33.
- 21. Copper — long. At 6.566 dollars and down 0.69% yesterday; momentum is 51 and the trend is still up. It pulled back in the general risk selling but the price sits above the 200-day average by 7%. Action: small buy in the 6.55-6.60 band, target 6.638. Invalidated if: A close below 6.53.
- 22. GBPUSD — short. At 1.3243 and the cleanest currency setup on today's candidate list: the trend is down, the price is below the past month's average and momentum is mid-range at 44. The UK 30-year yield is above 6% and the budget comes on 28 October. Action: sell in the 1.3250-1.3290 band, target 1.3188. Invalidated if: A close above 1.3300.
- 23. CHFJPY — short. At 190.25 and the trend is down in every time frame; the price sits below the 200-day average by 2.7% and momentum is 44. The gap between the expectation of a rate rise in Japan and Switzerland's zero rate feeds this idea. Action: sell in the 190.20-190.50 band, target 189.22. Invalidated if: A close above 190.60.
- 24. XRP — short. At 1.2952 dollars and down 5.18% yesterday; the weekly loss is 8.88% and it has fallen 10.3% behind bitcoin over the past month. The price is below the 200-day average and it gives a sell setup on the candidate list. Momentum at 38 is close to oversold, so the size is small. Action: small sell in the 1.3000-1.3200 band, target 1.2843. Invalidated if: A close above 1.3360.
- 25. CAC 40 — short. At 7,873 and up 0.58% yesterday; momentum at 40 still makes it Europe's weakest and the price sits below the 200-day average by 3.8%. It is 10.1% behind the index over the past month. France's debt problem is not resolved. Action: sell in the 7,875-7,893 band, target 7,844. Invalidated if: A close above 7,900.
- 26. Coffee — short. At 296.75 cents and down 0.44% yesterday; momentum is 50 and the trend is down. The price sits below the 200-day average by 6.1% and it gives a pullback setup on the candidate list. Action: sell in the 296-300 band, target 292.60. Invalidated if: A close above 303.50.
This page is for general information only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, and it does not take account of any recipient's objectives, financial situation or needs. Levels and commentary reflect a view at a point in time and may change without notice. Past performance does not indicate future results. Trading in leveraged products including Forex, CFDs and cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors; you may lose more than your initial investment.