Trading Signals - 16 October 2026

23 trade ideas for 16 October 2026: 17 long and 6 short. Entry, stop and two targets are given for each, with the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.

Today's framework

Friday 16 October 2026. The rotation inside the market is the thread of the day: the Dow gained more than 500 points while the Nasdaq stayed flat, and the platform names kept separating from the infrastructure companies that carry credit risk. In oil, traffic through Hormuz is running at 68% of its reference level.

Every idea on the list is medium-term and all are taken at the market. Six are on the sell side: the metals group, two currency crosses and one crypto.

Trade ideas

Every idea on this list is medium-term and entry is given as a band. The note under the table gives the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.

• 1. BTC — long. At 82,056 dollars after falling to 79,800 overnight and returning to 82,500 within two hours; the 80,400 area was defended for the third time in a week. The structure is still mixed, though: no series of rising lows has formed, and 10x Research ties the condition for holding to staying above 78,000. Real confirmation is a close above 84,000, where Wednesday's post-inflation bounce ran out. Action: buy in the 81,400-82,300 band, target 84,147. Invalidated if: A close below 79,800.
• 2. ETH — long. At 2,442 dollars and up 3.83% yesterday, but the weekly loss is 1.31% and the structure is mixed. It sits at a technically critical place: around 2,350 a horizontal support line crosses the rising line drawn from the July lows. The horizontal line has held since 23 August; a break below that crossing would mean a serious weakening in demand. Action: small buy in the 2,420-2,470 band, target 2,530. Invalidated if: A close below 2,350.
• 3. XOM — long. At 174.68 dollars with a rising structure and in the strong band of relative performance; both measures point the same way. It fell 1.32% yesterday with the pullback in oil, but the weekly gain is 3.67% and momentum is 68. Traffic through Hormuz is at only 68% of its reference, and on ING's view the risk premium does not resolve without a US-Iran agreement. Action: buy in the 174-175.50 band, target 177.43. Invalidated if: A close below 173.60.
• 4. MSFT — long. At 539.44 dollars with the price making successively higher highs and higher lows; over the past month it returned 18.4% more than the market. It rose 1.08% yesterday, decoupling from the technology selling, and the weekly gain is 3.22%. The cloud side is not on the credit-risk leg of the artificial intelligence funding debate. Action: buy in the 536-541 band, target 545.75. Invalidated if: A close below 531. It is not traded on MT5.
• 5. AAPL — long. At 342 dollars with a rising structure; it is only 1.8% below its one-year high and momentum is 61. It was the calmest large technology name of the week, because neither the Chinese memory competition nor data centre borrowing concerns this company directly. Action: buy in the 341-343 band, target 347.85. Invalidated if: A close below 340.
• 6. AMZN — long. At 254.76 dollars with a rising structure; it stayed flat at 0.27% yesterday and momentum is mid-range at 50. Because the cloud side rests on contracted revenue it is among the names least affected by the week's selling. Action: buy in the 253-256 band, target 259.65. Invalidated if: A close below 248.50.
• 7. CVX — long. At 219.32 dollars and in the strong band of relative performance; the weekly gain is 3.67% and momentum is 66. It eased 1.22% yesterday with oil, and that pullback improved the entry level. The structure is still mixed, so the size is small. Action: small buy in the 218.50-220 band, target 222.55. Invalidated if: A close below 218.
• 8. META — long. At 736.72 dollars and in the strong band of relative performance, one of the two highest-scoring setups on the candidate list; it is 14.9% ahead of the index over the past month. But the structure is mixed and it stayed flat yesterday, so the size was kept small. The platform side keeps separating from the infrastructure companies that carry credit risk. Action: small buy in the 734-740 band, target 743.97. Invalidated if: A close below 715.50.
• 9. WTI — long. At 95.53 dollars and the strongest in commodities with a 4.42% weekly gain; on Thursday it rose more than 3% on the hurricane-driven stock draw. It pulled back 2.49% yesterday and that improved the entry. Momentum is 61 and the trend is up. Action: buy in the 95-96 band, target 98.32. Invalidated if: A close below 93.58.
• 10. Brent Crude — long. At 105.01 dollars and 0.70% higher on the week; it fell 0.86% yesterday. On Kpler's data, traffic through Hormuz is 11.62 million barrels a day, 68% of normal, and the firm expects a slow recovery without a political agreement. The only concrete factor on the downside is the United States considering lifting its shadow-fleet sanctions. Action: buy in the 104.80-105.60 band, target 106.39. Invalidated if: A close below 103.38.
• 11. Natural Gas — long. At 3.199 dollars and down 1.14% yesterday; the monthly gain is 10.65% and momentum is 60. The price is just below the past month's high and the supply worry ahead of winter keeps supporting it. Action: buy in the 3.19-3.23 band, target 3.32. Invalidated if: A close below 3.15.
• 12. Copper — long. At 6.6365 dollars and up 1.92% yesterday; the weekly gain is 1.80% and the price is only 2.8% below its one-year high. It carried the pressure of the global growth worry through the week, but yesterday's recovery was strong. Action: buy in the 6.60-6.65 band, target 6.675. Invalidated if: A close below 6.50.
• 13. FTSE 100 — long. At 10,840 and with 1.08% yesterday it was Europe's strongest; the weekly gain is 3.82% and momentum is 62. Its weighting in energy and mining works directly while oil is at 105 dollars and copper recovers. The price is 1.4% below its one-year high. Action: buy in the 10,800-10,850 band, target 10,868. Invalidated if: A close below 10,695.
• 14. SOL — long. At 105.72 dollars and up 3.70% yesterday; the weekly loss is still 3.56% and the structure is mixed. The Alpenglow upgrade comes on 21 October and aims to cut finality to 150 milliseconds, a concrete technical development. Action: small buy in the 104.50-106 band, target 108.67. Invalidated if: A close below 100.62.
• 15. AVAX — long. At 10.075 dollars and with 5.62% yesterday it was among the strong names in crypto; the monthly gain is 38.58% and it sits above the 200-day average by 15.7%. The structure is mixed, so the size is small. Action: small buy in the 9.95-10.15 band, target 10.40. Invalidated if: A close below 9.34.
• 16. S&P 500 — long. At 7,744 and up 0.33% yesterday; there is a sharp rotation inside it, with the Dow gaining more than 500 points while the Nasdaq stayed flat. Momentum is 52 and the structure is mixed. It is about 1% lower on the week. Action: small buy in the 7,730-7,750 band, target 7,789. Invalidated if: A close below 7,669.
• 17. DAX — long. At 25,383 and up 0.33% yesterday; the weekly gain is 2.32% and momentum is 50. The structure is mixed and Europe was relatively sheltered from the artificial intelligence selling in the United States. Action: small buy in the 25,340-25,400 band, target 25,449. Invalidated if: A close below 25,133.
• 18. XRP — short. At 1.3361 dollars with a falling structure, so one of the two measures says sell outright; it is 13% behind the benchmark over the past month and gives a sell setup on the candidate list. The structural reason in the report matters: circulating supply has grown since 2017 by 63%, so even if market value holds the price cannot reach the old high. Spot volume fell 53.5% and active addresses 10.7%. Action: sell in the 1.3380-1.3500 band, target 1.2840. Invalidated if: A close above 1.3480.
• 19. CHFJPY — short. At 190.91 with a falling structure; the trend is down in every time frame and the price sits below the 200-day average by 2.4%. It rose 0.53% yesterday, which improved the entry level. The gap between the expectation of a rate rise in Japan and Switzerland's zero rate feeds this idea. Action: sell in the 190.80-191.15 band, target 189.75. Invalidated if: A close above 191.20.
• 20. GBPUSD — short. At 1.3297 and it gives a sell setup on the candidate list; it rose 0.50% yesterday and the UK budget comes on 28 October. Momentum is 41 and the structure is mixed. The two-day recovery offers a better level for a sell, but the structure gives no confirmation, so the size is small. Action: small sell in the 1.3300-1.3340 band, target 1.3224. Invalidated if: A close above 1.3380.
• 21. Silver — short. At 57.86 dollars with a falling structure; the trend is down in every time frame and the price is 52% below its one-year high. It rose 1.80% yesterday, but that is a reaction inside a six-week decline. Momentum at 36 is close to oversold, so the size is small. Action: small sell in the 57.90-58.30 band, target 56.84. Invalidated if: A close above 58.60.
• 22. Platinum — short. At 1,641.60 dollars with a falling structure; the trend is down and the price is 42% below its one-year high. It rose 1.92% yesterday, which offers a better level for the entry. Momentum is 37. Action: small sell in the 1,645-1,660 band, target 1,610. Invalidated if: A close above 1,672.
• 23. Palladium — short. At 1,135.50 dollars with a falling structure; the monthly loss is 12.66% and it is the weakest of the metals group. It recovered 1.29% yesterday but momentum is 36 and the price sits below the 200-day average by 15.7%. Action: small sell in the 1,140-1,155 band, target 1,121. Invalidated if: A close above 1,165.

This page is for general information only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, and it does not take account of any recipient's objectives, financial situation or needs. Levels and commentary reflect a view at a point in time and may change without notice. Past performance does not indicate future results. Trading in leveraged products including Forex, CFDs and cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors; you may lose more than your initial investment.