Trading Signals - 21 October 2026

25 trade ideas for 21 October 2026: 12 long and 13 short. Entry, stop and two targets are given for each, with the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.

Today's framework

Wednesday 21 October 2026. Two threads run through the list. Oil keeps rising on the supply side: the Revolutionary Guard said it had detonated a mine in Hormuz and set two tankers alight, and Brent is above 110 dollars. The other is the question of what artificial intelligence spending returns, which Meta and Tesla both answer with results today.

Twelve of the ideas are long and thirteen short, all taken at the market. Two more instruments were reviewed and left without a position until those results are out.

Trade ideas

Every idea on this list is medium-term and entry is given as a band. The note under the table gives the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.

• 1. BTC — long. At 82,672 dollars and up 1.12% yesterday; slightly ahead of the market over the past month. The price pulled back after touching 83,439 and needs to move above 84,000 before next week's Fed meeting. JPMorgan has given a return forecast for bitcoin for the first time: 10% a year in the ten-year base case and minus 9.7% in the bear case. Action: buy in the 82,500-83,100 band, target 83,439. Invalidated if: A close below 82,600.
• 2. ETH — short. At 2,439.32 dollars with the price making successively lower highs and lower lows; the monthly loss is 7.78% and it is 8.2% behind bitcoin over the past month. It rose 1.70% yesterday, which offers a better level for the sell. While the structure is down, recoveries count as selling opportunities. Action: sell in the 2,445-2,470 band, target 2,400. Invalidated if: A close above 2,478.
• 3. XOM — long. At 177.86 dollars with the price making successively higher highs and higher lows; over the past month it returned 19.1% more than the market and the monthly gain is 12.36%. It is only 1.3% below its one-year high. Brent is above 110 dollars and Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it had detonated a mine in Hormuz and set two tankers alight. Action: buy in the 177-178.50 band, target 180.26. Invalidated if: A close below 174.90.
• 4. CVX — long. At 225.71 dollars with the price holding its rising high-low structure; over the past month it is 20% ahead of the market and it is within 0.7% of its one-year high. It rose 0.60% yesterday, outperforming Exxon, and the monthly gain is 10.82%. Action: buy in the 224.50-226.50 band, target 227.28. Invalidated if: A close below 221.50.
• 5. Brent Crude — long. At 110.57 dollars and the price has moved into a rising high-low structure; the weekly gain is 4.62% and the monthly 10.20%. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it had detonated a mine in Hormuz, and on Goldman's figures the global crude freight rate has passed 20 dollars a barrel; a year ago it was 3 dollars. That cost now threatens refinery margins directly. Action: buy in the 110-111 band, target 111.97. Invalidated if: A close below 108.80.
• 6. WTI — long. At 99.26 dollars with the price in a rising high-low structure; the weekly gain is 5.44%. It pulled back 2.49% yesterday, which created a better entry after Monday's high of 110.48. The spread to Brent is 11.30 dollars and the freight cost keeps that gap open. Action: buy in the 98.80-99.80 band, target 101.04. Invalidated if: A close below 97.90.
• 7. MSFT — long. At 531.87 dollars with the price sustaining its rising high-low structure; over the past month it is 16.2% ahead of the market and the monthly gain is 6.03%. It fell 0.31% yesterday and touched 525.84 on Friday; that pullback improved the entry and the structure is intact. In the debate over the return on spending, the cloud side is on the revenue-generating side. Action: buy in the 530-533 band, target 534.21. Invalidated if: A close below 525.80. It is not traded on MT5.
• 8. AMZN — long. At 262.63 dollars with the price in a rising high-low structure; over the past month it is 7% ahead of the market and the weekly gain is 1.57%. It was flat yesterday but had risen 4.98% on Monday. Because the cloud side rests on contracted revenue it is far from the risk of project cancellation. Action: buy in the 261-263.50 band, target 265.34. Invalidated if: A close below 260.
• 9. AAPL — long. At 339.50 dollars with the price holding its rising high-low structure; it is only 2.5% below its one-year high. It fell 1% yesterday, which improved the entry. Staying outside the debate over the return on artificial intelligence infrastructure spending keeps the divergence going. Action: buy in the 338.50-340.50 band, target 343.06. Invalidated if: A close below 338.70.
• 10. S&P 500 — long. At 7,712.57 and up 0.28% yesterday; the Dow gained 530 points and 3M rose 5% after raising its full-year profit forecast. Of the companies that have reported, 86% beat estimates. The price is in a rising structure and sits above the 200-day average by 5.3%. Action: small buy in the 7,705-7,725 band, target 7,748. Invalidated if: A close below 7,668.
• 11. FTSE 100 — long. At 10,733 and down 0.29% yesterday; the price holds its rising structure and sits above the 200-day average by 3.2%. Its energy weighting supports it while Brent is at 110 dollars. UK inflation data comes today. Action: small buy in the 10,720-10,750 band, target 10,768. Invalidated if: A close below 10,673.
• 12. SOL — long. At 105.71 dollars and up 1.07% yesterday; the largest network upgrade since 2020 goes live today and transaction finality will fall from about six seconds to 150 milliseconds. Because validator votes move off-chain there will be a sharp fall in the transaction count; that is not a problem but it can distort the data reading in the first days. The structure is mixed, so the size is small. Action: small buy in the 105-106.50 band, target 108.25. Invalidated if: A close below 103.60.
• 13. Copper — long. At 6.6025 dollars and up 0.55% yesterday; the price is only 3.3% below its one-year high. The structure is mixed, but the technology recovery in Korea supports industrial metals. The size is small. Action: small buy in the 6.59-6.62 band, target 6.6265. Invalidated if: A close below 6.53.
• 14. ASML — short. At 1,630.84 dollars and the price has moved into a falling high-low structure; over the past month it is 6.1% behind the market and the weekly loss is 5.06%. It fell 0.99% yesterday and is close to the past month's low. Australia's NextDC cutting its revenue forecast by a third because of a delay in power supply shows the problem is in executing projects rather than in demand; the equipment side is the link affected over the longest term by those delays. Action: sell in the 1,635-1,650 band, target 1,613.54. Invalidated if: A close above 1,654.
• 15. AMD — short. At 534.74 dollars and 13.7% behind the market over the past month; the weekly loss is 11.69% and the monthly 13.12%. It fell 0.62% yesterday and touched 524.60. The chip side is the group where the risk of project cancellation is felt most directly. Action: sell in the 536-545 band, target 524.60. Invalidated if: A close above 548.20.
• 16. XRP — short. At 1.3339 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; it is 9.7% behind bitcoin over the past month and the monthly loss is 5.43%. It rose 2.39% yesterday, but that is a reaction which does not change the structure. The constant growth in circulating supply makes a recovery in the price harder. Action: sell in the 1.3350-1.3450 band, target 1.3100. Invalidated if: A close above 1.3470.
• 17. Palladium — short. At 1,090 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; the monthly loss is 16.34% and this is the worst performance in the metals group. It fell 0.87% yesterday and touched 1,088, so it keeps making new lows. Action: sell in the 1,092-1,104 band, target 1,088. Invalidated if: A close above 1,110.
• 18. Silver — short. At 57.53 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; the monthly loss is 12.61% and it is 52.6% below its one-year high. It fell 0.31% yesterday and the attempt to recover stopped at 58.42. Action: sell in the 57.60-58.00 band, target 57.36. Invalidated if: A close above 58.42.
• 19. Platinum — short. At 1,644.70 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; the monthly loss is 8.55% and it is 42.3% below its one-year high. It turned back after touching 1,664.70 yesterday. Action: sell in the 1,648-1,662 band, target 1,642. Invalidated if: A close above 1,670.
• 20. CAC 40 — short. At 7,838.49 and 4.1% behind the market over the past month; the monthly loss is 3.69% and the price sits below the 200-day average by 10.5%. It fell 0.38% yesterday and remains Europe's weakest index. The street unrest in France and the budget uncertainty are unresolved. Action: sell in the 7,845-7,870 band, target 7,783. Invalidated if: A close above 7,895.
• 21. TSM — short. At 425.08 dollars and 5.3% behind the market over the past month; the weekly loss is 4.50%. It rose 1.16% yesterday, which created a better level for the sell. Despite the sharp recovery in Korea this name could not decouple. Action: small sell in the 426-430 band, target 416.12. Invalidated if: A close above 432.
• 22. AVAX — short. At 9.647 dollars and 10.2% behind bitcoin over the past month; the monthly loss is 14.73% and the weekly 5.68%. It rose 0.86% yesterday but keeps staying below 10 dollars. Action: small sell in the 9.66-9.78 band, target 9.39. Invalidated if: A close above 9.92.
• 23. ADA — short. At 0.2223 dollars and 8.5% behind bitcoin over the past month; the weekly loss is 5.81%. It rose 2.44% yesterday, which offers a better level for the sell. Action: small sell in the 0.2230-0.2260 band, target 0.2147. Invalidated if: A close above 0.2270.
• 24. Gold — short. At 4,138.90 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; the monthly loss is 5.59% and it sits below the 200-day average by 4.1%. It fell 0.09% yesterday. JPMorgan puts its ten-year return expectation for gold at 5.5%, below both equities and bonds. Action: small sell in the 4,142-4,152 band, target 4,124. Invalidated if: A close above 4,175.
• 25. CHFJPY — short. At 191.56 with the price in a falling high-low structure; it sits below the 200-day average by 2%. But it is 0.81% higher on the week and touched 192.04 yesterday, so the recovery continues. Action: small sell in the 191.65-191.85 band, target 191.33. Invalidated if: A close above 192.05.

Considered, not taken

Instruments that were reviewed for this list and left without a trade, with the reason.

This page is for general information only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, and it does not take account of any recipient's objectives, financial situation or needs. Levels and commentary reflect a view at a point in time and may change without notice. Past performance does not indicate future results. Trading in leveraged products including Forex, CFDs and cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors; you may lose more than your initial investment.