Trading Signals - 22 October 2026

23 trade ideas for 22 October 2026: 9 long and 14 short. Entry, stop and two targets are given for each, with the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.

Today's framework

Thursday 22 October 2026. Supply risk in oil is no longer an event but a condition: the United States is pulling diplomats' families out of Saudi Arabia, the Revolutionary Guard says it hit four ships in the Gulf, and Brent keeps rising. The second thread is France, where the 10-year yield has passed 5% for the first time since 2002 with a Moody's review tomorrow.

Nine of the ideas are long and fourteen short, all taken at the market. The metals keep making new lows and gold fell without the safe-haven bid appearing, so the sell side carries most of the list.

Trade ideas

Every idea on this list is medium-term and entry is given as a band. The note under the table gives the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.

• 1. BTC — long. At 82,826 dollars after rising to 84,898 overnight and falling to 82,600 within six hours; 84,000 was broken but could not be held. The exchange traded funds took 1.08 billion dollars over three days, but that pace lags past sharp rallies. 82,500 is the only level that matters today; staying below it brings 80,000 back into view. Action: buy in the 82,600-83,200 band, target 84,377. Invalidated if: A close below 82,500.
• 2. ETH — short. At 2,438.86 dollars with the price making successively lower highs and lower lows; the monthly loss is 12.15% and it is 7.7% behind bitcoin over the past month. It was flat yesterday and touched 2,482 overnight. While the structure is down, recoveries are selling opportunities. Action: sell in the 2,445-2,480 band, target 2,405. Invalidated if: A close above 2,526.
• 3. XOM — long. At 178.09 dollars with the price making successively higher highs and higher lows; the monthly gain is 12.21% and it is only 1.2% below its one-year high. The United States is pulling diplomats' families out of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis hit Dammam airport and an oil field. The supply risk is not easing; it is becoming structural. Action: buy in the 177.50-178.50 band, target 179.21. Invalidated if: A close below 176.15.
• 4. CVX — long. At 226.78 dollars with the price holding its rising high-low structure; the monthly gain is 12.04% and it is within 0.7% of its one-year high. It rose 0.47% yesterday. It is tied to the same supply story as Exxon but has run stronger over the past month. Action: buy in the 226-227.50 band, target 228.48. Invalidated if: A close below 224.19.
• 5. Brent Crude — long. At 111.16 dollars with the price in a rising high-low structure; it rose 2.18% yesterday and the monthly gain is 10.78%. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it had hit four ships in the Gulf and that three more had struck mines west of Hormuz. On the New York Times' reporting, the United States and Israel have prepared concrete strike plans for after the midterm elections on 3 November. Action: buy in the 110.50-111.50 band, target 111.97. Invalidated if: A close below 109.70.
• 6. WTI — long. At 99.07 dollars with the price in a rising high-low structure; the weekly gain is 5.24%. It pulled back 2.67% yesterday, which improved the entry. The spread to Brent has opened to 12 dollars and the freight cost feeds that gap. Action: buy in the 98.80-99.50 band, target 101.04. Invalidated if: A close below 97.72.
• 7. AAPL — long. At 343.99 dollars with the price sustaining its rising high-low structure; it is only 1.2% below its one-year high and it rose 1.32% yesterday. It is the only large technology name outside the debate over spending plans; it is neither cutting capital expenditure nor issuing new shares. Action: buy in the 343-345 band, target 345.25. Invalidated if: A close below 338.83.
• 8. AMZN — long. At 262.37 dollars with the price in a rising high-low structure; the weekly gain is 3.26% and the monthly 2.90%. It was flat yesterday. Because the cloud side rests on contracted revenue it is far from the funding debate. Action: buy in the 261.50-263 band, target 264.36. Invalidated if: A close below 259.29.
• 9. MSFT — long. At 532.95 dollars with the price holding its rising high-low structure; the monthly gain is 7.02% and it rose 0.20% yesterday. The price sits above the 200-day average by 16.2%. Action: buy in the 531-534 band, target 533.28. Invalidated if: A close below 525. It is not traded on MT5.
• 10. SOL — long. At 105.07 dollars and down 0.61% yesterday; the largest network upgrade since 2020 is complete, transaction finality has fallen to about 150 milliseconds and the switchover took 900 milliseconds. Of 654 validators, 446 approved it. The structure is mixed, so the size is small. Action: small buy in the 104.80-106 band, target 107.50. Invalidated if: A close below 104.72.
• 11. Silver — short. At 55.96 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; the monthly loss is 15.12% and it is 53.9% below its one-year high. A 2.55% fall yesterday made a new low and it sits below the 200-day average by 13%. Action: sell in the 56.10-56.60 band, target 55.84. Invalidated if: A close above 58.11.
• 12. Platinum — short. At 1,591.80 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; a 3.33% fall yesterday made it the worst of the metals group and the monthly loss is 11.49%. It is 44.2% below its one-year high. Action: sell in the 1,595-1,615 band, target 1,589.40. Invalidated if: A close above 1,637.
• 13. Palladium — short. At 1,057 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; it fell 2.55% yesterday and the monthly loss is 18.25%. It touched 1,054, so it keeps making new lows. Action: sell in the 1,060-1,075 band, target 1,054. Invalidated if: A close above 1,094.
• 14. Natural Gas — short. At 2.759 dollars and, with a 13.73% weekly loss, the worst in commodities; the monthly loss is 6.95% and the price sits below the 200-day average by 10.8%. It has fallen three days running and the support ahead of winter has disappeared completely. Action: sell in the 2.765-2.790 band, target 2.726. Invalidated if: A close above 2.805.
• 15. XRP — short. At 1.3444 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; the monthly loss is 12.49% and it is 7.8% behind bitcoin over the past month. It rose 0.80% yesterday and touched 1.3698 overnight, which created a better level for the sell. Action: sell in the 1.3480-1.3600 band, target 1.3314. Invalidated if: A close above 1.3700.
• 16. ASML — short. At 1,676.69 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; the monthly loss is 4.07%. It rose 2.81% yesterday, but that reaction does not change the structure. Lam Research, another maker of chip production equipment, falling 7% on a weak outlook shows the same link is under pressure. Action: sell in the 1,678-1,690 band, target 1,661.62. Invalidated if: A close above 1,692.
• 17. GOOGL — short. At 334.76 dollars and a 1.62% fall yesterday made it the worst of large technology; the weekly loss is 3.70% and the monthly 4.67%. The price is left above the 200-day average by only 1.1% and the structure has turned mixed. Action: sell in the 335-338 band, target 330.38. Invalidated if: A close above 340.
• 18. CAC 40 — short. At 7,833, and the French 10-year yield has for the first time since 2002 passed 5%; Moody's reviews the country's Aa3 rating tomorrow and the outlook is already negative, so the next move is more likely to be a downgrade. The price sits below the 200-day average by 10% and it is behind the market over the past month. Action: sell in the 7,840-7,865 band, target 7,783. Invalidated if: A close above 7,890.
• 19. AVAX — short. At 9.393 dollars and 11.3% behind bitcoin over the past month; a 2.58% fall yesterday made it the weakest in crypto and the monthly loss is 16.37%. Action: sell in the 9.42-9.55 band, target 9.318. Invalidated if: A close above 9.73.
• 20. ADA — short. At 0.2188 dollars and 7.8% behind bitcoin over the past month; it fell 1.57% yesterday and the monthly loss is 10.73%. The price sits below the 200-day average by 4.6%. Action: sell in the 0.2195-0.2230 band, target 0.2183. Invalidated if: A close above 0.2270.
• 21. Gold — short. At 4,087.90 dollars and a 1.50% fall yesterday took it to 4,082; the monthly loss is 6.59% and it sits below the 200-day average by 5.3%. The structure has turned mixed but the fall continues, and the safe-haven bid did not appear this time. Action: small sell in the 4,095-4,125 band, target 4,082.40. Invalidated if: A close above 4,164.
• 22. Copper — short. At 6.4735 dollars and down 1.06% yesterday; the weekly loss is 2.09% and the price has moved below the past month's average. China's CSI 300 index falling 1.7% and heading for a bear market puts pressure on industrial metals. The structure is mixed. Action: small sell in the 6.48-6.53 band, target 6.4635. Invalidated if: A close above 6.585.
• 23. CHFJPY — short. At 191.56 with the price in a falling high-low structure; it sits below the 200-day average by 2%. It was flat yesterday and touched 191.94 overnight. Action: small sell in the 191.70-191.90 band, target 191.31. Invalidated if: A close above 191.95.

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