Trading Signals - 4 November 2026

20 trade ideas for 4 November 2026: 4 long and 16 short. Entry, stop and two targets are given for each, with the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.

Today's framework

Wednesday 4 November 2026. The election results set the tone. The crypto sector spent 176 million dollars and its political weight was tested and found limited; Musk spent 475 million and most of those he backed lost, with Tesla falling more than 6% after the close. The moratorium proposal in the Texas governor's race bears directly on the data centre build schedule.

Four of the ideas are long and sixteen short. Nine are taken at the market and two on a pullback; the rest wait for an upward reaction before the sell is taken. The buy side is energy, Tesla and the DAX.

Trade ideas

Entry is given as a band, or as the single level a conditional idea needs. The note under the table gives the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.

• 1. BTC — short. At 77,876 dollars after touching 75,736 overnight and recovering; the price is making successively lower highs and lower lows, but holding above 77,000 is a positive. The crypto sector spent 176 million dollars on the election and 75 million of that went to two races it lost; in Ohio, Sherrod Brown won despite the 63 million dollars spent against him. The sector's political weight was tested and came out limited. The price sits above the 200-day average by 2.6%. Action: sell in the 77,876-78,164 band, target 76,797. Invalidated if: A close above 79,394.
• 2. ETH — short. At 2,294 dollars and it recovered 2.14% yesterday; the price is in a falling high-low structure and the monthly loss is 15.87%. The price sits just below the 200-day average and momentum is 36. The recovery did not change the structure. Action: sell in the 2,294-2,306 band, target 2,249. Invalidated if: A close above 2,358.
• 3. XOM — long. At 177.46 dollars with the price making successively higher highs and higher lows; over the past month it returned 11.5% more than the market and the monthly gain is 8.21%. It pulled back 1.23% yesterday, which improved the entry. Energy is one of the few areas outside the debate over restricting data centres. Action: buy in the 177.20-177.46 band, target 179.74. Invalidated if: A close below 174.42.
• 4. CVX — long. At 225.27 dollars with the price holding its rising high-low structure; over the past month it is 12.1% ahead of the market and the monthly gain is 9.11%. It pulled back 1.10% yesterday and momentum is 55. The same thesis as Exxon. Action: buy on a pullback into the 224.46-225.17 band, target 227.77. Invalidated if: A close below 221.50.
• 5. TSLA — long. At 398.50 dollars with the price in a rising high-low structure; over the past month it is 8.1% ahead of the market and momentum is 59. But Musk spent 475 million dollars on the election and most of those he backed lost; the stock fell more than 6% after the close. The structure is up and the news is down; because of that contradiction the size is small. Action: small buy in the 396.53-398.50 band, target 405.86. Invalidated if: A close below 388.14.
• 6. DAX — long. At 25,864.62 and down 0.45% yesterday; the trend is up and momentum is 56. The price is in a rising structure and Europe is relatively sheltered from the election effect in the United States. The structure is up but yesterday's fall weakened the confirmation. Action: small buy on a pullback into the 25,756-25,803 band, target 25,973. Invalidated if: A close below 25,562.
• 7. GOOGL — short. At 280.03 dollars with the price making successively lower highs and lower lows; over the past month it is 16.8% behind the market and the weekly loss is 12.65%. The price sits below the 200-day average by 14.8% and momentum at 22 is deep in oversold, so the size is small. The risk of restrictions on data centres bears directly on this company. Action: small sell on an upward reaction into the 280.14-281.61 band, target 274.73. Invalidated if: A close above 287.75.
• 8. TSM — short. At 404.80 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; over the past month it is 13.3% behind the market and the monthly loss is 16.67%. It recovered 1.55% yesterday, which created a better level for the sell. The moratorium proposal in the Texas governor's race affects the timing of chip demand directly. Action: sell on an upward reaction into the 406.35-408.37 band, target 398.96. Invalidated if: A close above 416.77.
• 9. ASML — short. At 1,552.14 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; over the past month it is 12.5% behind the market and the monthly loss is 16.44%. The price sits just below the 200-day average and momentum is 39. Equipment orders depend on the data centre build schedule. Action: sell on an upward reaction into the 1,564-1,573 band, target 1,531. Invalidated if: A close above 1,610.
• 10. NVDA — short. At 206.69 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; over the past month it is 10.8% behind the market and the monthly loss is 13.48%. It recovered 2.29% yesterday but the price is left above the 200-day average by only 0.6%. Momentum is 39. Action: sell on an upward reaction into the 207.98-208.94 band, target 204.44. Invalidated if: A close above 212.96.
• 11. Nasdaq 100 — short. At 28,180.26 and up 0.68% yesterday, though futures fell more than 2% at one point; the index is 10.1% below its high and momentum is 35. The Texas moratorium proposal bears directly on the index's heaviest names. But the selling is a repricing rather than a panic, so the size is small. Action: small sell on an upward reaction into the 28,229-28,308 band, target 27,941. Invalidated if: A close above 28,635.
• 12. SOL — short. At 92.92 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; the monthly loss is 23.59% and the price sits below the 200-day average by 3.6%. Momentum at 29 is deep in oversold, so the size is small. Action: small sell in the 92.92-93.32 band, target 90.59. Invalidated if: A close above 96.08.
• 13. XRP — short. At 1.2769 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; the monthly loss is 16.03% and the price sits below the 200-day average by 5%. It recovered 2.16% yesterday, which offers a better level for the sell. Action: sell in the 1.2769-1.2834 band, target 1.2483. Invalidated if: A close above 1.3165.
• 14. AVAX — short. At 8.573 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; the monthly loss is 22.79% and over the past month it is 10.3% behind bitcoin. Momentum is 37. Action: sell in the 8.5730-8.6240 band, target 8.2774. Invalidated if: A close above 8.9748.
• 15. ADA — short. At 0.1901 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; the monthly loss is 26.80% and the price sits below the 200-day average by 15.1%. Over the past month it is 13% behind bitcoin and momentum is 32. Action: sell in the 0.1901-0.1911 band, target 0.1838. Invalidated if: A close above 0.1987.
• 16. Silver — short. At 51.07 dollars and up 2.99% yesterday; the price is in a falling high-low structure and the trend is down in every time frame. It is 57.9% below its one-year high and momentum at 28 is close to oversold, so the size is small. The recovery did not change the structure. Action: small sell in the 51.07-51.27 band, target 50.24. Invalidated if: A close above 52.22.
• 17. Platinum — short. At 1,449.40 dollars and up 1.19% yesterday; the price is in a falling high-low structure and the trend is down. It is 49.2% below its one-year high and momentum is 26. Action: sell on an upward reaction into the 1,451-1,456 band, target 1,433. Invalidated if: A close above 1,477.
• 18. Palladium — short. At 969.50 dollars and with 4.25% yesterday it was the strongest of the metals; but the price is in a falling high-low structure and the trend is down. It is 55.3% below its one-year high and momentum at 17 is very deep in oversold, so the size is small. Action: small sell on an upward reaction into the 970.00-973.00 band, target 959.02. Invalidated if: A close above 985.48.
• 19. Copper — short. At 6.367 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; it fell 0.18% yesterday and the weekly loss is 3.85%. Momentum is 42 and the price is below the past month's average. A moratorium on data centre construction is the most concrete risk to copper demand. Action: sell on an upward reaction into the 6.3869-6.4018 band, target 6.3322. Invalidated if: A close above 6.4638.
• 20. Natural Gas — short. At 2.88 dollars with the price in a falling high-low structure; the trend is down in every time frame and the price sits below the 200-day average by 6.2%. Momentum is 48. Action: sell on an upward reaction into the 2.8849-2.9070 band, target 2.8040. Invalidated if: A close above 2.9990.

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