4 trade ideas for 6 March 2026: 1 long and 3 short. Entry, stop and two targets are given for each, with the reasoning and the level at which the idea is abandoned.
Today's framework
Friday 6 March 2026 is US payrolls day: a number above expectations would add to selling pressure. The 10Y Treasury yields 4.15% and the expectation of a Fed cut has fallen below 50%.
In crypto, spot selling pressure (CVD) has turned negative across the group and the large names are being sold on hourly breaks of support. In commodities the geopolitical floor is solid — WTI at $81, Brent at $85 and the Strait of Hormuz closed — which keeps gold a buy on a test of its EMA 20, while silver and copper are waiting inside their ranges.
Trade ideas
The price under each name is the last price when the list was prepared. The entry condition says whether the idea is taken at the market or only once a stated level or confirmation is met.
| No | Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Entry condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BTCLast 70,575 | Short | 70,575 – 72,500 | 74,500 | 67,000 | 64,000 | Hourly close below $70,000 |
| 2 | ETHLast 2,071 | Short | 2,041 – 2,093 | 2,300 | 1,900 – 1,850 | 1,650 | Daily close below the EMA 20 ($2,041) with CVD staying negative |
| 3 | XRPLast 1.3989 | Short | 1.39 – 1.42 | 1.47 | 1.33 | 1.20 | Hourly close below $1.40 on high volume |
| 4 | GoldLast 5,111 | Long | 5,083 – 5,111 | 4,980 | 5,400 | 5,600 | Bullish candle on a test of the EMA 20 ($5,083) |
- 1. BTC — short. Price is $70,575: the pullback from the $74,000 high continues (-0.44% on the day). EMA 20: $69,191 (below price), EMA 50: $74,165 (distant resistance). The MACD histogram at +1,144 is down from yesterday and momentum is weakening. CVD at -1,050 is negative, showing spot selling pressure. RSI is 51.03, above neutral but with a weak momentum base. Key levels: $74,000 is where the 61.8% Fib and the EMA 50 coincide (rejected twice). Bitunix's liquidation map shows long concentration at $70,000 and a secondary cluster at $64,000. The 10Y Treasury yields 4.15% and the expectation of a Fed cut has fallen below 50%. NFP is today: a number above expectations means additional selling pressure. The entry zone sits below resistance at the EMA 50 (74,165); the stop is a daily close above the EMA 50; the first target is support and the second is the long-liquidation zone. Invalidated if: A daily close above $74,500.
- 2. ETH — short. Price is $2,071 (-0.06% on the day). EMA 20: $2,041 (price is just above it, so fragility is high). CVD at -6,030 is a BIG CHANGE: it was positive at +2,690 yesterday and has swung to -6,030 today. Spot selling began as the Culper Research short thesis spread. RSI at 49.05 has moved to just below neutral. The Fusaka upgrade cut fees by 90% and validator returns have fallen. BitMine holds 4.4M ETH with a $7.4B unrealized loss (45% underwater). In 2026 Vitalik has sold about $40M of ETH. EMA 200: $2,920 (far away; the macro structure is broken). The entry zone is the squeeze area at the EMA 20 (2,041); the stop is a close above the EMA 50; the first target is psychological support and the second is Culper's target zone. Invalidated if: A close above $2,300.
- 3. XRP — short. Price is $1.3989 (-0.34% on the day): it has fallen below the EMA 20 ($1.4173). It was above the EMA 20 yesterday and broke it today, a bearish signal. CVD at -2.7M shows selling pressure that has been building since yesterday. RSI at 45.18 is below neutral. The MACD histogram at +0.016 is very close to zero, so there is almost no momentum. EMA 200: $2.02 is far away and the macro structure is broken. Price has been rejected three times from $1.43-45 resistance, and volume on the last rejection was 74% above average. $1.40 is critical: if it breaks, $1.33 follows, and analysts see a longer-term reset zone at $1.00. The entry zone is the $1.40 breakdown area; the stop sits above $1.45 resistance; the first target is support. Invalidated if: A daily close above $1.45.
- 4. Gold — long. Price is $5,111 (+0.53% on the day). EMA 20: $5,083, EMA 50: $4,868. RSI at 53.18 is neutral to positive, with the RSI MA at 56.26 (above the RSI MA = a strong trend). The MACD histogram at -18.33 is negative: an in-trend consolidation. CVD at -40,820 turned negative today after being positive yesterday. This may be short-term profit-taking; if the EMA 20 holds as support it is a BUY opportunity. The geopolitical floor is solid: WTI at $81 (the largest daily rise since 2020), Brent at $85, and the Strait of Hormuz closed. BofA: ‘The operation has lifted oil by about 18% since the end of February.’ The Mag7 over 3 months is -6.5% while gold is +26%. The entry zone is a test of support at the EMA 20 (5,083); the stop is a close below the EMA 20; the first target is near the February high and the second is the all-time-high target. Invalidated if: A daily close below $4,980.
Considered, not taken
Instruments that were reviewed for this list and left without a trade, with the reason.
| Instrument | Side | Why it was not taken |
|---|---|---|
| SOL | Wait | Price is $88.05 (-0.81% on the day). EMA 20: $87.13 (price is just above it, so that support is critical). The MACD histogram at +1.91 is positive but down from yesterday. CVD at -105,930 is a SHARP DETERIORATION: it was +38,540 yesterday and is -105,930 today, the worst CVD reading in this group. RSI at 48.60 is approaching the area below neutral. The ETF story is strong: $1.5B accumulated, relative to market cap 2 times the BTC ETF. But the short-term technical picture has broken down. If BTC holds $70K, the EMA 20 ($87.13) can act as support. Long if the EMA 20 holds, BTC is stable above $70K and CVD recovers; short if BTC is below $70K and the EMA 20 breaks. Levels watched: zone 85.00–88.05 (inside the band around the EMA 20 at 87.13), stop 82.00 (a close below the EMA 20), targets 97.60 (EMA 50) and 100 (psychological). |
| AVAX | Wait | Price is $9.37 (-0.21%). EMA 20: $9.26 (price is just above it). The MACD histogram at +0.15 is positive but weak. CVD at -87,610 is the 2nd weakest reading in this group (after SOL). RSI at 49.41 is right in the middle, undecided. The EMA 200 at $15.34 is far away and sloping down — the macro structure is broken. If BTC selling starts, AVAX is the first altcoin to be sold. Short entry: BTC weakens and the EMA 20 ($9.26) breaks, with a target of $8.50. Long entry: a breakout above $10.15 (EMA 50) with BTC above $74K. Levels watched: zone 9.26–9.45 (the EMA 20 at 9.26 as support and resistance), stop 8.80, targets 10.15 (EMA 50) and 11.50 (interim resistance). |
| Silver | Wait | Price is $84.09 (+2.23% on the day — it recovered today). EMA 20: $84.91 (price is just below it — critical). EMA 50: $81.43 (support). RSI at 49.47 is exactly neutral. The MACD histogram at -0.17 is slightly negative and flat. CVD at +26,180 is positive (the healthiest in this group). Price is approaching the EMA 20 — it will either break it or be rejected. The oil spike (+8.5% yesterday) raises inflation expectations, which is fundamental support for silver. If gold leads, silver follows with a lag. Long entry: a daily close above the EMA 20 ($84.91) with rising CVD. Short entry: below $79.00. Levels watched: zone 81.43–84.91 (consolidation in the EMA 20-50 band), stop 79.00 (below the EMA 50), targets 89.00 and 95.00. |
| Copper | Wait | Price is $5.857 (+0.39% on the day). EMA 20: $5.910 (mild resistance), EMA 50: $5.830 (support). RSI at 47.92 is slightly below neutral. The MACD histogram at -0.012 is almost zero and flat. CVD at +2,640 is neutral to slightly positive. Price remains squeezed between the EMA 50 and the EMA 20, a waiting zone. The picture for copper is contradictory: Trump's 50% copper tariff could raise the US domestic price, but if global growth slows, industrial demand falls. The February high was $6.40 (on the combined effect of Hormuz and tariffs). Aluminium at $3,300/ton (the highest since Russia-Ukraine) reflects similar structural pressure. As a barometer of global growth, copper is currently sending an ‘uncertain’ message. Long entry: a close above the EMA 20 ($5.910) with macro risk-on. Short entry: a close below the EMA 50 ($5.830) with a recession signal. Levels watched: zone 5.830–5.910 (consolidation in the EMA 50-20 band), stop 5.7 (a close below the EMA 50), targets 6.1 (above the consolidation) and 6.4 (the February high). |
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